The association of overweight and obesity with incident heart failure

Obesity has been identified as a risk factor for heart failure. The importance of a measure of central adiposity (waist-hip ratio) as compared to BMI has not been extensively studied. The increasing prevalence of both obesity and heart failure (HF) make this association an important topic for prevention. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study is an ongoing bi-racial population-based cohort (45-65 years) from 4 U.S. communities with 14 years median follow-up for incident hospitalized or fatal heart failure. Waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist circumference and BMI were measured at the baseline visit (1987-1989). After exclusion of prevalent HF, missing anthropometry measures, and poorly represented race groups, there were N=8,031 women and N=6,659 men at baseline. BMI was categorized as normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m2), and obese (BMI [greater than or equal to] 30 kg/m2). WHR and waist circumference were divided into gender-specific tertiles. Models were adjusted for demographics, alcohol use, smoking, age, and educational level using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Because HF is a syndrome without clear objective diagnostic criteria, we evaluated the effect of outcome misclassification with Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. The impact of a hypothetical reduction in obesity and overweight on heart failure incidence was estimated by calculation of the generalized impact fraction. With stratification by race and gender, the adjusted hazard ratios for the comparison of the highest category of each anthropometric measure (obese) to the lowest were similar and [greater than or equal to] 1.0. Results from the sensitivity analysis estimated the effect of outcome misclassification was to bias our findings toward the null. Calculation of the generalized impact fraction estimated that a hypothetical 30 % reduction in the prevalence of obesity would reduce incident HF by 6.7 % in the population. Our findings do not support the superiority of a measure of central adiposity (WHR) over BMI for the prediction of incident HF. A 6.7 % reduction in heart failure, the estimated impact of a 30 % reduction in obesity, would result in 44,220 fewer incident heart failure cases per year. Such evaluations are vital to prioritize and inform future prevention programs regarding the possible impact of their efforts

Prognostic Importance of Dyspnea for Cardiovascular Outcomes and Mortality in Persons without Prevalent Cardiopulmonary Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

The relationship between dyspnea and incident heart failure (HF) and myocardial infarction (MI) among patients without previously diagnosed cardiopulmonary disease is unclear. We studied the prognostic relevance of self-reported dyspnea for cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in persons without previously diagnosed cardiopulmonary disease

Electrocardiographic Advanced Interatrial Block and Atrial Fibrillation Risk in the General Population

Although advanced inter-atrial block (aIAB) is an established electrocardiographic phenotype, its prevalence, incidence, and prognostic significance in the general population are unclear. We examined the prevalence, incidence, and prognostic significance of aIAB in 14,625 (mean age=54±5.8 years; 26% black; 55% female) participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study. aIAB was detected from digital electrocardiograms recorded during 4 study visits (1987–1989, 1990–1992, 1993–1995, and 1996–1998). Risk factors for the development of aIAB were examined using multivariable Poisson regression models with robust variance estimates. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between aIAB, as a time-dependent variable, and atrial fibrillation (AF). AF was ascertained from study electrocardiogram data, hospital discharge records, and death certificates thorough 2010. A total of 69 (0.5%) participants had aIAB at baseline and 193 (1.3%) developed aIAB during follow-up. The incidence rate for aIAB was 2.27 (95%CI=1.97, 2.61) per 1000 person-years. Risk factors for aIAB development included age, male sex, white race, antihypertensive medication use, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure. In a Cox regression analysis adjusted for socio-demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and potential confounders, aIAB was associated with an increased risk for AF (HR=3.09, 95%CI=2.51, 3.79). In conclusion, aIAB is not uncommon in the general population. Risk factors for developing aIAB are similar to those for AF and the presence of aIAB is associated with an increased risk for AF

Association of Age at Menopause With Incident Heart Failure: A Prospective Cohort Study and Meta‐Analysis

