A multiple case study investigating changes in organizations serving residents with intellectual disabilities and challenging behaviours

Background: the present authors examined changes made in disability service organizations supporting residents with intellectual disabilities and challenging behaviours, because these changes may influence residents’ support and subsequently their challenging behaviours. Method: In this multiple case study, the present authors collected and qualitatively analysed data (organizational documents, meetings records and focus group reports) on organizational changes made in two specialized Dutch disability service organizations, using ecological theory as a sensitizing framework and the constant comparative method. Results: Themes describing organizational changes in this context were as follows: a messy start to the transition; staff, professionals and managers remain at a distance; staff members’ ability to change; clear boundaries between formal and informal caregivers; and staff’s feelings of being unheard. Conclusions: Organizational changes can enhance, but also limit, the quality of residential support services provided to people with intellectual disabilities and challenging behaviours. The change process and impact of organizational changes on residents must be examined closely

Convective initiation and storm life‐cycles in convection‐permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model over South Africa

Convective initiation is a challenge for convection‐permitting models due to its sensitivity to sub‐km processes. We evaluate the representation of convective storms and their initiation over South Africa during four summer months in Met Office Unified Model simulations at 1.5‐km horizontal grid length. Storm size distributions from the model compare well against radar observations, but rainfall in the model is predominantly produced by large storms (50 km in diameter or larger) in the evening, whereas radar observations show most rainfall occurs throughout the afternoon, from storms 10‐50 km in diameter. In all months, modelled maximum number of storm initiations occurs at least 2 hours prior to the radar‐observed maximum. However, the diurnal cycle of rainfall compares well between model and observations, suggesting the numerous storm initiations in the simulations do not produce much rainfall. Modelled storms are generally less intense than in the radar observations, especially in early summer. In February, when tropical influences dominate, the simulated storms are of similar intensity to observed storms. Simulated storms tend to reach their peak intensity in the first 15 minutes after initiation, then gradually become less intense as they grow. In radar observations, storms reach their peak intensity 15‐30 minutes into their life cycle, stay intense as they grow larger, then gradually weaken after they have reached their maximum diameter. Two November case studies of severe convection are analysed in detail. Higher resolution grid length initiates convection slightly earlier (300 m cf. 1.5 km) with the same science settings. Two 1.5‐km simulations that apply more sub‐grid mixing have delayed convective initiation. Analysis of soundings indicates little difference in convective indices, suggesting that differences in convection may be attributed to choices in sub‐grid mixing parameters

Evaluating South African Weather Service information on Idai tropical cyclone and KwaZulu-Natal flood events

Severe weather events associated with strong winds and flooding can cause fatalities, injuries and damage to property. Detailed and accurate weather forecasts that are issued and communicated timeously, and actioned upon, can reduce the impact of these events. The responsibility to provide such forecasts usually lies with government departments or state-owned entities; in South Africa that responsibility lies with the South African Weather Service (SAWS). SAWS is also a regional specialised meteorological centre and therefore provides weather information to meteorological services within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). We evaluated SAWS weather information using near real-time observations and models on the nowcasting to short-range forecasting timescales during two extreme events. These are the Idai tropical cyclone in March 2019 which impacted Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi resulting in over 1000 deaths, and the floods over the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province in April 2019 that caused over 70 deaths. Our results show that weather models gave an indication of these systems in advance, with warnings issued at least 2 days in advance in the case of Idai and 1 day in advance for the KZN floods. Nowcasting systems were also in place for detailed warnings to be provided as events progressed. Shortcomings in model simulations were shown, in particular on locating the KZN flood event properly and over/-underestimation of the event. The impacts experienced during the two events indicate that more needs to be done to increase weather awareness, and build disaster risk management systems, including disaster preparedness and risk reduction.Significance: This paper is relevant for all South Africans and the SADC region at large because it provides information on: the weather forecasting processes followed at the South African Weather Service, available early warning products in South Africa and for the SADC region made possible through the public purse, the performance of nowcasting and modelling systems in the case of predicting two extreme weather events that had adverse impacts on southern African society, and the dissemination of warnings of future extreme weather events

Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change

Advances towards the development of a cloud-resolving model in South Africa

Recent advances in supercomputing have made feasible the numerical integration of high-resolution cloudresolving models (CRMs). CRMs are being used increasingly for high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction and for research purposes. We report on the development of a new CRM in South Africa. Two bulk microphysics parameterisation schemes were introduced to a dynamical core of a two-dimensional Non-hydrostatic σ-coordinate Model (NSM) developed in South Africa. The resulting CRM was used to simulate two 12-day periods and an 8-day period observed during the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The response of the NSM to the large-scale forcing which occurred over the three periods, and which included both suppressed and active convection, was examined. The NSM is shown to be able to capture the differences in the three experiments and responds correctly to the large-scale forcing (i.e. it is able to distinguish between suppressed and active regimes). However, the model simulations are cooler and drier than the observations. We demonstrate progress made in the development of a CRM in South Africa, which can be used to study the attributes of convective rainfall over the region.The CSIR is acknowledged for funding this work through a parliamentary grant and Young Researcher Establishment Funds.http://www.sajs.co.za/am201

Simulations of an isolated two-dimensional thunderstorm : sensitivity to cloud droplet size and the presence of graupel

Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) which are used increasingly to make operational forecasts, employ Bulk Microphysics Schemes (BMSs) to describe cloud microphysical processes. In this study two BMSs are employed in a new Nonhydrostatic σ-coordinate Model to perform two hour simulations of convection initiated by a warm bubble, using a horizontal grid resolution of 500 m. Different configurations of the two BMSs are applied, to test the effects of the presence of graupel with one scheme (2-configurations) and of changing the cloud droplet sizes in the second scheme (4-configurations), on the simulation of idealised thunderstorms. Maximum updrafts in all the simulations are similar over the first 40 minutes, but start to differ beyond this point. The first scheme simulates the development of a second convective cell that is triggered by the cold pool that develops from the outflow of the first storm. The cold pool is more intense in the simulation with graupel because of melting of graupel particles, which results in relatively large raindrops, decreases the temperature through latent heat absorption, causing stronger downdrafts, which all contribute to the formation of a more intense cold pool. The second scheme simulates the development of a second cell in two of its configurations, while two other configurations do not simulate the redevelopment. Two configurations that simulate the secondary redevelopment produce a slightly stronger cold pool just before redevelopment. Our results show that small differences in the microphysics formulations result in simulations of storm dynamics that diverge, possibly due nonlinearities in the model.CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment for funding this work through parliamentary grant funding and Young Researcher Establishment Funds. The Centre for High Performance Computing (CHPC) in South Africa. The Applied Centre for Climate and Earth System Science (ACCESS) .http://link.springer.com/journal/13143hb201

Evaluating South African weather service information on Idai tropical cyclone and KwaZulu- Natal flood events

Severe weather events associated with strong winds and flooding can cause fatalities, injuries and damage to property. Detailed and accurate weather forecasts that are issued and communicated timeously, and actioned upon, can reduce the impact of these events. The responsibility to provide such forecasts usually lies with government departments or state-owned entities; in South Africa that responsibility lies with the South African Weather Service (SAWS). SAWS is also a regional specialised meteorological centre and therefore provides weather information to meteorological services within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). We evaluated SAWS weather information using near real-time observations and models on the nowcasting to short-range forecasting timescales during two extreme events. These are the Idai tropical cyclone in March 2019 which impacted Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi resulting in over 1000 deaths, and the floods over the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province in April 2019 that caused over 70 deaths. Our results show that weather models gave an indication of these systems in advance, with warnings issued at least 2 days in advance in the case of Idai and 1 day in advance for the KZN floods. Nowcasting systems were also in place for detailed warnings to be provided as events progressed. Shortcomings in model simulations were shown, in particular on locating the KZN flood event properly and over/underestimation of the event. The impacts experienced during the two events indicate that more needs to be done to increase weather awareness, and build disaster risk management systems, including disaster preparedness and risk reduction. Significance: This paper is relevant for all South Africans and the SADC region at large because it provides information on: • the weather forecasting processes followed at the South African Weather Service, • available early warning products in South Africa and for the SADC region made possible through the public purse, • the performance of nowcasting and modelling systems in the case of predicting two extreme weather events that had adverse impacts on southern African society, and • the dissemination of warnings of future extreme weather events.The Climate Research for Development (CR4D) Postdoctoral Fellowship CR4D-19-11 implemented by the African Academy of Sciences (AAS) in partnership with the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DfID) Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa (WISER) programme and the African Climate Policy Center (ACPC) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).http://www.sajs.co.zaam2022Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

