Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis

The evaluation of the reliability of analysts' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order to identify the unanticipated component of earnings, institutional investors make considerable use of analysts' forecasts when evaluating and selecting individual sharesand the performance of analysts' forecasts sheds light on the process by which agents form expectations about key economic and financial variables. The recent period put forward a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts' anticipations: the latter tend to over-estimate earnings. In this paper, we study the properties of this bias according to various aspects, that is to say according to country, sector, but also according to the size of the companies.earnings forecasts, bias, consensus

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?

The recent period has highlighted a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts' anticipations. Literature on this subject underlines optimism in the financial analyst community. In this work, our significant contributions are twofold: we provide explanatory bias prediction models which will subsequently allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain the bias using macroeconomic as well as sector and firm specific variables. We obtain some important results. In particular, the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and their signs are coherent with the intuition. However, we conclude that the microeconomic variables are the main explanatory variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi-systematically to improve the forecasts of the analysts.Analysts Forecasts

Fractional cointegration between nominal interest rates and inflation: A re-examination of the Fisher relationship in the G7 countries

According to the Fisher hypothesis, the nominal interest rate is equal to the real interest rate, plus expected inflation. Results concerning the empirical validity of this hypothesis are not unanimous. These contradictions may be due to the fact that the usual concept of cointegration is too restrictive. We thus propose here to refer to the concept of fractional cointegration introduced by Granger (1986). We study the Fisher hypothesis by testing for the existence of a fractional cointegration relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Our results suggest that, for a large majority of G7 countries, such a relationship exists.

Communiquer sur la citoyenneté et la latinité par le spectacle dans l’amphithéâtre de Nîmes (1900-1937)

Proche du militantisme de R. Rolland, un cycle festivalier s’instaure dans l’amphithéâtre nîmois à compter de 1900. Initié par l’entrepreneur des arènes, puis acté par divers modes collectifs d’administration, ce cycle théâtral joue la carte de la décentralisation et de la démocratisation dans la compétition à laquelle se livrent les théâtres français de plein air du Midi.À la faveur de représentations ambitieuses (drame antique, opéra et création recensés) et d’une fréquentation populaire due aux dispositifs de l’administration municipale, ce cycle devient un outil de communication territoriale au cœur des enjeux du spectacle de masse. En favorisant les échanges culturels et économiques entre Nîmes et Paris (Comédie-Française, Opéra de Paris), Nîmes et les grandes villes (orchestres de Marseille, de Lyon), il participe des processus de représentation et de structuration des idéologies marquantes durant l’entre-deux-guerres. En particulier, l’enceinte antique réanime le projet citoyen et patriotique du Théâtre pour le peuple (1903), tant par ses thématiques de programmation (cycles de théâtre grec antique de 1911 à 1914, Fêtes de la Victoire en 1919) que par les contributions musicales des chorales et musiques de régiment locales en musique de scène. Les organisateurs n’oublient pas de négocier la place des pratiques culturelles locales (corrida interpolée, centenaire de Mistral pour Mireille, etc.) pour connecter le cycle à son territoire. Cette communication surgit tant du discours des acteurs (organisateur, édile, artiste) que de celui de la réception, qui active l’identité latine sous les auspices du Félibrige. Le dépouillement des archives de Nîmes et du Gard nourrit cette investigation, inexplorée jusqu’à nos récentes publications

Présentation

Le 17 octobre 2008 à l’université de Nantes s’est tenu, à l’initiative du CAPA (Centre atlantique de philosophie allemande), un colloque intitulé « Europes phénoménologiques ». Outre les conférenciers, étaient notamment présents Jean-François Courtine, Jean-Marie Lardic (directeur du CAPA) et André Stanguennec (professeur émérite de l’université de Nantes), qui ont bien voulu présider les séances. André Stanguennec nous a finalement livré une ét..

Analyse de pratique et formation des enseignants de français langue étrangère

National audienceDans cet article, nous proposons de présenter les concepts qui sont liés à la pratique réflexive et les principes qui justifient son intégration, par la mise en place d'analyse de pratique, dans la formation des enseignants de fle

Effects of nutritional cues on the duration of the winter anovulatory phase and on associated hormone levels in adult female Welsh pony horses (Equus caballus)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mares have an annual reproductive rhythm, with a phase of inactivity in midwinter. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of food restriction on physiological and metabolic hallmarks of this rhythm.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over three successive years, 3 groups of 10 mares were kept under natural photoperiod. A 'well-fed' group was fed to maintain the mares in good body condition; a 'restricted' group received a diet calculated to keep the mares thin and a 'variable' group was fed during some periods like the 'restricted' group and during some other periods like the 'well-fed' group, with the aim of mimicking the natural seasonal variation of pasture availability, but a few months in advance of this natural rhythm.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Winter ovarian inactivity always occurred and was long in the restricted group. In contrast, in the 'well-fed' group, 40% of mares showed this inactivity, which was shorter than in the other groups. Re-feeding the 'variable' group in autumn and winter did not advance the first ovulation in spring, compared with the 'restricted' group. Measurements of glucose and insulin concentrations in mares from the 'restricted' group during two 24 h periods of blood sampling, revealed no post-prandial peaks. For GH (Growth hormone), IGF-1 and leptin levels, large differences were found between the 'well-fed' group and the other groups. The glucose, insulin, GH and leptin levels but not melatonin level are highly correlated with the duration of ovulatory activity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The annual rhythm driven by melatonin secretion is only responsible for the timing of the breeding season. The occurrence and length of winter ovarian inactivity is defined by metabolic hormones.</p

The "Ram Effect": A "Non-Classical" Mechanism for Inducing LH Surges in Sheep

During spring sheep do not normally ovulate but exposure to a ram can induce ovulation. In some ewes an LH surge is induced immediately after exposure to a ram thus raising questions about the control of this precocious LH surge. Our first aim was to determine the plasma concentrations of oestradiol (E2) E2 in anoestrous ewes before and after the "ram effect" in ewes that had a "precocious" LH surge (starting within 6 hours), a "normal" surge (between 6 and 28h) and "late» surge (not detected by 56h). In another experiment we tested if a small increase in circulating E2 could induce an LH surge in anoestrus ewes. The concentration of E2 significantly was not different at the time of ram introduction among ewes with the three types of LH surge. "Precocious" LH surges were not preceded by a large increase in E2 unlike "normal" surges and small elevations of circulating E2 alone were unable to induce LH surges. These results show that the "precocious" LH surge was not the result of E2 positive feedback. Our second aim was to test if noradrenaline (NA) is involved in the LH response to the "ram effect". Using double labelling for Fos and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) we showed that exposure of anoestrous ewes to a ram induced a higher density of cells positive for both in the A1 nucleus and the Locus Coeruleus complex compared to unstimulated controls. Finally, the administration by retrodialysis into the preoptic area, of NA increased the proportion of ewes with an LH response to ram odor whereas treatment with the α1 antagonist Prazosin decreased the LH pulse frequency and amplitude induced by a sexually active ram. Collectively these results suggest that in anoestrous ewes NA is involved in ram-induced LH secretion as observed in other induced ovulators