BACKGROUND: Early age (<45 years) at menopause has been postulated to be associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk; however, evidence of its relation with heart failure (HF) incidence is limited. We examined whether age at menopause is associated inversely with HF incidence in the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study and summarized all existing data in a meta-analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: In ARIC, data were obtained from 5629 postmenopausal women (mean age 56 years, 26% with bilateral oophorectomy) without HF. During a median follow-up of 21.4 years, 965 incident HF events occurred. In a Cox regression model adjusted for reproductive health and HF risk factors, the hazard ratios for incident HF across categories of age at menopause (<45, 45-49, 50-54, and ≥55 years) were 1.32, 1.17, 1.00 (referent), and 1.12, respectively. Compared with women with later onset of menopause (aged ≥45 years), those with early menopause had elevated HF risk (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% CI 1.01-1.43). For the meta-analysis, we searched Medline and Embase for articles published through December 2015 that prospectively evaluated age at menopause and HF risk. Summarized estimates from the 3 included studies (3568 events) showed higher HF risk among women with early menopause compared with those with later menopause (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% CI 1.15-1.53). CONCLUSIONS: These results provided evidence that early age at menopause is associated with a modestly greater risk of HF. Identification of women with early menopause offers a window of opportunity to implement interventions that will improve overall cardiovascular health during the postmenopausal years

Insulin resistance and reduced cardiac autonomic function in older adults: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Background: Prior studies have shown insulin resistance is associated with reduced cardiac autonomic function measured at rest, but few studies have determined whether insulin resistance is associated with reduced cardiac autonomic function measured during daily activities. Methods: We examined older adults without diabetes with 48-h ambulatory electrocardiography (n = 759) in an ancillary study of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Insulin resistance, the exposure, was defined by quartiles for three indexes: 1) the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), 2) the triglyceride and glucose index (TyG), and 3) the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C). Low heart rate variability, the outcome, was defined by <25th percentile for four measures: 1) standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN), a measure of total variability; 2) root mean square of successive differences in normal-to-normal R-R intervals (RMSSD), a measure of vagal activity; 3) low frequency spectral component (LF), a measure of sympathetic and vagal activity; and 4) high frequency spectral component (HF), a measure of vagal activity. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals weighted for sampling/non-response, adjusted for age at ancillary visit, sex, and race/study-site. Insulin resistance quartiles 4, 3, and 2 were compared to quartile 1; high indexes refer to quartile 4 versus quartile 1. Results: The average age was 78 years, 66% (n = 497) were women, and 58% (n = 438) were African American. Estimates of association were not robust at all levels of HOMA-IR, TyG, and TG/HDL-C, but suggest that high indexes were associated consistently with indicators of vagal activity. High HOMA-IR, high TyG, and high TG/HDL-C were consistently associated with low RMSSD (OR: 1.68 (1.00, 2.81), OR: 2.03 (1.21, 3.39), and OR: 1.73 (1.01, 2.91), respectively). High HOMA-IR, high TyG, and high TG/HDL-C were consistently associated with low HF (OR: 1.90 (1.14, 3.18), OR: 1.98 (1.21, 3.25), and OR: 1.76 (1.07, 2.90), respectively). Conclusions: In older adults without diabetes, insulin resistance was associated with reduced cardiac autonomic function - specifically and consistently for indicators of vagal activity - measured during daily activities. Primary prevention of insulin resistance may reduce the related risk of cardiac autonomic dysfunction

Racial Differences in Atrial Fibrillation-Related Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

The adverse outcomes associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been studied in predominantly white cohorts. Racial differences in outcomes associated with AF merit continued investigation

