Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.Monetary policy

Apollo experience report environmental acceptance testing

Environmental acceptance testing was used extensively to screen selected spacecraft hardware for workmanship defects and manufacturing flaws. The minimum acceptance levels and durations and methods for their establishment are described. Component selection and test monitoring, as well as test implementation requirements, are included. Apollo spacecraft environmental acceptance test results are summarized, and recommendations for future programs are presented

Derivation of an Age and Weight Handicap for the 5K Run

The adverse effect of increasing age and/or body weight on distance run performance has been well documented. Accordingly, nearly all five kilometer (5K) road races employ age categories and, sometimes, a heavier body weight classification. Problems with such conventions include small numbers of runners within older age categories and the advantage given to the lightest runners within each weight category. We developed a 5K Handicap (5KH), a model that calculates an adjusted run time based on the inputs of actual 5K run time, age, and body weight for men and women. This adjusted time, then, can be compared between runners of different ages and body weights. The purpose of this paper was to explain, in detail, the derivation of the 5KH formula using published theoretical and empirical findings on age, body weight and distance run time relationships. To our knowledge, the 5KH is the first such model and overcomes the problems associated with being heavier within one weight class and having too few runners in certain age categories. We are currently undertaking large-scale validation studies and evaluation of its race day implementation

Body Mass Bias in a Competition of Muscle Strength and Aerobic Power

Recently, a fitness competition called the Pump and Run (PR) has been popularized. Composed of 2 events, a 5-km road race time (RT) in seconds and a maximal-repetition bench press (BPR) with resistance based on a percentage of body mass (M), the final score (RTadj) equals RT - 30(BPR). From published findings, the authors hypothesized that the PR would impose a bias against heavier competitors. Furthermore, the potential for age bias in this event has not been evaluated. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate M and age bias in the PR for men and women. For 74 female and 343 male competitors in a large PR event, RT, BPR, M, and age were collected from official competition results. Two subsamples were randomly created from the original sample: the validation (VAL) (54 women and 258 men) and the cross-validation (CVAL) (20 women and 85 men). For the VAL sample, the RTadj showed significant bias against heavier runners (women r2 = 0.35; men r2 = 0.28;P \u3c 0.01 for both) but no age bias (women r2 = 0.04; men r2 = 0.005; P \u3e 0.05 for both). Using allometric modeling, the authors developed a set of M-based correction factors to be multiplied by each RTadj to yield new adjusted run times (NRTadj) that would be free of M bias. As applied to the CVAL sample, the NRTadj values virtually eliminated the M bias (women r2 = 0.04; men r2 = 0.002; P \u3e 0.05 for both) of the current PR scoring system and retained the absence of age bias (women r2 = 0.02; men r2 = 0.0002; P \u3e 0.05 for both). The authors recommend the use of the NRTadj scores for future PR competitions

Validation of a 5K Age and Weight Run Handicap Model

Though increasing age and body weight (BW) have been widely known to be associated with slower distance run times, the common convention in 5K road races is to categorize competitors by age and, sometimes, BW. This has the disadvantage of assigning only small numbers of competitors to age categories and giving advantage to runners close to the minimum age or BW values allowable. Using recent advances in the modeling of distance run performance by BW combined with empirical evidence quantifying the independent effect of age on cardiovascular endurance, we previously published the derivation of the 5K Handicap (5KH), an age and BW handicap model for the 5K road race. With the inputs of age, BW and actual run time, the 5KH computes an adjusted run time which can be used to compare runners of different age and BW within the same gender. In this study, we field tested the 5KH in two local races with 275 men and 126 women. Results suggest that the 5KH eliminates the age and BW bias, and may provide more incentive for older and heavier runners to compete. Furthermore, the BW bias in the 5K tended to be lower for women than for men. The first scientifically-based age and BW graded system, the 5KH appears valid for both genders and may have application for other race distances and fitness testing environments

Contributions of Body Fat and Effort in the 5K Run: Age and Body Weight Handicap

The 5K handicap (5KH), designed to eliminate the body weight (BW) and age biases inherent in the 5K run time (RT), yields an adjusted RT (RTadj) that can be compared between runners of different BW and age. As hypothesized in a validation study, however, not all BW bias may be removed, because of the influences of body fatness (BF) and effort (run speed; essentially the inverse as measured by rating of perceived exertion (RPE)). This study\u27s purpose was to determine the effects of BF and RPE on BW bias in the 5KH. For 99 male runners in a regional 5K race (age = 43.9 ± 12.1 years; BW = 83.4 ± 12.9 kg), BF was determined via sum of three skinfolds just before the race. RPE, on the 20-point Borg scale, was used to assess overall race effort on race completion. Multiple regression analysis was used to develop a new adjusted RT (NRTadj, the RTadj corrected for BF and RPE), which was computed for each runner and then correlated with BW to determine bias. Indicative of slight bias, BW was correlated with RTadj (r = 0.220, p = 0.029). Both BF (p = 0.00002) and RPE (p = 0.0005) were significant, independent predictors of RTadj. NRTadj was not significantly correlated with BW (r = 0.051, p = 0.61), but BF explained 90%, and RPE explained only 6%, of the remaining BW bias evidenced in the 5KH. The previous finding that the 5KH does not remove all BW bias is apparently accounted for by BF and not RPE. Because no handicap should be awarded for higher BF, this finding suggests that the 5KH, for men, appropriately adjusts for the age and BW vs. RT biases previously noted

Comparison of the Effect of Caffeine Ingestion on Time to Exhaustion between Endurance Trained and Untrained Men

This study compared the ergogenic effects of caffeine on men who were endurance trained to those who were untrained. The study was a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover experimental design. Ten endurance trained men (mean age 24.4 ± 2.0 yrs, weight 79.4 ± 8.5 kg, predicted VO2 max 46.3 ± 1.8 mL·kg-1·min-1) and 10 untrained men (mean age 22.8 ± 1.9 yrs, weight 88.9 ± 9.9 kg, predicted VO2 max 37.6 ± 2.7 mL·kg-1·min-1) completed two cycle ergometer trials to exhaustion at 80% of their predicted workload max 30 min after ingesting either 5 mg·kg-1 of body weight of caffeine or a placebo. Neither group displayed significant increases in time to exhaustion (Trained Group: 786.4 ± 251.5 sec for the placebo trial and 810.7 ± 209.4 sec for the caffeine trial and the Untrained Group: 514.6 ± 107.8 sec for the placebo trial and 567.3 ± 140.5 sec for the caffeine trial) after ingesting caffeine. When compared statistically between groups, the difference was not significant. When the groups were combined, the difference was caffeine and the placebo was not significant. The findings indicate that there was no ergogenic effect of caffeine on time to exhaustion in either endurance trained or untrained men

The nature of iron-oxygen vacancy defect centers in PbTiO3

The iron(III) center in ferroelectric PbTiO3 together with an oxygen vacancy forms a charged defect associate, oriented along the crystallographic c-axis. Its microscopic structure has been analyzed in detail comparing results from a semi-empirical Newman superposition model analysis based on finestructure data and from calculations using density functional theory. Both methods give evidence for a substitution of Fe3+ for Ti4+ as an acceptor center. The position of the iron ion in the ferroelectric phase is found to be similar to the B-site in the paraelectric phase. Partial charge compensation is locally provided by a directly coordinated oxygen vacancy. Using high-resolution synchrotron powder diffraction, it was verified that lead titanate remains tetragonal down to 12 K, exhibiting a c/a-ratio of 1.0721.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, accepted in Phys. Rev.

Fitness, Friendship, and Fun: University Sponsored Community PE Program

This paper describes a University-sponsored community physical education program and the feedback received about it from teachers, children, and the college students who oversaw it. The program, called Fitness, Friendship, and Fun, was staffed by 65 first-year student interns from the University of Dayton; four graduate assistants; and two university professors. It began with 65 male and female elementary students, primarily from the fifth and sixth grades at a nearby elementary school