Valuation of SalMar ASA

Master's thesis in FinanceThis thesis examines the fair value per share of SalMar ASA, a Norwegian salmon farming company, at 3rd of May 2017. The analysis has been performed using fundamental and relative valuation methods. Future cash flows are forecasted using key value drivers identified and analyzed in a thorough strategic and historical performance analysis. The value per share is derived by discounting future cash flows at a weighted average cost of capital before subtracting debt and non-equity claims. At last the sensitivity of estimates is thoroughly analyzed. Firstly, the macro analysis uncovers how regulations due sustainability challenges limits further organic growth in the industry, despite favorable economic conditions for a continued demand growth for salmon. Secondly, the industry analysis uncovers a threat of increased salmon supply due to new entrants within non-traditional salmon farming methods. Thirdly, the resource based-view analysis uncovers short term competitive advantages in SalMar ASA’s optimized value chain, license locations and ocean farming technology. At last, the historical performance analysis reveal how SalMar has a history of stronger operating margin, lower operational cost, and higher return on invested capital compared to peers. The development in non-financial drivers are forecasted based on the results of the strategic and historical performance analysis. Salmon price is expected to stay strong in the short run, but revert to a lower historical average as supply from non-traditional farming methods gradually increase. Cost of goods sold is expected to decrease while fixed assets per license is expected to increase over the explicit forecast period. This is due to larger investments in cost efficient solutions including ocean farming technology, and self- sufficient smolt production. As a result, the forecast exhibits a continued high operating margin while return on invested capital declines compared to historical levels. Based on, these assumptions the fundamental valuation derives a fair value per share of NOK 153, while the relative valuation suggests a value interval of NOK 174-240. The sensitivity analysis uncovers a large value sensitivity to forecasted salmon price and cost of goods sold. The scenario analysis investigates the effect of success and failure of investments in cost improving technologies, ceteris paribus, where the result suggests a fair value per share of NOK 201 in case of success, and 90 in case of failure. At last, a Monte Carlo Simulation based on the historical probability distribution of the salmon price, suggests that the base case fair value per share estimate is less than 40% probable. The thesis concludes that the fair value per share for SalMar ASA is NOK 153 ~30% lower than today’s market price

Ship track estimation from single hydrophone data

Passive acoustic range estimation and source tracking using hydrophones have been a problem because of the complexity of the underwater channel. This thesis is concerned with a fast method for the estimation of ship velocity and horizontal range to a surface going vessel using acoustic data from a single hydrophone. The problem is of interest in applications for monitoring of noise from commercial shipping and ship traffic. There has been many who have developed different method for similar problems and this thesis is based on a matched field inversion method. This method used the analytic Lloyd mirror propagation model which assumes constant sound speed, homogeneous horizontal layers and a single bottom layer, which has reduces accuracy at larger range (300 meter), but is simple and fast. The cost function for matching the recorded data and the modeled data was a modified Bartlett function which calculates the deviation between the ratio of the two data sets and was sensitive to variation in the signal. To reduce the variance in the recorded signal the welch spectral estimation was used. The ASHS and ASDE was implemented for a more efficient search through the parameter space, but a 2D search through the velocity and range parameters was also made to study the uncertainty of the estimations and the effect the different parameters had on the cost function loss. The results of the estimation was compared with the recorded AIS data of the unknown parameters. The results in this thesis indicate that a close estimation of the ship velocity and horizontal range was possible with the 2D search when presented with a signal with good SNR, reduced variance, low range, good estimation of the source depth, low search interval and a sufficient amount of data which can be used in the estimation. Which also makes it possible to use these parameters for ship tracking. An observation which where made was that the source depth changed the outcome of the estimation drastically. Close estimation with the global search algorithms required higher SNR and knowledge of the unknown parameters that could reduce the search interval

Marine DNA polymerases as tools for next generation molecular diagnostics solutions

Globally, there is a high demand to monitor and diagnose critical infectious diseases. Current molecular diagnostic tests require long “sample in - answer out” time and expensive equipment. Isothermal Nucleic Acid Amplification Technology (INAAT) is an enabling technology possibly offering rapid, sensitive and specific molecular diagnosis of infectious diseases. However, the implementation of INAAT into Point of Care diagnostic platforms are halted due to a very limited selection of suitable enzymes, i.e. polymerases, performing at ambient temperatures. The overall goal with the project is to bring a panel of new and improved polymerase enzymes to market for use in next generation INAAT molecular diagnostic platforms and other potential application areas, e.g. next-generation sequencing and single-cell genomics. We have identified and characterized a large selection of polymerase enzymes based on marine bioprospecting of the arctic and subarctic region. These act as starting point for the development of 2nd generation isothermal amplification polymerases. Through use of our highly versatile molecular evolution library, combined with rational design studies, tailor-made enzymes for various application areas will be developed. This project emphasizes on early market feedback to confirm relevance and applicability and to ensure that enzymes are developed according to customer needs

Implementing Circadian Rhythm Lighting – Two Health-Care Case Studies

The studies derive from two larger Danish cases, which evaluated the application of circadian rhythm lighting in sensitive health care environments and highlights the difficulties that can be experienced in the implementation of entraining, or shifting of the timing, of the biological clock through lighting design. The paper focuses on the effects of introducing new 24-hour light and dark patterns on patients and residents in the two institutions, a home for the aged with dementia and a psychiatric facility for eating disorder patients. Data was gathered through ethnographic interviews, questionnaires, mappings, and structured observations. While positive benefits for health were an intended effect of implementing 24-hour biologically attuned lighting into these two environments, its introduction was also experienced negatively by staff and patients, particularly in the early stages of implementation, by affecting the patients’ everyday routines and feeling of ownership. The paper lays out the foundation for current research projects by the author, by comparing the perceived comfort and experiences of the patients with the documented laboratory effects of the design of circadian lighting system. The paper concludes with preliminary recommendations for future implementations of circadian lighting designs, including the consideration of the context, the users’ adaptation of the technology, communication with staff, usability and personal control.publishedVersio