Effects of Colorectal Cancer Screening on Population Health: a modeling assessment

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the Netherlands and other developed countries. Each year, more than 10,000 cases are newly diagnosed in the Netherlands and over 1 million worldwide. About half of these patients die of the disease. CRC is most common in Europe, North America, Australia and Japan (Figure 1.1). The Western diet is the most likely cause for the high incidence in these countries. This causation is supported by the increasing trend in CRC incidence in newly industrialized countries and the high CRC incidence in non‐Western immigrants in for example the U.S. and Australia

Attribution of Colonoscopy Risk Does Not FIT! Reply

Cellular mechanisms in basic and clinical gastroenterology and hepatolog

Utilization of surveillance after polypectomy in the Medicare population

Background: Surveillance in patients with previous polypectomy was underused in the Medicare population in 1994. This study investigates whether expansion of Medicare reimbursement for colonoscopy screening in high-risk individuals has reduced the inappropriate use of surveillance. Methods: We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to estimate time to surveillance and polyp recurrence rates for Medicare beneficiaries with a colonoscopy with polypectomy between 1998 and 2003 who were followed through 2008 for receipt of surveillance colonoscopy. Generalized Estimating Equations were used to estimate risk factors for: 1) failing to undergo surveillance and 2)

Colorectal cancer risk after removal of polyps in fecal immunochemical test based screening

Background: Colonoscopy surveillance intervals are based on the predicted risk of metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) after polyp removal. However, risk estimation per polyp subtype is difficult due to the fact that many patients have multiple polyps. To enable risk estimation per polyp subtypes we examined the metachronous CRC risk of subgroups based on presence or absence of co-occurring findings. Methods: Using high-quality screening colonoscopies performed after a positive fecal immunochemical test between 2014 and 2020 within the Dutch CRC screening program, we applied Cox regression analysis to evaluate the association between findings at baseline colonoscopy and metachronous CRCs. For our primary outcome, we appointed each patient to unique subgroups based on removed polyp subtypes that were present or absent at baseline colonoscopy and used the groups without polyps as reference. High-risk subgroups were individuals with high-risk serrated polyps, defined as serrated polyp ≥10 mm, sessile serrated lesions with dysplasia, or traditional serrated adenomas, as well as high-risk adenomas, defined as adenoma ≥10 mm or containing high-grade dysplasia. Findings: In total 253,833 colonoscopies were included. Over a median follow-up of 36 months (IQR, 21–57), we identified 504 metachronous CRCs. Hazard ratios for metachronous CRC was 1.70 (95% CI, 1.07–2.69) for individuals with high-risk serrated polyps without high-risk adenomas, 1.22 (0.96–1.55) for individuals with high-risk adenomas without high-risk serrated polyps, and 2.00 (1.19–3.39) for individuals with high-risk serrated polyps and high-risk adenomas, compared to patients without polyps. Interpretation: Accounting for co-occurring findings, we observed an increased metachronous CRC risk for individuals that had high-risk serrated polyps with the presence of high-risk adenomas, or individuals with high-risk serrated polyps without high-risk adenomas. These findings could provide more evidence to support post-polypectomy surveillance guidelines. Funding: None.</p

Prevalence and Clinical Features of Sessile Serrated Polyps: A Systematic Review

Background & Aims: Sessile serrated polyps (SSPs) could account for a substantial proportion of colorectal cancers. We aimed to increase clarity on SSP prevalence and clinical features. Methods: We performed a systematic review of MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane databases for original studies published in English since 2000. We included studies of different populations (United States general or similar), interventions (colonoscopy, autopsy), comparisons (world regions, alternative polyp definitions, adenoma), outcomes (prevalence, clinical features), and study designs (cross-sectional). Random-effects regression was used for meta-analysis where possible. Results: We identified 74 relevant colonoscopy studies. SSP prevalence varied by world region, from 2.6% in Asia (95% confidence interval [CI], 0–5.9) to 10.5% in Australia (95% CI, 2.8–18.2). Prevalence values did not differ significantly between the United States and Europe (P = .51); the pooled prevalence was 4.6% (95% CI, 3.4–5.8), and SSPs accounted for 9.4% of polyps with malignant potential (95% CI, 6.6–12.3). The mean prevalence was higher when assessed through high-performance examinations (9.1%; 95% CI, 4.0–14.2; P = .04) and with an alternative definition of clinically relevant serrated polyps (12.3%; 95% CI, 9.3–15.4; P < .001). Increases in prevalence with age were not statistically significant, and prevalence did not differ significantly by sex. Compared with adenomas, a higher proportion of SSPs were solitary (69.0%; 95% CI, 45.9–92.1; P = .08), with diameters of 10 mm or more (19.3%; 95% CI, 12.4–26.2; P = .13) and were proximal (71.5%; 95% CI, 63.5–79.5; P = .008). The mean ages for detection of SSP without dysplasia, with any or low-grade dysplasia, and with high-grade dysplasia were 60.8 years, 65.6 years, and 70.2 years, respectively. The range for proportions of SSPs with dysplasia was 3.7%–42.9% across studies, possibly reflecting different study populations. Conclusions: In a systematic review, we found that SSPs are relatively uncommon compared with adenoma. More research is needed on appropriate diagnostic criteria, variations in detection, and long-term risk

Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy in first-degree female relatives with Lynch syndrome of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer in the United States: a microsimulation study

Background To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy (PH) in women with Lynch syndrome (LS). Methods We developed a microsimulation model incorporating the natural history for the development of hyperplasia with and without atypia into endometrial cancer (EC) based on the MISCAN-framework. We simulated women identified as first-degree relatives (FDR) with LS of colorectal cancer patients after universal testing for LS. We estimated costs and benefits of offering this cohort PH, accounting for reduced quality of life after PH and for having EC. Three minimum ages (30/35/40) and three maximum ages (70/75/80) were compared to no PH. Results In the absence of PH, the estimated number of EC cases was 300 per 1,000 women with LS. Total associated costs for treatment of EC were $5.9 million. Offering PH to FDRs aged 40-80 years was considered optimal. This strategy reduced the number of endometrial cancer cases to 5.4 (-98$15.0 million (+154%) per 1,000 women. PH from earlier ages was more costly and resulted in fewer QALYs, although this finding was sensitive to disutility for PH. Conclusions Offering PH to 40- to 80-year-old women with LS is expected to add 0.5 QALY per person at acceptable costs. Women may decide to have PH at a younger age, depending on their individual disutility for PH and premature menopause.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researchAnalysis and support of clinical decision makin

Cost-effectiveness of surveillance schedules in older adults with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of surveillance schedules for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) amongst older adults. Patients and Methods: We developed a MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (MISCAN) microsimulation model to compare the cost-effectiveness of various surveillance schedules (every 3 months to every 24 months, for 2, 5 or 10 years or lifetime) for older adults (aged 65–85 years) with NMIBC. For each surveillance schedule we calculated total costs per patient and the number of quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), as incremental costs per QALY gained, were calculated using a 3% discount. Results: As age increased, the number of QALYs gained per patient decreased substantially. Surveillance of patients aged 65 years resulted in 2–7 QALYs gained, whereas surveillance at age 85 years led to 75 years, the incremental yield of QALY gains for any increase in surveillance frequency and/or duration was quite modest (<2 QALYs gained). Conclusion: With increasing age, surveillance for recurrences leads to substantially fewer QALYs gained. These data support age-specific surveillance re

Impact of colorectal cancer screening on cancer-specific mortality in Europe: A systematic review

Background: Populations differ with respect to their cancer risk and screening preferences, which may influence the performance of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. This review aims to

Serrated polyp detection and risk of interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Background Adenoma detection rate (ADR) is a well-established quality indicator for colonoscopy and is inversely associated with the incidence of interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer. However, interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers frequently develop from serrated polyps, which are not included in the ADR. Therefore, the proximal serrated polyp detection rate (PSPDR) has been proposed as a quality indicator, but its association with interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer has not been studied. We aimed to evaluate this potential association based on data collected in the Dutch colorectal cancer screening programme. Methods In this population-based study, using colonoscopy data from the Dutch faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programme and cancer data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, we evaluated the association between endoscopists' individual PSPDR and their patients' risk of interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer with a shared frailty Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis. Participants in the screening programme who were eligible for inclusion were aged 55-76 years, had a positive faecal immunochemical test (cutoff 15 mu g Hb/g faeces at start and changed mid-2014 to 47 mu g Hb/g faeces), were asymptomatic, and underwent a colonoscopy between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2020. The PSPDR was defined as the proportion of colonoscopies in which at least one serrated polyp proximal to the descending colon was detected, confirmed by histopathology. The ADR was defined as the proportion of all colonoscopies in which at least one conventional adenoma was detected, confirmed by histopathology. Detection rates were determined for each endoscopist individually. We additionally evaluated the risk of interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer for endoscopists with a PSPDR and ADR above the median versus endoscopists with either one or both parameters below the median. This study is registered with the Netherlands Trial Registry, NL8350. Findings During the study period, 329 104 colonoscopies were done, of which 277 555, done by 441 endoscopists, were included in the PSPDR calculations. The median PSPDR was 11.9% (IQR 8.3-15.8) and median ADR was 66.3% (61.4-69.9). The correlation between the PSDPR and ADR was moderate (r=0.59; p < 0middot0001). During a median follow-up of 33 months (IQR 21-42), 305 interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers were detected. For each percentage point increase in PSPDR, the adjusted interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer hazard was 7% lower (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.95; p < 0middot0001). Compared with endoscopists with a PSPDR greater than 11middot9% and ADR greater than 66middot3%, the HR of interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer for endoscopists with a low PSPDR and high ADR was 1.79 (95% CI 1.22-2.63), for endoscopists with a high PSPDR and low ADR was 1.97 (1.19-3.24), and for endoscopists with a low PSPDR and low ADR was 2.55 (1.89-3.45). Gastroenterology, (Prof Gastroenterology the (Prof Interpretation The PSPDR of an endoscopist is inversely associated with the incidence of interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer. Implementation of PSPDR monitoring, in addition to ADR monitoring, could optimise colorectal cancer prevention. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Cellular mechanisms in basic and clinical gastroenterology and hepatolog

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model

This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain that also produced net savings when a long follow-up was used to capture the late economic benefit. The number of colonoscopies required was high but remain within the capacity of the Basque Health Service. So far in Europe, no other population Colorectal Cancer screening programme has been evaluated by budget impact analysis