Peripheral Artery Disease Prevalence and Incidence Estimated From Both Outpatient and Inpatient Settings Among Medicare Fee‐for‐Service Beneficiaries in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND: Outpatient ascertainment of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is rarely considered in the measurement of PAD clinical burden; therefore, the clinical burden of PAD likely has been underestimated while contributing to a decreased awareness of PAD in comparison to other circulatory system disorders. METHODS AND RESULTS: The purpose of this study was to estimate the age-standardized annual period prevalence and incidence of PAD in the outpatient and inpatient settings using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study linked with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims. The majority (>70%) of all PAD encounters occurred in the outpatient setting. The weighted mean age-standardized prevalence and incidence of outpatient PAD was 11.8% (95% CI 11.5-12.1) and 22.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 20.8-24.0), respectively. Black patients had higher weighted mean age-standardized prevalence (15.6%; 95% CI 14.6-16.4) compared with white patients (11.4%; 95% CI 11.1-11.7). Black women had the highest weighted mean age-standardized prevalence (16.9%; 95% CI 16.0-17.8). Black patients also had a higher incidence rate of PAD (31.3 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI 27.3-35.4) compared with white patients (25.4 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI 23.5-27.3). PAD prevalence and incidence did not differ by sex alone. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides comprehensive estimates of PAD in the inpatient and outpatient settings where the majority of PAD burden was found. PAD is an important circulatory system disorder similar in prevalence to stroke and coronary heart disease

Temporal Trends in Hospitalization for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure in the United States, 1998–2011

Estimates of the numbers and rates of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) hospitalization are central to understanding health-care utilization and efforts to improve patient care. We comprehensively estimated the frequency, rate, and trends of ADHF hospitalization in the United States. Based on Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study surveillance adjudicating 12,450 eligible hospitalizations during 2005–2010, we developed prediction models for ADHF separately for 3 International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 428 discharge diagnosis groups: 428 primary, 428 nonprimary, or 428 absent. We applied the models to data from the National Inpatient Sample (11.5 million hospitalizations of persons aged ≥55 years with eligible ICD-9-CM codes), an all-payer, 20% probability sample of US community hospitals. The average estimated number of ADHF hospitalizations per year was 1.76 million (428 primary, 0.80 million; 428 nonprimary, 0.83 million; 428 absent, 0.13 million). During 1998–2004, the rate of ADHF hospitalization increased by 2.0%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8, 2.5) versus a 1.4%/year (95% CI: 0.8, 2.1) increase in code 428 primary hospitalizations (P < 0.001). In contrast, during 2005–2011, numbers of ADHF hospitalizations were stable (−0.5%/year; 95% CI: −1.4, 0.3), while the numbers of 428-primary hospitalizations decreased by −1.5%/year (95% CI: −2.2, −0.8) (P for contrast = 0.03). In conclusion, the estimated number of hospitalizations with ADHF is approximately 2 times higher than the number of hospitalizations with ICD-9-CM code 428 in the primary position. The trend increased more steeply prior to 2005 and was relatively flat after 2005

Ankle-brachial index and incident diabetes mellitus: the atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

Abstract Background Individuals with peripheral artery disease (PAD) often have reduced physical activity, which may increase the future risk of diabetes mellitus. Although diabetes is a risk factor for PAD, whether low ankle-brachial index (ABI) predates diabetes has not been studied. Methods We examined the association of ABI with incident diabetes using Cox proportional hazards models in the ARIC Study. ABI was measured in 12,247 black and white participants without prevalent diabetes at baseline (1987–1989). Incident diabetes cases were identified by blood glucose levels at three subsequent visits (1990–92, 1993–95, and 1996–98) or self-reported physician diagnosis or medication use at those visits or during annual phone interview afterward through 2011. Results A total of 3305 participants developed diabetes during a median of 21 years of follow-up. Participants with low (≤0.90) and borderline low (0.91–1.00) ABI had 30–40% higher risk of future diabetes as compared to those with ABI of 1.10–1.20 in the demographically adjusted model. The associations were attenuated after further adjustment for other potential confounders but remained significant for ABI 0.91–1.00 (HR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.04–1.31) and marginally significant for ABI ≤ 0.90 (HR = 1.19, 0.99–1.43). Although the association was largely consistent across subgroups, a stronger association was seen in participants without hypertension, those with normal fasting glucose, and those with a history of stroke compared to their counterparts. Conclusions Low ABI was modestly but independently associated with increased risk of incident diabetes in the general population. Clinical attention should be paid to the glucose trajectory among people with low ABI but without diabetes

Ankle-brachial index and physical function in older individuals: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Most prior studies investigating the association of lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) with physical function were small or analyzed selected populations (e.g., patients at vascular clinics or persons with reduced function), leaving particular uncertainty regarding the association in the general community