Taurek, numbers and probabilities

In his paper, “Should the Numbers Count?" John Taurek imagines that we are in a position such that we can either save a group of five people, or we can save one individual, David. We cannot save David and the five. This is because they each require a life-saving drug. However, David needs all of the drug if he is to survive, while the other five need only a fifth each.Typically, people have argued as if there was a choice to be made: either numbers matter, in which case we should save the greater number, or numbers don't matter, but rather there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, and therefore we should toss a coin. My claim is that we do not have to make a choice in this way. Rather, numbers do matter, but it doesn't follow that we should always save the greater number. And likewise, there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, but it doesn't follow that we should always toss a coin.In addition, I argue that a similar approach can be applied to situations in which we can save one person or another, but the chances of success are different

Clarification of the Bootstrap Percolation Paradox

We study the onset of the bootstrap percolation transition as a model of generalized dynamical arrest. We develop a new importance-sampling procedure in simulation, based on rare events around "holes", that enables us to access bootstrap lengths beyond those previously studied. By framing a new theory in terms of paths or processes that lead to emptying of the lattice we are able to develop systematic corrections to the existing theory, and compare them to simulations. Thereby, for the first time in the literature, it is possible to obtain credible comparisons between theory and simulation in the accessible density range.Comment: 4 pages with 3 figure

Age at birth of first child and coronary heart disease risk factors at age 53 years in men and women: British birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between parental age at birth of first child and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in men and women. To investigate whether the associations are explained by childhood predictors of age at parenthood or adult lifestyle factors related to child rearing. METHODS: Data from 2540 men and women, with CHD risk factors measured at age 53 years, from a birth cohort study of individuals born in Britain in 1946 (Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development) and followed up regularly throughout life, were analysed. RESULTS: Younger age at birth of first child in both men and women was associated with poorer mean body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio, blood pressure (BP), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and glycated haemoglobin levels. Mean BMI decreased from 28.0 kg/m(2) (95% CI 27.2 to 28.8) in the teenage motherhood group to 26.8 kg/m(2) (25.9 to 27.7) in the oldest motherhood group (> or =30 years). For men, the equivalent mean values were 28.5 kg/m(2) (27.3 to 29.8) and 27.1 kg/m(2) (26.7 to 27.6). Associations with adiposity, lipid measures and glycated haemoglobin were largely explained by childhood antecedents and adult social and lifestyle variables. Associations with BP remained robust to adjustment: systolic blood pressure remained highest in teenage parents (7.5 mmHg (1.0 to 13.9) difference in women and 8.6 mmHg (0.4 to 16.8) difference in men between the youngest and the oldest parenthood groups) CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle factors, rather than the biological impact of pregnancy, explain the relationship between age at motherhood and CHD risk factors. Family-based lifestyle interventions targeted at young parents may improve their future CHD risk

Physical activity is prospectively associated with adolescent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to assess whether objectively measured physical activity at mean ages 12 and 14 years are prospectively associated with ultrasound scan liver fat and stiffness (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase [AST], and [gamma]-glutamyl transferase [GGT]) assessed at mean age 17.8 years. Methods: Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Total physical activity (counts per minute) and minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using ActiGraph accelerometers at mean ages 12 and 14 years. Results: Greater total physical activity and MVPA at ages 12 and 14 years were associated with lower odds of liver fat and lower GGT levels at mean age 17.8 years, such as per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the confounder adjusted odds ratio of liver fat was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27–0.84). Associations attenuated after additional adjustment for fat mass as a potential confounder (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.65 [95% CI 0.35–1.21]) or a potential mediator (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.59 [95% CI 0.32–1.09]). Results did not further attenuate after additional adjustment for insulin resistance. There was some evidence that greater total physical activity and MVPA at age 12 years were associated with the higher AST levels. Conclusions: Adolescents who were more active in childhood have lower odds of fatty liver and lower GGT levels. These findings are likely to be, at least in part, explained by adiposity

An effective long-range attraction between protein molecules in solutions studied by small angle neutron scattering

Small angle neutron scattering intensity distributions taken from cytochrome C and lysozyme protein solutions show a rising intensity at very small wave vector, Q, which can be interpreted in terms of the presence of a weak long-range attraction between protein molecules. This interaction has a range several times that of the diameter of the protein molecule, much greater than the range of the screened electrostatic repulsion. We show evidence that this long-range attraction is closely related to the type of anion present and ion concentration in the solution

Weight trajectories through infancy and childhood and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adolescence: the ALSPAC study

