A Vision for IMF Surveillance

The ongoing review of the IMF, initiated in 2005 by Managing Director De Rato, presents an excellent opportunity to re-examine the role, functions and governance of the Fund. In particular, the objective, scope and conduct of IMF surveillance have been identified as a key area for renewal. In this paper, we offer a new vision for IMF surveillance. There are two main parts to our proposal. First, we develop "Guidelines for Economic Policy Frameworks" that outline the objective and scope of surveillance. They delineate the benchmarks against which members economic policy frameworks can be assessed. The Guidelines also serve to clarify the principles under which surveillance is conducted, and reaffirm members' commitments to the surveillance process under their Article IV obligations. The second element of our proposal is a "Surveillance Remit". The Remit defines the aim of surveillance and the obligations of the Fund to pursue this goal. As such the Remit creates a mechanism to hold the Fund accountable. An important implication of the Remit is that it requires the Fund to become more independent in its day-to-day operations. In addition, we propose procedures for communicating surveillance and for assessing the Fund's conduct of surveillance. Taken together, the various elements reinforce each other, providing a clear role for the IMF, as well as its member countries, in the surveillance process. This principles-based approach can bolster the credibility and legitimacy of surveillance, and ultimately its effectiveness, to the benefit of all members.International topics; Financial stability

Introduction to the Special Edition on Administration and Administrators in Canadian Colleges and Universities: The Specificity of Higher Education Administration and Future Directions for Research

This article introduces the Special Edition devoted to Canadian higher education administration and administrators. It situates its contributing articles within the context of the dominant themes noticed in the extant research literature: neo-liberal and managerial shifts, gender and race career asymmetries, macro- and micro-politics, and professional identities; and highlights their salient contributions. It identifies some of the confusion around the specificity of higher education administration and presents a definition that clarifies how administration differs from management, leadership, and governance, as well as circumscribes the role of academic and career administrators in relation to those of administrative staff members. The article closes with recommendations for future research.Le présent article, en guise d’introduction au numéro spécial sur l’administration de l’enseignement supérieur canadien, présente les articles du numéro spécial et montre comment ils contribuent aux thématiques explorées par la recherche actuelle, c’est-à-dire la recrudescence des approches néolibérales et managériales en administration, les inégalités persistantes liées au genre et à la racialisation des administrateur/rice/s, les comportements politiques des organisations et des individus, et l’identité professionnelle des administrateur/rice/s. L’article met aussi en lumière la confusion qui règne autour de l’utilisation des termes administration, gestion, leadership, gouvernance et administrateur/rice. En réponse, il présente une définition de l’administration de l’enseignement supérieur qui précise sa spécificité et identifie comment celle-ci se distingue de la gestion, du leadership et de la gouvernance, en plus d’identifier les différences entre les termes administrateur/rice/s et personnels administratifs. L’article se termine en proposant quelques pistes à suivre pour les recherches à venir

Spatio-temporal modeling of avalanche frequencies in the French Alps

AbstractAvalanches threaten mountainous regions, and probabilistic long term hazard evaluation is a useful tool for land use planning and the definition of appropriate mitigation measures. This communication focuses on avalanches counts in the French Alps, and investigates their fluctuations in space and time within a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework.We have at our disposal a 60 year data set covering the whole French Alps. The considered time scale is the winter. The elementary spatial scale is the township. It is small enough to allow information transfer between neighboring paths and large enough to avoid errors in paths localization. Data are standardized with a variable integrating the number of surveyed paths.A hierarchical Poisson-lognormal model appears well-adapted to depict the observation process with such discrete data. The spatial and temporal effects are assumed independent, and they are considered in the latent layer of the model. The temporal trend is modeled with a cubic spline whereas different spatial dependence sub-models are tested. The latter ones work on different types of supports (continuous field and discrete grid), and at different embedded spatial scales. Model inference and predictive sampling are carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. The spatial structure explains the larger part of the relative risks. The spatial dependence is visible at the scale of townships, but with a short range. At the larger scale of the massifs, the spatial dependence is weaker.The regional coherence of the results with the number of avalanche releases suggests that we may also search for other spatially structured variables implicated in the magnitude of avalanches that could help transfer information from one path to another

CAV-2 Vector Development and Gene Transfer in the Central and Peripheral Nervous Systems