Libbie Hyman

66 p. : ill. ; 26 cm.Study of invertebrates at the American Museum of Natural History / Neil H. Landman and Judith E. Winston -- Libbie Hyman and the American Museum of Natural History / Judith E. Winston -- Libbie Hyman at the University of Chicago / Jane Maienschein -- Libbie Hyman and comparative vertebrate anatomy / Marvalee H. Wake -- Contributions of Libbie H. Hyman to knowledge of land planarians: relating personal experiences (Tricladida: Terricola) / Robert E. Ogren -- Libbie Henrietta Hyman: her influence on teaching and research in invertebrate zoology / M. Patricia Morse -- Systematics of the flatworms- Libbie Hyman's influence on current views of the Platyhelminthes / Seth Tyler.Includes bibliographical references."This issue of Novitates consists of papers presented at a symposium on the life and work of American zoologist Dr. Libbie Henrietta Hyman, 1888-1969, held at the annual meeting of the American Society of Zoologists in Atlanta, Georgia, December 1991. Judith E. Winston provides an introduction to Libbie Hyman's early years. Growing up in Fort Dodge, Iowa, young Libbie demonstrated a love of nature and a drive for learning that eventually led to a scholarship at the University of Chicago, where she majored in zoology. Jane Maienschein covers Libbie Hyman's Chicago period. During that period Libbie gained experience in experimental biology by participation in Charles Manning Child's research program on metabolic gradients, which applied the "Chicago style" of biology. The lack of good manuals for the comparative anatomy and zoology labs she taught as a graduate student led Libbie to develop her own laboratory manuals, published by the University of Chicago Press. Marvalee Wake discusses Libbie Hyman's interactions with the press about these guides. Hyman's correspondence with press officials revealed her growing frustration as she desired more time to work on invertebrates, but was persuaded to revise vertebrate anatomy texts instead. Despite her protests, her seminal ideas and approaches to learning vetebrate anatomy were profoundly important. Judith Winston discusses Libbie's productive career at the American Museum of Natural History. In 1930, Dr. Hyman left Chicago to pursue the invertebrate work that interested her most-and found a welcome in G. K. Noble's Department of Experimental Biology at the AMNH. With his help she obtained an unpaid position as a research associate, office space, and use of the AMNH library, vital to her project, a treatise on invertebrate zoology. Her 6 volume treatise, The Invertebrates, was published between 1940 and 1967 by McGraw-Hill. In 1943 she transferred to the AMNH Department of Invertebrates. Neil Landman outlines the history of that Department in the Museum, and Libbie's connection with it. M. Patricia Morse discusses Dr. Hyman's influence on invertebrate zoology in general. Her treatise set the tone for invertebrate zoology courses and the publication of books on the subject. Each volume was eagerly received by zoologists, not only for thorough coverage of the literature (including non-English language literature), but also for uniformity of approach, comprehensive illustrations, and thoughtful synthesis of phylogenetic relationships for each group covered. Robert Ogren discusses Libbie Hyman's contributions to land planarian taxonomy. Hyman was the first American zoologist recognized as an authority on Turbellaria, Tricladida, and Terricola. Contributions began after her 1937 appointment as research associate at the American Museum of Natural History and continued for 25 years, resulting in 11 taxonomic papers, the last published in 1962. Seth Tyler discusses Libbie Hyman's overall influence on the systematics of turbellarian flatworms, especially through the comprehensive review of flatworms published in Volume II of The Invertebrates. The system of classification she adopted for the phylum Platyhelminthes was that of Bresslau, dating to 1933. Modern systematists have clarified the phylogenetic relationships of flatworm groups, in particular by using characters discerned with electron microscopy; and application of principles of cladistic systematics has been important in grouping turbellarians and the major groups of parasitic flatworms into supraordinal taxa. A number of competing systems for these higher-level groupings have been proposed, and these are being tested with molecular techniques comparing nucleic-acid sequences. Still, the current best-accepted system clearly bears Hyman's stamp; her views of evolution in the phylum and its taxonomy are still relevant"--P. 2

Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.A Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Parliamentary Grant.http://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerpham201