Understanding cross-country variation in the long-term consequences of graduating at a bad time: A comparison of five European countries

This working paper investigates if graduating in a bad economy scars careers of youth cohorts in terms of increased future unemployment and overrepresentation in fixed-term and involuntary part-time work. These dynamics of scarring are explored from a cross-country comparative perspective, focusing on the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Spain and Finland. These countries make up for interesting cases as they differ remarkably on institutional and economic dimensions such as for example the vocational orientation of their education systems, the strictness of employment protection legislation, active labour market policies to support job-search success of jobless young people and the general level of prevalent youth unemployment, which are assumed to be related to cross-nationally distinct patterns in scarring effects. The focus of the empirical analysis is on long-term effects of the level of aggregate youth unemployment at graduation on career evolvement of school-leaver cohorts over 12 years since their graduation, distinguishing between educational groups while allowing for gender effects. All in all we find that bad luck in timing of labour market entry can scar future careers over the long-run. A bad economy at labour market entry may thus be seen as a major risk factor for the future integration of youth cohorts in very different institutional contexts

Putting an explanatory understanding into a predictive perspective: An exemplary study on school track enrollment

Complementing widely used explanatory models in the educational sciences that pinpoint the resources and characteristics for explaining students’ distinct educational transitions, this paper departs from methodological traditions and evaluates the predictive power of established concepts: to what extent can we actually predict school track enrollment based on a plethora of well-known explanatory factors derived from previous research? Predictive models were established using recursive partitioning adopted from machine learning. The basis for the analyses was the unique Zurich Learning Progress Study in Switzerland, a longitudinal study that followed a sample of 2000 students throughout compulsory education. This paper presents an exemplary examination of predictive modeling, and encourages educational sciences in general to explore beyond the horizon of their disciplinary methodological standards, which may help to consider the limits of an exclusive focus on explanatory approaches. The results provide an insight into the predictive capacity of well-established educational measures and concepts in predicting school track enrollment. The results show that there is quite a bit we cannot explain in educational navigation at the very end of elementary education. Yet, predictive misclassifications mainly occur between adjacent school tracks. Very few misclassifications in the future enrollment of academic-track and basic-track students, i.e., those pursuing the most- and least-prestigious tracks, respectively, occur

Fixed-term jobs after vocational education and training in Switzerland: Stepping stone or impediment?

Competing assumptions about whether entering the labour market via fixed-term jobs is a good or bad start into work life persist in the literature. Based on the longitudinal survey TREE, this article sheds light on (1) who enters the Swiss labour market via fixed-term jobs after graduating from initial vocational education and on (2) the consequences regarding their future returns. Results indicate that vocational education graduates entering the work force via fixed-term jobs of low occupational status must expect lower future wages

Job and employment insecurity in early careers : investigating the vocational education premium

As school-to-work transitions are highly institutionalised for young people in countries with well-established vocational education and training (VET) systems, comparatively smooth transitions to work and hence low youth unemployment have become the hallmark of VET. Tertiarisation, globalisation and increased macro-economic uncertainties as well as shifts towards a more knowledge-intensive economy and educational expansion, however, pose new challenges for VET. Based on data from the unique, longitudinal survey TREE (Transitions from Education to Employment) that follows school-to-work transitions of pupils who participated in PISA 2000, this dissertation sheds light on early job and employment insecurities and their lasting effects for the careers of VET graduates in Switzerland. Five research articles form the main pillars of this dissertation. Empirical results highlight the sheltering impact of vocational education on early job insecurity. In case VET graduates happen to experience early unemployment and initial fixed-term employment, however, they face long-term career hampering consequences. Further, institutionalised pathways to work along occupational lines constrain occupational mobility for VET graduates. Results indicate that graduates from initial vocational education strongly depend on good job opportunities in their occupational segment of training as they otherwise lack a pathway to qualified employment. In addition, the last empirical investigation focuses on differential effects of subjective and objective job insecurity on life-satisfaction trajectories across educational categories

Contribution to Deliverable 3.4 (D3.4) – Institutional Determinants of Early Job Insecurity in Nine European Countries : Country Report Switzerland

