The Triple-Parity Law

Scientists and epistemologists generally agree that a scientific law must be (a) relatively simple and (b) not contradicted by the available evidence. In this paper we propose and test one such law pertaining to international economics, the triple-parity law. It integrates three well-known equilibrium conditions, which are shown to prevail in the long run, on average and ex post: (i) uncovered nominal interest rate parity (UIP); (ii) relative purchasing power parity (PPP); (iii) real interest rate parity (RIP). Using a cross-section of annual mean values or trend growth rates for 18 OECD countries in the post-Bretton-Woods/pre-EMU floating rate period (1976-1998) and employing a variety of single-equation and system estimation methods, we present robust evidence that the triple-parity law ultimately holds for large and diversified economies. For a few, mostly small and specialized countries, its working is however affected by some significant financial or real comparative (dis)advantages, for which estimates are provided. The law says nothing about short-term dynamics, but it can provide useful benchmarks in this context too, insofar as measures of the speed of convergence to long-run equilibrium are estimated. The triple-parity law, finally, illustrates another, rather fundamental point: if we look beyond short-term fluctuations and vagaries, economic laws do exist in the long run, just as economists used to think in the days of Marshall, Fisher, Walras and Pareto.

Refoulements et réfugiés en Suisse pendant la Deuxième Guerre mondiale Critique des statsitiques... et d'une ou deux autres choses

Whereas the data on civilian refugees admitted by Switzerland during the war are accepted by all, the figures on persons turned away are much more uncertain. Everyone uses today the 1996 estimates by Guido Koller. It is shown that these estimates were calculated in a questionable manner and that they greatly inflate the number of civilian refugees who were turned away. If more recent and reliable figures are taken instead, the estimated admission rates turn out to be very high for the asylum candidates in general and even more so for the Jews among them ; the conclusion being that Swiss practice vis-à-vis the refugees during the war was actually quite generous. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Switzerland did the maximum of what it could reasonably be expected to do. A general policy model vis-à-vis the refugees (then) and vis-à-vis the asylum seekers (today) is presented and explained.history; World War II; Switzerland; refugees; Bergier Commission

A Critical Evaluation of the Bergier Report on "Switzerland and Refugees during the Nazi Era", With a New Analysis of the Issue

The so-called second Bergier report offers a wealth of information as well as some useful and valuable analytical insights, but it also suffers from a number of shortcomings and weaknesses, some of which are quite serious. The significance of important facts is not worked out properly. The abundant numerical data remain unexploited. The analysis is often repetitious and sometimes inconsistent. Many interpreta-tions are far-fetched. The general image of Switzerland's refugee policy it paints is difficult to reconcile with several central facts. Its severe judgements therefore seem to rest on fragile foundations. For all these reasons, a very different and, in part, a novel analysis of Switzerland's policy and practice vis-à-vis the refugees is proposed in a constructive spirit, an analysis that seems fully corroborated by the available information and numerical data.history; World War II; Switzerland; refugees; Bergier Commission

The Triple-Parity Law

Scientists and epistemologists generally agree that a scientific law must be (a) relatively simple and (b) not contradicted by the available evidence. In this paper we propose and test one such law pertaining to international economics, the triple-parity law. It integrates three well-known equilibrium conditions, which are shown to prevail in the long run, on aver-age and ex post: (i) uncovered nominal interest rate parity (UIP); (ii) relative purchasing power parity (PPP); (iii) real interest rate parity (RIP). Using a cross-section of annual mean values or trend growth rates for 18 OECD countries in the post-Bretton-Woods/pre-EMU floating rate period (1976-1998) and employing a variety of single-equation and system estimation methods, we present robust evidence that the triple-parity law ultimately holds for large and diversified economies. For a few, mostly small and specialized countries, its working is however affected by some significant financial or real comparative (dis)advantages, for which estimates are provided. The law says nothing about short-term dynamics, but it can provide useful benchmarks in this context too, insofar as measures of the speed of convergence to long-run equilibrium are estimated. The triple-parity law, finally, illustrates another, rather fundamental point: if we look beyond short-term fluctuations and vagaries, economic laws do exist in the long run, just as economists used to think in the days of Marshall, Fisher, Walras and Pareto

Le débat sur la croissance économique en Suisse Quelles conclusions ? (text in French)

" Switzerland is the growth laggard in the industrial world " - this dismal view has become part and parcel of today's conventional wisdom in Switzerland and elsewhere. We show it to be but partially true : accurate when judged by the trend growth rate of officially recorded real GDPs in 1970-2003, but not when considering what we call "adjusted real gross national incomes" ; i.e. a better measure of the populations' material wellbeing than real GDPs, although less correlated with employment and unemployment. The adjustment has to do with how to deflate the balance of goods and services as well as the balance of factor income. More important, and perhaps novel, is that there appears to be no statistically significant difference between the estimated trend growth rate of Switzerland's corrected gross national income and that of most other European countries : almost all tend to grow at a rate of about 2% p.a. There is however a significant long-term growth differential between these European countries, including Switzerland, and overseas ones such as Australia, Canada and the USA. This is because most of Europe suffers from well-known and weighty structural problems, not necessarily the same everywhere, but which should be addressed urgently and efficiently everywhere. The paper also includes a "parable" on the economic impact of oil price shocks, which may be useful for didactical purposes.real GDP vs. material wellbeing; significantly different trend growth rates; Switzerland vs. other European and overseas economies; structural problems; oil price shocks

Y a-t-il vraiment discrimination salariale contre les femmes ?

