Randomized controlled trial of nasogastric tube use after esophagectomy : study protocol for the kinetic trial

Esophagectomy is a complex and complication laden procedure. Despite centralization, variations in perioparative strategies reflect a paucity of evidence regarding optimal routines. The use of nasogastric (NG) tubes post esophagectomy is typically associated with significant discomfort for the patients. We hypothesize that immediate postoperative removal of the NG tube is non-inferior to current routines. All Nordic Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer centers were invited to participate in this open-label pragmatic randomized controlled trial (RCT). Inclusion criteria include resection for locally advanced esophageal cancer with gastric tube reconstruction. A pretrial survey was undertaken and was the foundation for a consensus process resulting in the Kinetic trial, an RCT allocating patients to either no use of a NG tube (intervention) or 5 days of postoperative NG tube use (control) with anastomotic leakage as primary endpoint. Secondary endpoints include pulmonary complications, overall complications, length of stay, health related quality of life. A sample size of 450 patients is planned (Kinetic trial: https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN39935085). Thirteen Nordic centers with a combined catchment area of 17 million inhabitants have entered the trial and ethical approval was granted in Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark. All centers routinely use NG tube and all but one center use total or hybrid minimally invasive-surgical approach. Inclusion began in January 2022 and the first annual safety board assessment has deemed the trial safe and recommended continuation. We have launched the first adequately powered multi-center pragmatic controlled randomized clinical trial regarding NG tube use after esophagectomy with gastric conduit reconstruction

Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality After Esophagectomy for Cancer.

Importance Ninety-day mortality rates after esophagectomy are an indicator of the quality of surgical oncologic management. Accurate risk prediction based on large data sets may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions. Objective To develop and validate a risk prediction model of death within 90 days after esophagectomy for cancer using the International Esodata Study Group (IESG) database, the largest existing prospective, multicenter cohort reporting standardized postoperative outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants In this diagnostic/prognostic study, we performed a retrospective analysis of patients from 39 institutions in 19 countries between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019. Patients with esophageal cancer were randomly assigned to development and validation cohorts. A scoring system that predicted death within 90 days based on logistic regression β coefficients was conducted. A final prognostic score was determined and categorized into homogeneous risk groups that predicted death within 90 days. Calibration and discrimination tests were assessed between cohorts. Exposures Esophageal resection for cancer of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction. Main Outcomes and Measures All-cause postoperative 90-day mortality. Results A total of 8403 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.6 [9.0] years; 6641 [79.0%] male) were included. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.0% (n = 164), and the 90-day mortality rate was 4.2% (n = 353). Development (n = 4172) and validation (n = 4231) cohorts were randomly assigned. The multiple logistic regression model identified 10 weighted point variables factored into the prognostic score: age, sex, body mass index, performance status, myocardial infarction, connective tissue disease, peripheral vascular disease, liver disease, neoadjuvant treatment, and hospital volume. The prognostic scores were categorized into 5 risk groups: very low risk (score, ≥1; 90-day mortality, 1.8%), low risk (score, 0; 90-day mortality, 3.0%), medium risk (score, -1 to -2; 90-day mortality, 5.8%), high risk (score, -3 to -4: 90-day mortality, 8.9%), and very high risk (score, ≤-5; 90-day mortality, 18.2%). The model was supported by nonsignificance in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72) in the development cohort and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) in the validation cohort. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, on the basis of preoperative variables, the IESG risk prediction model allowed stratification of an individual patient's risk of death within 90 days after esophagectomy. These data suggest that this model can help in the decision-making process when esophageal cancer surgery is being considered and in informed consent

Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality after Esophagectomy for Cancer

Importance: Ninety-day mortality rates after esophagectomy are an indicator of the quality of surgical oncologic management. Accurate risk prediction based on large data sets may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions. Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of death within 90 days after esophagectomy for cancer using the International Esodata Study Group (IESG) database, the largest existing prospective, multicenter cohort reporting standardized postoperative outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic/prognostic study, we performed a retrospective analysis of patients from 39 institutions in 19 countries between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019. Patients with esophageal cancer were randomly assigned to development and validation cohorts. A scoring system that predicted death within 90 days based on logistic regression ß coefficients was conducted. A final prognostic score was determined and categorized into homogeneous risk groups that predicted death within 90 days. Calibration and discrimination tests were assessed between cohorts. Exposures: Esophageal resection for cancer of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause postoperative 90-day mortality. Results: A total of 8403 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.6 [9.0] years; 6641 [79.0%] male) were included. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.0% (n = 164), and the 90-day mortality rate was 4.2% (n = 353). Development (n = 4172) and validation (n = 4231) cohorts were randomly assigned. The multiple logistic regression model identified 10 weighted point variables factored into the prognostic score: age, sex, body mass index, performance status, myocardial infarction, connective tissue disease, peripheral vascular disease, liver disease, neoadjuvant treatment, and hospital volume. The prognostic scores were categorized into 5 risk groups: very low risk (score, =1; 90-day mortality, 1.8%), low risk (score, 0; 90-day mortality, 3.0%), medium risk (score, -1 to -2; 90-day mortality, 5.8%), high risk (score, -3 to -4: 90-day mortality, 8.9%), and very high risk (score, =-5; 90-day mortality, 18.2%). The model was supported by nonsignificance in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72) in the development cohort and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) in the validation cohort. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, on the basis of preoperative variables, the IESG risk prediction model allowed stratification of an individual patient's risk of death within 90 days after esophagectomy. These data suggest that this model can help in the decision-making process when esophageal cancer surgery is being considered and in informed consent