Compared to other European countries, Switzerland has demonstrated relative economic stability since the economic crisis in 2008/2009. The employment rate of 15 to 24-year-olds in Switzerland registered a fluctuation of maximum 5% during the period from 2008 to 2015. The lowest rate was observed in the 2nd quarter of 2012 (65.2%) and the highest rate in the 3rd quarter of 2010 (70.2%). In comparison, the fluctuation of the employment rate of the general population (15-64 years of age) is even smaller; 82.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 was the lowest rate and 84.6% the highest in the last quarter of 2015. Overall, the employment rate among the younger population is less stable than throughout the general population (Bundesamt für Statistik BFS, 2016). As for fixed-term contracts, the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics registered a shared of 19% of fixed-term contracts among the age group 15-24, which is considerably higher than the share in the general labour force population (8% in 2015) (see section 2). In Switzerland, the youth unemployment rate differs from canton to canton. The French- and Italian-speaking parts show a higher rate than the German-speaking part of Switzerland. According to Eurostat (4Q 2015), on average, 9.8% of the young people between 15-24 years of age were unemployed in 2015, which was about double as high as the unemployment rate of the entire work force population (15-65-year-olds: 4.8%). However, compared to other OECD countries the youth unemployment rate in Switzerland is still relatively low (see section 2). According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the share of people in the age group 18-24 in education or training has not varied much from 2008 (63.5%) to 2014 (64.5%). The lowest participation rate was measured in 2009, when 57.6% were in education or training (Eurostat 2016). The educational level in Switzerland has shown some changes regarding the tertiary education. While in 2010 35.3% of the population declared that they had obtained a tertiary degree as their highest attained education level, it was 40.2% in 2014. Furthermore, there has been a slight increase of people, who have completed at least an upper-secondary education (85.8% in 2010 and 88.0% in 2014) (FSO 2016). The OECD data show that the proportion of students enrolling in the general and in the vocational programmes has hardly changed over the years. In 2008 it was 35:65, and in 2013 it was 34:66 (OECD 2015). The number of persons aged from 18 to 24, who have only completed the lower secondary education, and who are currently not in education or training, has slightly decreased over the years: While it was 7.6% in 2010, it dropped to 6.3% by 2014 (FSO 2016). The overall positive economic situation in Switzerland provides favourable conditions for a stable labour market. Compared to other countries Switzerland has a low youth as well as general unemployment rate

Job Insecurity: Differential Effects of Subjective and Objective Measures on Life Satisfaction Trajectories of Workers Aged 27–30 in Germany

Job insecurity has become increasingly evident in European countries in recent years. In Germany, legislation has increased insecurity through erosion of the standard employment relationship. Fixed-term contracts are central to definitions of insecurity based on atypical or precarious work but there is still limited understanding of what creates insecurity and how it affects workers. Drawing on Bourdieu’s thesis that “insecurity is everywhere”, the relationships between subjective and objective measures of insecurity are examined for their impact on the 5-year trajectories of life satisfaction of men and women in the age group 27–30. Latent growth curve analysis of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 2010–2014 highlights the adverse and lasting effects of subjective concerns about job insecurity on life satisfaction trajectories. This association cuts across educational groups, with far reaching implications as subjective concerns about job security permeate young worker’s lives well beyond the objective condition of being employed on a fixed-term contract

Long-term trajectories of academic performance in the context of social disparities: Longitudinal findings from Switzerland

This study used a stratified random sample of classes in Zurich, Switzerland, comprising approximately 2,000 students whose academic performances in math and language were assessed across primary and lower secondary education. Based on this longitudinal data, the study investigated the association of social inequalities with the baseline of, and gains in, academic performance. The study focused on growing social disparities in academic performance during compulsory education, taking into account disparities in the social backgrounds of students as well as in social deprivation of school attendance areas. The results of a multilevel growth curve analysis implemented to model academic performance development at student and school district levels suggest cumulative disadvantages for students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. These students (a) start school with lower initial knowledge and (b) experience lower improvements in academic performance. The findings also suggest that more advantaged school attendance areas achieved higher average performance levels in the early stages of primary education despite controlling for student socioeconomic backgrounds. On average, however, this gap in academic performance between more advantaged and more deprived attendance areas did not appear to widen over the subsequent years of compulsory schooling

Flexibility at the Price of Volatility: Concurrent Calibration in Multistage Tests in Practice Using a 2PL Model

Multistage test (MST) designs promise efficient student ability estimates, an indispensable asset for individual diagnostics in high-stakes educational assessments. In high-stakes testing, annually changing test forms are required because publicly known test items impair accurate student ability estimation, and items of bad model fit must be continually replaced to guarantee test quality. This requires a large and continually refreshed item pool as the basis for high-stakes MST. In practice, the calibration of newly developed items to feed annually changing tests is highly resource intensive. Piloting based on a representative sample of students is often not feasible, given that, for schools, participation in actual high-stakes assessments already requires considerable organizational effort. Hence, under practical constraints, the calibration of newly developed items may take place on the go in the form of a concurrent calibration in MST designs. Based on a simulation approach this paper focuses on the performance of Rasch vs. 2PL modeling in retrieving item parameters when items are for practical reasons non-optimally placed in multistage tests. Overall, the results suggest that the 2PL model performs worse in retrieving item parameters compared to the Rasch model when there is non-optimal item assembly in the MST; especially in retrieving parameters at the margins. The higher flexibility of 2PL modeling, where item discrimination is allowed to vary, seems to come at the cost of increased volatility in parameter estimation. Although the overall bias may be modest, single items can be affected by severe biases when using a 2PL model for item calibration in the context of non-optimal item placement