If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular we investigate the market selection hypothesis, that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any Pareto optimal allocation whether each consumer vanishes or survives is determined entirely by discount factors and beliefs. Since equilibrium allocations in economies with complete markets are Pareto optimal, our results characterize the limit behavior of these economies. We show that, all else equal, the market selects for consumers who use Bayesian learning with the truth in the support of their prior and selects among Bayesians according to the size of the their parameter space. Finally, we show that in economies with incomplete markets these conclusions may not hold. Payoff functions can matter for long run survival, and the market selection hypothesis fails.Market selection hypothesis, subjective beliefs, general equilibrium, incomplete markets, complete markets

If You\u27re So Smart, Why Aren\u27t You Rich?Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular we investigate the market selection hypothesis, that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any Pareto optimal allocation whether each consumer vanishes or survives is determined entirely by discount factors and beliefs. Since equilibrium allocations in economies with complete markets are Pareto optimal, our results characterize the limit behavior of these economies. We show that, all else equal, the market selects for consumers who use Bayesian learning with the truth in the support of their prior and selects among Bayesians according to the size of the their parameter space. Finally, we show that in economies with incomplete markets these conclusions may not hold. Payoff functions can matter for long run survival, and the market selection hypothesis fails

Evolution of wealth and asset prices in markets with case-based investors

I analyze whether case-based decision makers (CBDM) can survive in an assetmarket in the presence of expected utilitymaximizers. Conditions are identified, under which the CBDM retain a positive mass with probability one. CBDM can cause predictability of asset returns, high volatility and bubbles. It is found that the expected utility maximizers can disappear from the market for a finite period of time, if the mispricing of the risky asset caused by the case-based decision-makers aggravates too much. Only in the case of logarithmic expected utility maximizers do the case-based decision makers disappear from the market for all parameter values

Economic Analysis of Knowledge: The History of Thought and the Central Themes

Following the development of knowledge economies, there has been a rapid expansion of economic analysis of knowledge, both in the context of technological knowledge in particular and the decision theory in general. This paper surveys this literature by identifying the main themes and contributions and outlines the future prospects of the discipline. The wide scope of knowledge related questions in terms of applicability and alternative approaches has led to the fragmentation of research. Nevertheless, one can identify a continuing tradition which analyses various aspects of the generation, dissemination and use of knowledge in the economy