Avian Community Changes in Relationto Different Forest Fire Conditions in Central Idaho

Wildfire is an important driver of forest bird communities in western North America. To fully understand wildfire effects, more studies comparing species-specific responses across space, time, and a range of burn severities are needed. We analyzed point count data (n = 809 point × year survey occasions; 2002–2010) from central Idaho to examine forest bird community responses to fire. Using community occupancy models, we analyzed changes in point occupancy before and after prescribed burning and wildfire, and along a post-wildfire burn-severity gradient. Occupancy patterns were largely consistent with those expected from species life histories. Cavity nesters and aerial insectivores (mountain bluebird [Sialia currucoides; n = 37 survey occasions detected], house wren [Troglodytes aedon; n = 15], Olive-sided Flycatcher [Contopus cooperi; n = 15]) responded positively to fire consistent with increases in nesting substrate and foraging opportunities expected for these species. Shrub-nesting species (lazuli bunting [Passerina amoena; n = 75], Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus; n = 29]) exhibited lagged positive responses with the expected lag in shrub development after wildfire. In contrast, canopy-nesting foliage gleaners and pine-seed consumers (Clark’s nutcracker [Nucifraga Columbiana; n = 50], Townsend’s warbler [Setophaga townsendi; n = 133]) responded negatively to wildfire. More species responded positively than negatively to fire, and responses to high-severity wildfire were stronger than to prescribed burning. Consequently, species richness increased by approximately 3 species from low- to high-severity burned points and pre- to post-wildfire years. Our results suggest high-severity wildfires generate important habitat for many species, contributing positively to avian diversity

Simulations Inform Design of Regional Occupancy-Based Monitoring for a Sparsely Distributed, Territorial Species

Sparsely distributed species attract management concern. Insufficient information on population trends, however, challenges conservation and funding prioritization. Occupancybased methods are cost effective and therefore attractive for broad-scale trend monitoring, but appropriate sampling design and inference depend on particulars of the study system. We employed spatially explicit simulations to inform regional occupancy-based monitoring of white-headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolvartus), a sparsely distributed, territorial species threatened by habitat decline and degradation. We incorporated basic knowledge of species ecology into population simulations to compare statistical power and trend estimation error under alternative scenarios. Sampling effort needed to achieve adequate power to observe a long-term population trend (? 80% chance to observe a 2% yearly decline over 20 years) consisted of annually monitoring ? 120 transects using the single-survey approach or ? 90 transects using a repeat-survey approach. The single-survey approach, which employs occupancy as an index of abundance and requires auxiliary information to account for detectability, provided more power for a given level of sampling effort than repeat-survey approaches. Alternate allocation schemes improved statistical power and trend estimates over the baseline (surveying 10 points within all transects annually), including surveying a subset (33%) of transects each year (i.e., a panel design) and surveying fewer points per transect in exchange for a larger spatial sample. Considering this case study, single-survey methods (with separate evaluation of detectability), panel designs, and aligning sampling resolution with home range size could likely benefit broad-scale occupancy-based monitoring of other sparsely distributed and mobile species

Ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling to Guide Conservation of Black-Backed Woodpeckers

Conservation of black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus), a burned-forest specialist, is challenged by the unpredictable availability of suitable habitat. Habitat models calibrated with data from previous wildfires can be used to predict habitat suitability in newly fire-affected areas. Predictive accuracy of habitat models depends on how well statistical relationships reflect actual ecological relationships. We predicted habitat suitability for Black-backed Woodpecker at Montana post-wildfire forests (? 6 years postfire) east of the continental divide using models calibrated with nest location data from wildlfire locations in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. We developed 6 habitat models, including one partitioned Mahalanobis model, two Maxent models, and 3 weighted logistic regression models with combinations of seven environmental variables describing burn severity, topography, and pre-fire canopy cover. We converted continuous habitat suitability indices (HSIs) into binary predictions (suitable or unsuitable) and combined predictions using and ensemble approach; we compiled the number of models (0–6) predicting locations (30×30-m pixels) as suitable. Habitat models represented different hypotheses regarding true ecological relationships, making inferences from ensemble predictions robust to uncertainties in the form of these relationships. Thirty-five percent of the area burned by eastside Montana wildfires was predicted suitable by either all seven habitat models or none of them (i.e. complete agreement among models). We recommend conservation of areas (e.g., exclusion of post-fire salvage logging) that were consistently predicted suitable by most models, e.g., 32 percent of burned areas predicted suitable by ? 5 models. Additionally, we recommend surveying areas where models disagree to help validate and refine models

A GIS Tool for Applying Habitat Suitability Models to Inform Management (Poster)