The options available for genetic modification of cells of the central nervous system (CNS) have greatly increased in the last decade. The current panoply of viral and nonviral vectors provides multifunctional platforms to deliver expression cassettes to many structures and nuclei. These cassettes can replace defective genes, modify a given pathway perturbed by diseases, or express proteins that can be selectively activated by drugs or light to extinguish or excite neurons. This review focuses on the use of canine adenovirus type 2 (CAV-2) vectors for gene transfer to neurons in the brain, spinal cord, and peripheral nervous system. We discuss (1) recent advances in vector production, (2) why CAV-2 vectors preferentially transduce neurons, (3) the mechanism underlying their widespread distribution via retrograde axonal transport, (4) how CAV-2 vectors have been used to address structure/function, and (5) their therapeutic applications

Linguistic processes do not beat visuo-motor constraints, but they modulate where the eyes move regardless of word boundaries: Evidence against top-down word-based eye-movement control during reading

International audienceWhere readers move their eyes, while proceeding forward along lines of text, has long been assumed to be determined in a top-down word-based manner. According to this classical view, readers of alphabetic languages would invariably program their saccades towards the center of peripheral target words, as selected based on the (expected) needs of ongoing (word-identification) processing, and the variability in within-word landing positions would exclusively result from systematic and random errors. Here we put this predominant hypothesis to a strong test by estimating the respective influences of language-related variables (word frequency and word predictability) and lower-level visuo-motor factors (word length and saccadic launch-site distance to the beginning of words) on both word-skipping likelihood and within-word landing positions. Our eye-movement data were collected while forty participants read 316 pairs of sentences, that differed only by one word, the prime; this was either semantically related or unrelated to a following test word of variable frequency and length. We found that low-level visuo-motor variables largely predominated in determining which word would be fixated next, and where in a word the eye would land. In comparison, language-related variables only had tiny influences. Yet, linguistic variables affected both the likelihood of word skipping and within-word initial landing positions, all depending on the words’ length and how far on average the eye landed from the word boundaries, but pending the word could benefit from peripheral preview. These findings provide a strong case against the predominant word-based account of eye-movement guidance during reading, by showing that saccades are primarily driven by low-level visuo-motor processes, regardless of word boundaries, while being overall subject to subtle, one-off, language-based modulations. Our results also suggest that overall distributions of saccades’ landing positions, instead of truncated within-word landing-site distributions, should be used for a better understanding of eye-movement guidance during reading

Estimating risk of emergency room visits for asthma from personal versus fixed site measurements of NO2

Background: We examined the impact of data source and exposure measurement error for ambient NO2 on risk estimates derived from a case-crossover study of emergency room visits for asthma in Windsor, Canada between 2002 and 2009. Methods: Paired personal and fixed-site NO2 data were available from an independent population (47 children and 48 adults) in Windsor between 2005 and 2006. We used linear regression to estimate the relationship and measurement error variance induced between fixed site and personal measurements of NO2, and through a series of simulations, evaluated the potential for a Bayesian model to adjust for this change in scale and measurement error. Finally, we re-analyzed data from the previous case-crossover study adjusting for the estimated change in slope and measurement error. Results: Correlations between paired NO2 measurements were weak (R2≤0.08) and slopes were far from unity (0.0029≤β≤0.30). Adjusting the previous case-crossover analysis suggested a much stronger association between personal NO2 (per 1 ppb) (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.276, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): 1.034, 1.569) and emergency room visits for asthma among children relative to the fixed-site estimate (OR=1.024, 95% CrI 1.004–1.045). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that risk estimates based on fixed-site NO2concentrations may differ substantially from estimates based on personal exposures if the change in scale and/or measurement error is large. In practice, one must always keep the scale being used in mind when interpreting risk estimates and not assume that coefficients for ambient concentrations reflect risks at the personal level

Extreme ambient temperatures and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits: assessing risk by comorbid health conditions in a time series study.