Trying to ascertain scientifically the existence and importance of gender-based salary discrimination runs into conceptual and technical difficulties, the implications of which are not always fully appreciated: depending on the approach used, our analysis of a large sample for Switzerland in 1997 concludes that there is significant discrimination against women; or that no discrimination can be detected; or that there is significant discrimination against...men. The approaches used are: direct general regression (for given attributes such as qualification levels, do salaries differ according to gender ?); inverse general regression (for a given salary level, do employers require different attributes, such as qualification levels, depending on gender ?); the Oaxaca-Blinder method (the effect of a given attribute - e.g. age or marital status - on salaries may differ depending on gender and one must therefore estimate and compare separate equations for women and for men); Heckman's correction (focusing on working persons only may give rise to a selection bias). Our general conclusion is agnostic : given the present state of techniques and knowledge, it is not (yet ?) possible to ascertain scientifically the existence of gender-based salary discrimination in Switzerland. This conclusion differs from that reached by pre-existing studies, which tended to underpin the existence of salary discrimination against women.gender-based salary discrimination; direct and inverse regressions; the Oaxaca-Blinder approach; Heckman's correction; Switzerland

Aspects économiques du droit de la concurrence appliqué aux activités bancaires

This paper starts by reviewing the recent literature on antitrust laws in banking from the perspective of general economic analysis. We focus on the US experience for didactic reasons and as a background against which the Swiss case is discussed further on. After an introductory section, we examine some facts about the process of bank expansion, concentration and mergers in the US during the 1980s and 1990s, and then turn to the driving forces as well as the economic concepts used in assessing possible anticompetitive effects. A third section focuses on the origins and development of the legal framework of banking and competition policy. A brief fourth section summarizes the conclusions and lessons to be derived from the American experience. Finally, in a fifth section, we offer some reflections on the case of Switzerland, which appears to be the mirror image of the US as far as the legal, institutional and empirical aspects of the current situation are concerned. The paper concludes by expressing our confidence that future Swiss competition policy and antitrust legislation in banking will largely benefit from the economic knowledge accumulated on the subject, such as that pertaining to the US case.bank mergers and acquisitions; banking regulation; competition policy; antitrust laws

Évaluation critique du Rapport Bergier sur 'La Suisse et les réfugiés à l'époque du national-socialisme' et nouvelle analyse de la question (text in French)

The so-called second Bergier Report offers a wealth of information as well as some useful and valuable analytical insights, but it also suffers from a number of shortcomings and weaknesses, some of which are serious. No use is made of important facts, such as the high admittance chances of the refugees. The abundant numerical data remain mostly unexploited. The analysis is often repetitious and sometimes inconsistent. Many interpretations are farfetched. The general image of Switzerland's refugee policy it paints is difficult to reconcile with several central facts. Its severe judgments therefore seem to rest on fragile foundations. For all these reasons we propose, in a constructive spirit, a very different and, in part, a novel analysis of Switzerland's policy and practice vis-à-vis the refugees, an analysis which seems fully corroborated by the available information and numerical data.history; World War II; Switzerland; refugees; Bergier Commission

La réélection des Conseillers fédéraux : Sanctions ciblées ou résultats prédéterminés ? Une analyse économétrique des réélections au Conseil fédéral

The re-elections to the Swiss Federal Government ('Federal Council') have not been much studied so far. On the basis of the 1947-1999 record, we propose an econometric model of these re-elections, consisting of three identities and two equations. Simulating the model, we find that the scores are predetermined - to the tune of about 50% in recent years - by a number of systematic factors on which the candidates have no influence. The simulation residuals can be interpreted as the personal 'sanctions' (negative or positive) inflicted on the candidates by the Federal Chambers on the basis of their policy and personality. The results of some individual re-elections thus appear a good deal less 'brilliant' or 'deplorable' than would appear on first sight. We finally show that the curve of the scores and that of the requisite majorities tend to get closer and could cross before too long.Swiss Federal Government; re-elections; actual and future scores

Quelques commentaires iconoclastes

Qui dit ingérence dit pouvoir : pour telle ou telle raison, une entité quelconque est plus puissante qu’une autre, ce qui lui permet d’intervenir dans les affaires de cette dernière. Mais qui dit ingérence dit aussi jugement moral, explicite ou implicite : l’ingérence est considérée comme condamnable et automatiquement condamnée, sauf rare exception (l’ingérence humanitaire, et encore). Sans en être totalement absentes, les notions de pouvoir et donc d’ingérence jouent un rôle réduit en écono..