What Do Budget Deficits Do?

This paper discusses the effects of budget deficits on the economy in four steps. First, it reviews standard theory about how budget deficits influence saving, investment, the trade balance, interest rates, exchange rates, and long-term growth. Second, it offers a rough estimate of the magnitude of some of the effects. Third, it discusses how budget deficits affect economic welfare. Finally, it considers the possibility that continuing budget deficits in a country could lead to a 'hard landing' in which the demand for the country's assets suddenly collapses.

A Sticky-Price Manifesto

Macroeconomists are divided on the best way to explain short-run economic fluctuations. This paper presents the case for traditional theories based on short-run price stickiness. It discusses the fundamental basis for believing in this class of macreconomic models. It also discusses recent research on the microeconomic foundations of sticky prices.

Intergenerational Risk Sharing in the Spirit of Arrow, Debreu, and Rawls, with Applications to Social Security Design

This paper examines the optimal allocation of risk in an overlapping-generations economy. It compares the allocation of risk the economy reaches naturally to the allocation that would be reached if generations behind a Rawlsian 'veil of ignorance' could share risk with one another through complete Arrow-Debreu contingent-claims markets. The paper then examines how the government might implement optimal intergenerational risk sharing with a social security system. One conclusion is that the system must either hold equity claims to capital or negatively index benefits to equity returns.

The NAIRU in Theory and Practice

This paper discusses the NAIRU - the non-accelerating inflation rate unemployment. It first considers the role of the NAIRU concept in business cycle theory, arguing that this concept is implicit in any model in which monetary policy influences both inflation and unemployment. The exact value of the NAIRU is hard to measure, however, in part because it changes over time. The paper then discusses why the NAIRU changes and, in particular, why it fell in the United States during the 1990s. The most promising hypothesis is that the decline in the NAIRU is attributable to the acceleration in productivity growth.

The NAIRU in Theory and Practice

This paper discusses the NAIRU -- the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It first considers the role of the NAIRU concept in business cycle theory, arguing that this concept is implicit in any model in which monetary policy influences both inflation and unemployment. The exact value of the NAIRU is hard to measure, however, in part because it changes over time. The paper then discusses why the NAIRU changes and, in particular, why it fell in the United States during the 1990s. The most promising hypothesis is that the decline in the NAIRU is attributable to the acceleration in productivity growth.

How Much Care Do the Aged Receive from Their Children? A Bimodal Picture of Contact and Assistance

This paper presents some preliminary findings about contact between the aged and their children based on a new survey of the aged and their children, entitled The Hebrew Rehabilitation Center for the Aged-NBER (HRC-NBER) Child Survey. Data on extended families is quite limited. The HRC-NBER Child Survey represents one of the few attempts to collect economic and demographic data on the elderly and their children. While these data will be used in future,research to test structural models of the living arrangements, the purposes of the current paper are to describe the survey and to examine contact between the elderly and their children. While our findings are preliminary and will be updated and expanded as we receive more data, it appears that a significant minority of the elderly, many of whom need assistance with the activities of daily living, have either no children or have only limited contact with their children. Contact between children and the vulnerable elderly appears to be less than that between children and the nonvulnerable elderly, and the amount of contact between children and the institutionalized elderly seems the least of all. In addition, although many of the parents in our data are very poor, financial support from children to parents, other than in the form of shared housing, is uncommon. The impression given by these data is that many of the elderly are very well cared for by their children, while a significant minority either have no children or have no children who provide significant time or care. Some of the findings for this sample are striking: (1) over a fifth of the elderly have no children. (2) over one half of the elderly either do not have a daughter or do not have a daughter who lives within an hour of them. (3) over half of single elderly males and females and over two fifths of vulnerable single elderly males and females live completely alone. (4) of the elderly who have children, fewer than a quarter live with their children. (5) a small fraction of elderly with children hear from them at most on a yearly basis. (6) almost 10 percent of the children of the elderly have at most yearly contact. (7) financial assistance from children to the elderly, even in cases where the elderly are quite poor, is extremely rare. (8) in a typical month over a quarter of elderly who have children do not physically spend time with their children.

Mendocino power plant site ecological study, Quarterly Report No. 1; July 1 - September 30, 1971

This report is the first quarterly report submitted in partial fulfillment of Research Contract No. S-1902 between the Department of Fish and Game and the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. Through this contract the Department of Fish and Game is to conduct a pre-operational ecological study to establish a base line inventory of the marine biota with special reference to fish and to abalone, including food chains. Quarterly reports will be followed by annual reports. The first annual report will cover all work from September 1971 through December 1972. Full tables and species lists will be included in each annual report