The Contribution of Intergenerational Transfers to Total Wealth: A Reply

This paper responds to Franco Modigliani's recent critique of our 1981 paper on the importance of intergenerational transfers for U.S. savings. Modigliani's paper is the latest salvo in a long running debate over the importance of intergenerational transfers in explaining savings behavior. While Modigliani corrects an algebraic error of minor consequences in our earlier paper, its correction does not, in our view, call into question the fundamental conclusion that life cycle considerations can account for only a small part of aggregate capital accumulation. Inevitably, it is possible to challenge aspects of any complex empirical calculation. Modigliani's attacks seem to us incorrect in most cases and generally fail to address our primary method of determining the importance of intergenerational transfers. Many considerations at least as important as those raised by Modigilani suggest that our method produces an overestimate of the importance of life cycle wealth.

The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation

This paper uses historicaI U.S. data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation. The evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate U .S. capital formation; only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced u, life-cycle or "hump" savings. A major difference between this study and previous investigations of this issue is the use of more accurate longitudinal age-earnings and age-consumption profiles. These profiles are simply too flat to generate substantial lifecycle savings. This paper suggests the importance of and need for substantially greater research and data collection on intergenerational transfers. fife-cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of apical accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenerational transfers.

Tax Incidence

This paper surveys major issues in the theory of tax incidence. These include the incidence of taxes in dynamic as well as static economies and open as well as closed economies. The survey does not represent a comprehensive review of the literature, rather it is offered to the reader as a pedoqogical piece that may be of use in teaching the theory of tax incidence.

The Adequacy of Savings

This paper uses newly available data from the Social Security Administration's Retirement History Survey to examine the adequacy of saving. This data source is particularly rich; survey data for respondents covering the ydars 1969, 197 1( and 1953 have been matched with Social Security earnings records covering the years dating back to 1951. In addition to information on the path of lifetime earnhngs, the survey contains extensive data on individual asset holdings. The evidence indicates that surprisingly few couples currantly suffer significant reductions in their standard of living in their old age. This appears due, in large part, to our compulsory savings institutions, the Social Security and private pension systems. These institutions have succeeded in redistributing the lifetime consumption of private individuals from their youth to their old age.

Status of Muon Collider Research and Development and Future Plans

The status of the research on muon colliders is discussed and plans are outlined for future theoretical and experimental studies. Besides continued work on the parameters of a 3-4 and 0.5 TeV center-of-mass (CoM) energy collider, many studies are now concentrating on a machine near 0.1 TeV (CoM) that could be a factory for the s-channel production of Higgs particles. We discuss the research on the various components in such muon colliders, starting from the proton accelerator needed to generate pions from a heavy-Z target and proceeding through the phase rotation and decay ($\pi \to \mu \nu_{\mu}$) channel, muon cooling, acceleration, storage in a collider ring and the collider detector. We also present theoretical and experimental R & D plans for the next several years that should lead to a better understanding of the design and feasibility issues for all of the components. This report is an update of the progress on the R & D since the Feasibility Study of Muon Colliders presented at the Snowmass'96 Workshop [R. B. Palmer, A. Sessler and A. Tollestrup, Proceedings of the 1996 DPF/DPB Summer Study on High-Energy Physics (Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA, 1997)].Comment: 95 pages, 75 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Special Topics, Accelerators and Beam

Testing the predictability and efficiency of securitized real estate markets

This paper conducts tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for 14 national public real estate markets. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamics and determine the trading strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local real estate index returns and to test the hypothesis that public real estate stock prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning (1993) are employed. Weak-form market efficiency is tested directly using non-parametric runs tests. Empirical evidence shows that weekly stock prices in major securitized real estate markets do not follow a random walk. The empirical findings of return predictability suggest that investors might be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold strategy

Further evidence on the (in-) efficiency of the U.S. housing market

Extending the controversial findings from relevant literature on testing the efficient market hypothesis for the U.S. housing market, the results from the monthly and quarterly transaction-based Case-Shiller indices from 1987 to 2009 provide further empirical evidence on the rejection of the weak-form version of efficiency in the U.S. housing market. In addition to conducting parametric and non-parametric tests, we apply technical trading strategies to test whether or not the inefficiencies can be exploited by investors earning excess returns. The empirical findings suggest that investors might be able to obtain excess returns from both autocorrelation- and moving average-based trading strategies compared to a buy-and-hold strategy