Habitat suitability models are used to guide habitat management for species of conservation concern. Models quantify relationships between known species locations and environmental attributes, which are used to identify and map areas most likely to support species of concern. Managers can then restrict human activities with negative impacts on habitat suitability in these areas. Application of habitat suitability models, however, typically requires technical expertise not available to most land managers. We developed a prototype GIS tool that facilitates application of habitat suitability models to guide management of habitat for woodpecker species of conservation concern. The tool operates within an ArcGIS environment, which is readily available to most managers, and will be capable of generating habitat suitability maps for several species of concern (i.e., Black-backed Woodpecker [Picoides arcticus], Three-toed Woodpecker [P. dorsalis], Lewis’s Woodpecker [Melanerpes lewis], and White-headed Woodpeckers [P. albolvartus]). The tool also automates much of the model application process, reducing requisite technical expertise, and making habitat suitability models widely available. The tool will be accompanied by a manual describing implementation and interpretation of resulting habitat suitability maps. The tool will be especially helpful for informing management of post-disturbance forests (i.e. after wildfire and beetle infestations) to identify suitable habitat for disturbance specialists (e.g., Black-backed, Three-toed, and Lewis’s Woodpeckers).  Identification of suitable habitat is necessary to effectively develop management plans that incorporate the needs of habitat specialists in post-disturbance landscapes. Our prototype is currently being tested by U.S. Forest Service biologists

Avian Relationships with Wildfire at Two Dry Forest Locations with Different Historical Fire Regimes

Wildfire is a key factor influencing bird communities in western North American forests. We need to understand species and community responses to wildfire and how responses vary regionally to effectively manage for biodiversity in dry conifer forests. We compared avian relationships with wildfire burn severity between two locations of Arizona and Idaho. We predicted different responses to wildfire corresponding with regional differences in historical fire regime. We conducted point-count surveys for 3 years following wildfire (Arizona: 1997–1999; Idaho: 2008–2010) and used multispecies hierarchical models to analyze relationships of bird occupancy with burn severity. Consistent with our prediction for mixed-severity fire regimes characterizing the Idaho location, we observed proportionately more positive species occupancy relationships and, consequently, a positive species richness relationship with burn severity in Idaho. We also observed the opposite pattern in Arizona, which was congruent with our prediction for the low-severity fire regime characterizing that location. Cavity nesters and aerial insectivores occupied more severely burned sites following wildfire, corresponding with predicted increases in nesting substrate and foraging opportunities for these species. In contrast, canopy-nesting foliage gleaners and pine-seed consumers exhibited negative relationships with burn severity. Congruence with species life histories and with patterns reported in the literature suggests generality of observed patterns. We therefore suggest that optimal management strategies for maintaining avian diversity could differ regionally. Specifically, intensive fuels management may be ecologically less appropriate for promoting biodiversity in areas such as the Idaho location where mixed-severity wildfires and dense forest stands were historically more common

Effects of parents and Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) on nest predation risk for a songbird.

Nest predation limits avian fitness, so ornithologists study nest predation, but they often only document patterns of predation rates without substantively investigating underlying mechanisms. Parental behavior and predator ecology are two fundamental drivers of predation rates and patterns, but the role of parents is less certain, particularly for songbirds. Previous work reproduced microhabitat-predation patterns experienced by Yellow Warblers (Setophaga petechia) in the Mono Lake basin at experimental nests without parents, suggesting that these patterns were driven by predator ecology rather than predator interactions with parents. In this study, we further explored effects of post-initiation parental behavior (nest defense and attendance) on predation risk by comparing natural versus experimental patterns related to territory density, seasonal timing of nest initiation, and nest age. Rates of parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) were high in this system (49% nests parasitized), so we also examined parasitism-predation relationships. Natural nest predation rates (NPR) correlated negatively with breeding territory density and nonlinearly (U-shaped relationship) with nest-initiation timing, but experimental nests recorded no such patterns. After adjusting natural-nest data to control for these differences from experimental nests other than the presence of parents (e.g., defining nest failure similarly and excluding nestling-period data), we obtained similar results. Thus, parents were necessary to produce observed patterns. Lower natural NPR compared with experimental NPR suggested that parents reduced predation rates via nest defense, so this parental behavior or its consequences were likely correlated with density or seasonal timing. In contrast, daily predation rates decreased with nest age for both nest types, indicating this pattern did not involve parents. Parasitized nests suffered higher rates of partial predation but lower rates of complete predation, suggesting direct predation by cowbirds. Explicit behavioral research on parents, predators (including cowbirds), and their interactions would further illuminate mechanisms underlying the density, seasonal, and nest age patterns we observed