On the existence of the true value of a probability. Part 2: The representation theorem and the ergodic theory

Some authors, basing their ideas on the exchangeability property, on the postulates of the representation theorem and on its interpretation in the ambit of ergodic theory, believed to find a counterexample to the subjectivist model through the theoretical justification of the existence of an objective probability. As a proof of the inconsistency of this reasoning, the representation theorem allows to assert that the convergence of the relative frequency on a “true value” of the probability is only a metaphysical illusion motivated by an asymptotic behaviour of the personal assessments of initial probabilities, leading to intersubjective assignment. With regard to the ergodic theory, its assimilation to the propensity model allows the demonstration of its metaphysical character and the resulting subjectivity in the assignment f probabilities.

On the existence of the true value of a probability. Part I: Determinism versus aleatorism

Objetivist models are based on the deterministic hypothesis that postulates the existence of probability, which is cognoscible only in an asymptotic manner. On the other hand, subjectivist models consider the aleatoristic hypothesis according to which there is no truth about probability. However, both hypotheses may only be compared through stochastic models, which are not strictly falsifiable. Therefore, neither the hypothesis stating the existence of a true value regarding the probability of occurrence of an event nor de Finetti´s postulate which sustains that “probability does not exist” are strictly verifiable.

Studio batimorfologico e sismostratigrafico di un settore sommerso tra Lipari e Salina

Il Canale di Lipari-Salina, nell'arcipelago eoliano, è un’area di raccolta di sedimento vulcanoclastico posta in posizione prossimale rispetto ai fianchi sommersi delle due isole. L’analisi di dati batimetrici multibeam e sismici ad alta risoluzione ha permesso di analizzarne le caratteristiche batimorfologiche e stratigrafiche e di fare alcune considerazioni sulla sua formazione

European Sustainability Reporting Standards : En kvalitativ analyse av kommentarbrev publisert av selskaper i revisjonsbransjen mot ISAE 3000-rammeverket og EFRAGs utkast til standard for bærekraftsrapportering

Today, there is a great focus and many expectations on how sustainability reporting for the business sector in Europe will be and how it will be prepared. The background of the study is EFRAG’s launch of a public publication of the draft of a European sustainability standard, with various requirements linked to 13 sustainability themes, with a deadline for feedback in August 2022. A broad variety of different stakeholders responded to the draft, through a two-part survey. The new sustainability standard is a part of CSRD and is expected to enter into force from 2024. The set of standards is called the European Sustainability Reporting Standard (ESRS). The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the auditing industry reacted to the draft of ESRS. Thereafter to investigate the challenges and suggestions for improvement, by analyzing published comment letters and surveys. Our research question of this thesis is “what reactions and expectations from the auditing industry have come as a result of the draft on the sustainability reporting standards, and which challenges does this entail for the auditors’ assurance of non-financial information?”. In order to answer this question, we have utilized relevant theory and research as our starting point. Furthermore, we have used qualitative theory, feedback from the companies within the auditing industry, the ESRS and ISAE 3000 standards. We find that the feedback can be linked to five conditions: the use of a materiality assessment, the value chain, the implementation process, the auditor’s assurance of non-financial information and information overload.nhhma

Una perspectiva regional a cincuenta años de la Partición de Palestina

La presente charla pretende realizar un análisis de los 50 años de la partición de Palestina desde una perspectiva que contemple la evolución del funcionamiento del sistema político regional desde 1947 hasta el presente. Si bien los efectos de la partición han afectado de manera progresiva a prácticamente todos los actores políticos de la región, trataré de circunscribirme a los países árabes afectados de manera directa e inmediata, ya que son ellos los que han tenido el rol más activo y comprometido en este asunto. Otros actores regionales del Medio Oriente, árabes y no árabes que hoy se ven involucrados de manera más directa con esta cuestión, estuvieron más o menos alejados de los efectos políticos iniciales de la Partición y por ello tuvieron en su día un rol menos protagónico. Claro está entonces que este planteo no pretende descartar las repercusiones en el resto del Mundo Árabe e Islámico, actualmente vinculados de lleno a esta problemática. (Párrafo extraído del texto a modo de resumen)Instituto de Relaciones Internacionales (IRI