Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era

Deflation has had a bad rap, largely based on the experience of the 1930's when deflation was synonymous with depression. Recent experience with declining prices in Japan and China together with the concern over deflation in Europe and the United States has led to renewed attention to the topic of deflation. In this paper we focus our attention on the deflation experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany in the late nineteenth century during a period characterized by low deflation, rapid productivity growth, positive output growth, and where many nations had a credible nominal anchor based on gold: circumstances which have resonance with the world of today. We identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and money supply shocks using a structural panel vector autoregression. We then use historical decompositions to investigate the impact that these structural shocks had on output and prices. Our findings are that the deflation of the late nineteenth century reflected both positive aggregate supply shocks and negative money supply shocks. However, the negative money supply shocks had little effect on output. This we posit is because the aggregate supply curve was very steep in the short run during this period. This contrasts greatly with the deflation experience during the Great Depression. Thus our empirical evidence suggests that deflation in the nineteenth century was primarily good.

Distributed Queries for Quality Control Checks in Clinical Trials

Operational Quality Control (QC) checks are standard practice in clinical trials and ensure ongoing compliance with the study protocol, standard operating procedures (SOPs) and Good Clinical Practice (GCP). We present a method for defining QC checks as distributed queries over case report forms (CRF) and clinical imaging data- sources. Our distributed query system can integrate time-sensitive information in order to populate QC checks that can facilitate discrepancy resolution workflow in clinical trials

Phased Array Feed Calibration, Beamforming and Imaging

Phased array feeds (PAFs) for reflector antennas offer the potential for increased reflector field of view and faster survey speeds. To address some of the development challenges that remain for scientifically useful PAFs, including calibration and beamforming algorithms, sensitivity optimization, and demonstration of wide field of view imaging, we report experimental results from a 19 element room temperature L-band PAF mounted on the Green Bank 20-Meter Telescope. Formed beams achieved an aperture efficiency of 69% and system noise temperature of 66 K. Radio camera images of several sky regions are presented. We investigate the noise performance and sensitivity of the system as a function of elevation angle with statistically optimal beamforming and demonstrate cancelation of radio frequency interference sources with adaptive spatial filtering.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figure

Decoherence suppression via environment preparation

To protect a quantum system from decoherence due to interaction with its environment, we investigate the existence of initial states of the environment allowing for decoherence-free evolution of the system. For models in which a two-state system interacts with a dynamical environment, we prove that such states exist if and only if the interaction and self-evolution Hamiltonians share an eigenstate. If decoherence by state preparation is not possible, we show that initial states minimizing decoherence result from a delicate compromise between the environment and interaction dynamics.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

The Lessons from the Banking Panics in the United States in the 1930s for the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008

In this paper we revisit the debate over the role of the banking panics in 1930-33 in precipitating the Great Contraction. The issue hinges over whether the panics were illiquidity shocks and hence in support of Friedman and Schwartz (1963) greatly exacerbated the recession which had begun in 1929, or whether they largely reflected insolvency in response to the recession caused by other forces. Based on a VAR and new data on the sources of bank failures in the 1930s from Richardson (2007), we find that illiquidity shocks played a key role in explaining the bank failures during the Friedman and Schwartz banking panic windows. In the recent crisis the Federal Reserve learned the Friedman and Schwartz lesson from the banking panics of the 1930s of conducting expansionary open market policy to meet demands for liquidity. Unlike the 1930s the deepest problem of the recent crisis was not illiquidity but insolvency and especially the fear of insolvency of counterparties.

Lightweight distributed XML-based integration of translational data

A distributed XQuery engine sends sub queries to separate XML data sources, and then combines the results into a single XML composite result. The system is lightweight in that it is very simple to add a new data source. An illustrative example is given for integrating data from an electronic data capture (EDC) system and a separate specimen management system