Background and Aims: Adiposity is a key risk factor for NAFLD. Few studies have examined prospective associations of infant and childhood adiposity with subsequent NAFLD risk. We examined associations of weight-for-height trajectories from birth to age 10 with liver outcomes in adolescence, and assessed the extent to which associations are mediated through fat mass at the time of outcome assessment.<p></p> Methods: Individual trajectories of weight and height were estimated for participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using random-effects linear-spline models. Associations of birthweight (adjusted for birth length) and weight change (adjusted for length/height change) from 0–3 months, 3 months–1 y, 1–3 y, 3–7 y, and 7–10 y with ultrasound scan (USS) determined liver fat and stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) at mean age 17.8 y were assessed with linear and logistic regressions. Mediation by concurrent fat mass was assessed with adjustment for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y.<p></p> Results: Birth weight was positively associated with liver stiffness and negatively with ALT and AST. Weight change from birth to 1 y was not associated with outcomes. Weight change from 1–3 y, 3–7 y, and 7–10 y was consistently positively associated with USS and blood-based liver outcomes. Adjusting for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y attenuated associations toward the null, suggesting associations are largely mediated by concurrent body fatness.<p></p> Conclusions: Greater rates of weight-for-height change between 1 y and 10 y are consistently associated with adverse liver outcomes in adolescence. These associations are largely mediated through concurrent fatness

Maternal thyroid function and child educational attainment: prospective cohort study

Objective: To determine if first trimester maternal thyroid dysfunction is a critical determinant of child scholastic performance and overall educational attainment. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort in the UK. Participants: 4615 mother-child pairs with an available first trimester sample (median 10 weeks gestation, interquartile range 8-12). Exposures: Free thyroxine, thyroid stimulating hormone, and thyroid peroxidase antibodies assessed as continuous measures and the seven clinical categories of maternal thyroid function. Main outcome measures: Five age-specific national curriculum assessments in 3580 children at entry stage assessment at 54 months, increasing up to 4461 children at their final school assessment at age 15. Results: No strong evidence of clinically meaningful associations of first trimester free thyroxine and thyroid stimulating hormone levels with entry stage assessment score or Standard Assessment Test scores at any of the key stages was found. Associations of maternal free thyroxine or thyroid stimulating hormone with the total number of General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs) passed (range 0-16) were all close to the null: free thyroxine, rate ratio per pmol/L 1.00 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.01); and thyroid stimulating hormone, rate ratio 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02). No important relationship was observed when more detailed capped scores of GCSEs allowing for both the number and grade of pass or when language, mathematics, and science performance were examined individually or when all educational assessments undertaken by an individual from school entry to leaving were considered. 200 (4.3%) mothers were newly identified as having hypothyroidism or subclinical hypothyroidism and 97 (2.1%) subclinical hyperthyroidism or hyperthyroidism. Children of mothers with thyroid dysfunction attained an equivalent number of GCSEs and equivalent grades as children of mothers with euthyroidism. Conclusions: Maternal thyroid dysfunction in early pregnancy does not have a clinically important association with impaired child performance at school or educational achievement

Behavioural early-life exposures and body composition at age 15 years

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have demonstrated associations between some early-life exposures and later obesity, but most have used body mass index in childhood or adulthood as the outcome. The objective of this study was to investigate whether early-life exposures were associated with directly measured fat and lean mass in adolescence. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This study used data on 4750 mother–offspring pairs, collected as a part of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Bristol, UK between 1991 and 1992; associations between behavioural exposures occurring from conception up to 5 years of age (maternal and paternal smoking during pregnancy, breastfeeding, age at introduction to solids, dietary patterns and physical inactivity during early childhood) and offspring body composition measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at ~ 15 years were assessed. RESULTS: After full adjustment for potential confounders, maternal smoking during pregnancy, having a junk food diet and spending more time watching television in early childhood were all associated with higher fat mass at age 15, whereas maternal smoking, having a healthy diet and playing computer games more frequently in early childhood were all associated with a higher lean mass at age 15. Associations with paternal smoking were generally weaker for both fat and lean mass, but as there was no strong statistical evidence for maternal vs paternal differences, confounding by social factors rather than a direct effect of maternal smoking cannot be ruled out. Early feeding was not associated with fat or lean mass at age 15. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide compelling evidence for associations between most early-life factors and body composition in adolescence. However, possible associations with dietary patterns and physical inactivity in early childhood require further investigation in other cohorts that have direct measurements of adolescent body composition.SD Leary, DA Lawlor, G Davey Smith, MJ Brion and AR Nes