BACKGROUND: Extreme ambient temperatures are an increasing public health concern. The aim of this study was to assess if persons with comorbid health conditions were at increased risk of adverse cardiorespiratory morbidity during temperature extremes. METHODS: A time series study design was applied to 292,666 and 562,738 emergency room (ER) visits for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively, that occurred in Toronto area hospitals between April 1st 2002 and March 31st 2010. Subgroups of persons with comorbid health conditions were identified. Relative risks (RRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Poisson regression model with distributed lag non-linear model, and were adjusted for the confounding influence of seasonality, relative humidity, day-of-the-week, outdoor air pollutants and daily influenza ER visits. Effect modification by comorbid health conditions was tested using the relative effect modification (REM) index. RESULTS: Stronger associations of cardiovascular disease ER visits were observed for persons with diabetes compared to persons without diabetes (REM = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.27) with exposure to the cumulative short term effect of extreme hot temperatures (i.e. 99th percentile of temperature distribution vs. 75th percentile). Effect modification was also found for comorbid respiratory disease (REM = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.44) and cancer (REM = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.49) on respiratory disease ER visits during short term hot temperature episodes. The effect of extreme cold temperatures (i.e. 1st percentile of temperature distribution vs. 25th percentile) on cardiovascular disease ER visits were stronger for individuals with comorbid cardiac diseases (REM = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.06 - 2.23) and kidney diseases (REM = 2.43; 95% CI: 1.59 - 8.83) compared to those without these conditions when cumulated over a two-week period. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of those most susceptible to temperature extremes is important for public health officials to implement adaptation measures to manage the impact of extreme temperatures on population health

The effect modification of extreme temperatures on mental and behavior disorders by environmental factors and individual-level characteristics in Canada.

OBJECTIVE Ambient extreme temperatures have been associated with mental and behavior disorders (MBDs). However, few studies have assesed whether vulnerability factors such as ambient air pollution, pre-existing mental health conditions and residential environmental factors increase susceptibility. This study aims to evaluate the associations between short-term variations in outdoor ambient extreme temperatures and MBD-related emergency department (ED) visits and how these associations are modified by vulnerability factors. METHODS We conducted a case-crossover study of 9,958,759 MBD ED visits in Alberta and Ontario, Canada made between March 1st, 2004 and December 31st, 2020. Daily average temperature was assigned to individual cases with ED visits for MBD using gridded data at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate associations between extreme temperatures (i.e., risk of ED visit at the 2.5th percentile temperature for cold and 97.5th percentile temperature for heat for each health region compared to the minimal temperature risk) and MBD ED visits. Age, sex, pre-existing mental health conditions, ambient air pollution (i.e. PM2.5, NO2 and O3) and residential environmental factors (neighborhood deprivation, residential green space exposure and urbanization) were evaluated as potential effect modifiers. RESULTS Cumulative exposure to extreme heat over 0-5 days (odds ratio [OR] = 1.145; 95% CI: 1.121-1.171) was associated with ED visits for any MBD. However, cumulative exposure to extreme cold was associated with lower risk of ED visits for any MBD (OR = 0.981; 95% CI: 0.976-0.987). We also found heat to be associated with ED visits for specific MBDs such as substance use disorders, dementia, neurotic disorders, schizophrenia and personality behavior disorder. Individuals with pre-existing mental health conditions, those exposed to higher daily concentrations of NO2 and O3 and those residing in neighborhoods with greater material and social deprivation were at higher risk of heat-related MBD ED visits. Increasing tree canopy coverage appeared to mitigate risks of the effect of heat on MBD ED visits. CONCLUSIONS Findings provide evidence that the impacts of heat on MBD ED visits may vary across different vulnerability factors

Maternal Exposure to Aeroallergens and the Risk of Early Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Daily changes in aeroallergens during pregnancy could trigger early labor, but few investigations have evaluated this issue. This study aimed to investigate the association between exposure to aeroallergens during the week preceding birth and the risk of early delivery among preterm and term pregnancies. METHODS: We identified data on 225,234 singleton births that occurred in six large cities in the province of Ontario, Canada, from 2004 to 2011 (April to October) from a birth registry. We obtained daily counts of pollen grains and fungal spores from fixed-site monitoring stations in each city and assigned them to pregnancy period of each birth. Associations between exposure to aeroallergens in the preceding week and risk of delivery among preterm (<37 gestational weeks), early-term (37-38 weeks), and full-term (≥39 weeks) pregnancies were evaluated with Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal characteristics, meteorologic parameters, and air pollution concentrations, and pooled across the six cities. RESULTS: The risk of delivery increased by 3% per interquartile range width (IQRw = 22.1 grains/m) increase in weed pollen the day before birth among early-term (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.05) and full-term pregnancies (HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.04). Exposure to fungal spores cumulated over 0 to 2 lagged days was associated with increased risk of delivery among full-term pregnancies only (HR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.12). We observed no associations among preterm deliveries. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing concentrations of ambient weed pollen and fungal spores may be associated with earlier delivery among term births