CD4 cell count recovery among HIV-infected patients with very advanced immunodeficiency commencing antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: Patients accessing antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa frequently have very advanced immunodeficiency. Previous data suggest that such patients may have diminished capacity for CD4 cell count recovery. METHODS: Rates of CD4 cell increase were determined over 48 weeks among ART-naïve individuals (n = 596) commencing ART in a South African community-based ART programme. RESULTS: The CD4 cell count increased from a median of 97 cells/μl at baseline to 261 cells/μl at 48 weeks and the proportion of patients with a CD4 cell count <100 cells/μl decreased from 51% at baseline to just 4% at 48 weeks. A rapid first phase of recovery (0–16 weeks, median rate = 25.5 cells/μl/month) was followed by a slower second phase (16–48 weeks, median rate = 7.7 cells/μl/month). Compared to patients with higher baseline counts, multivariate analysis showed that those with baseline CD4 counts <50 cells/μl had similar rates of phase 1 CD4 cell recovery (P = 0.42), greater rates of phase 2 recovery (P = 0.007) and a lower risk of immunological non-response (P = 0.016). Among those that achieved a CD4 cell count >500 cells/μl at 48 weeks, 19% had baseline CD4 cell counts <50 cells/μl. However, the proportion of these patients that attained a CD4 count 200 cells/μl at 48 weeks was lower than those with higher baseline CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Patients in this cohort with baseline CD4 cell counts <50 cells/μl have equivalent or greater capacity for immunological recovery during 48 weeks of ART compared to those with higher baseline CD4 cell counts. However, their CD4 counts remain <200 cells/μl for a longer period, potentially increasing their risk of morbidity and mortality in the first year of ART

Factors associated with geographic variation in cost per episode of care for three medical conditions

Objective: To identify associations between market factors, especially relative reimbursement rates, and the probability of surgery and cost per episode for three medical conditions (cataract, benign prostatic neoplasm, and knee degeneration) with multiple treatment options. Methods: We use 2004–2006 Medicare claims data for elderly beneficiaries from sixty nationally representative communities to estimate multivariate models for the probability of surgery and cost per episode of care as a function local market factors, including Medicare physician reimbursement for surgical versus non-surgical treatment and the availability of primary care and specialty physicians. We used Symmetry’s Episode Treatment Groups (ETG) software to group claims into episodes for the three conditions (n = 540,874 episodes). Results: Higher Medicare reimbursement for surgical episodes and greater availability of the relevant specialists are significantly associated with more surgery and higher cost per episode for all three conditions, while greater availability of primary care physicians is significantly associated with less frequent surgery and lower cost per episode. Conclusion: Relative Medicare reimbursement rates for surgical vs. non-surgical treatments and the availability of both primary care physicians and relevant specialists are associated with the likelihood of surgery and cost per episode

Plasma levels of soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and early mortality risk among patients enrolling for antiretroviral treatment in South Africa

BACKGROUND: Serum concentrations of soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) have a strong independent association with HIV-1-related mortality. The practical utility of plasma suPAR in assessing short-term all-cause mortality risk was evaluated in patients with advanced immunodeficiency enrolling in an antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme in South Africa. METHODS: An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure plasma concentrations of suPAR in patients at the time of enrollment to the ART programme. The association between plasma suPAR concentrations, baseline patient characteristics and cohort outcomes after 4 months of ART were determined. RESULTS: Patients (n = 293, 70% female) had a median age of 33 years and were followed up for a median of 5 months from enrollment. The median CD4 cell count was 47 cells/mul (IQR = 22-72) and 38% of patients had WHO stage 4 disease. 218 (74%) patients remained alive after 4 months of ART; 39 (13%) died and 36 (12%) were lost to the programme for other reasons. Patients who died had significantly higher plasma suPAR concentrations compared to those who either survived (P < 0.01) or left the programme for other reasons (P < 0.043). In multivariate analysis, higher log10 suPAR concentrations were significantly associated with lower CD4 cell counts, WHO clinical stage 4 disease and male sex. In multivariate analysis to identify factors associated with death, log10 suPAR concentration was the most strongly associated variable (P < 0.001). However, examination of sensitivity and specificity characteristics using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that results from this assay did not have a discriminatory cut-point to provide clinically useful information. CONCLUSION: Plasma suPAR concentration was the strongest independent predictor of short-term mortality risk among patients with advanced immunodeficiency enrolling in this ART programme. However, lack of a discriminatory threshold did not permit this marker to be used to triage patients according to short-term mortality risk