Bringing Statistical Learning Machines Together for Hydro-Climatological Predictions - Case Study for Sacramento San Joaquin River Basin, California

Study region: Sacramento San Joaquin River Basin, California Study focus: The study forecasts the streamflow at a regional scale within SSJ river basin with largescale climate variables. The proposed approach eliminates the bias resulting from predefined indices at regional scale. The study was performed for eight unimpaired streamflow stations from 1962–2016. First, the Singular Valued Decomposition (SVD) teleconnections of the streamflow corresponding to 500 mbar geopotential height, sea surface temperature, 500 mbar specific humidity (SHUM500), and 500 mbar U-wind (U500) were obtained. Second, the skillful SVD teleconnections were screened non-parametrically. Finally, the screened teleconnections were used as the streamflow predictors in the non-linear regression models (K-nearest neighbor regression and data-driven support vector machine). New hydrological insights: The SVD results identified new spatial regions that have not been included in existing predefined indices. The nonparametric model indicated the teleconnections of SHUM500 and U500 being better streamflow predictors compared to other climate variables. The regression models were capable to apprehend most of the sustained low flows, proving the model to be effective for drought-affected regions. It was also observed that the proposed approach showed better forecasting skills with preprocessed large scale climate variables rather than using the predefined indices. The proposed study is simple, yet robust in providing qualitative streamflow forecasts that may assist water managers in making policy-related decisions when planning and managing watersheds

Forage Breeding

Plant breeding is human-directed evolution. This process developed all major crops and their respective races, strains, or cultivars. Although humans have successfully manipulated the genetic resources of plants for several thousand years, the science of genetics and breeding was not developed until the 20th century. Breeding work on a few forage crops began in the early part of the 20th century (Wilkins and Humphreys, 2003) and was focused mainly on developing strains that had improved establishment, persistence, forage yields, and improved insect and disease resistance. These remain essential attributes of cultivated forages (Burton, 1986). In the last 40 yr, objectives have expanded to include improving forage digestibiliry and removing or reducing antiqualiry factors

'Kristin' Sweet Cherry

Kristin' is a new, mid-season, productive, large, black, high quality sweet cherry. It is similar to 'Schmidt' but trees are more winter hardy and more heavily cropping and fruits are larger. It has performed especially well in tests in Norway, Montana, and New York

Improving ensemble streamflow prediction using interdecadal/interannual climate variability

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) river forecast centers provide long-term water resource forecasts for the main river basins in the U.S. The NWS creates seasonal streamflow forecasts using an ensemble prediction model called the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) software. ESP creates runoff volume forecasts by taking the current observed soil moisture and snowpack conditions in the basin and applying them to historical temperature and precipitation scenarios. The ESP treats every historic input year as a likely scenario of future basin conditions. Therefore improving the knowledge about how long-term climate cycles impact streamflow can extend the forecast lead time and improve the quality of long-lead forecasts. First, a study of the existing climate indices is carried out in Chapter 3 to establish which index shows a significant long-lead connection to the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) this step identifies a 1-year lagged relationship between the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) and CRB streamflow. A new SST region is identified in this analysis (named the Hondo region) and compared to the other established climate indices (e.g. SOI, PDO, NAO, AMO). The tests demonstrate Hondo performs better at longer lead times than the existing climate indices.Second, Chapter 4 identifies the climate cycles impacting the CRB streamflow. The SVD analysis performed in Chapter 3 is extended to include the simultaneous (or 0-year lag) as well as the 2nd and 3rd year lag times. Because SST’s and streamflow are basically independent data, this chapter explains the physical connection between them by analyzing the relationship between the ocean, atmosphere and CRB streamflow. This analysis, as well as recent research into the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (PQDO), demonstrates that the CRB streamflow is dominated by a hierarchy of climate drivers. The Hondo is the secondary level which exists between the extreme impacts of the ENSO signal and the longer cyclical patters observed in the PQDO. The current research shows that the QDO cycle leads precipitation by three years, and the Hondo leads the CRB by one to two years. Finally, the information from Chapter 4 reveals that the Hondo region can be used as a basis for weighing the ESP output. This is done because water resource managers create multi-year water plans that are utilized to project power generation supplies and water system improvements. In Chapter 5 several methods of weighing the ESP output based on the Hondo region are presented. Each method is assessed using parametric and non-parametric forecast skill metrics. The overall goal of this chapter is to identify a weighting technique, lag time, and season interval which show a marked improvement over simply using the 30-year mean as a streamflow predictor. From this analysis the forecast skill score is optimized when using the January – March average SST values as a basis for forecasting the streamflow for the following water year

Regional Climate Centers: New Institutions for Climate Service and Climate- Impact Research

In response to the need climate services at the local, state, and regional levels, a national network of regional climate centers has developed. This provides the background to this development, and outlines the functions of the centers and identifies their benefits and beneficiaries. The centers are a source of climate expertise and maintain multifaceted interfaces with the public and private sectors. Each center a) performs services, including the management of the basic data for its region and the delivery of specialized products; b) conducts applied climate studies, including the monitoring of anomalous conditions and the promotin of regional research; and C) acquires and maintains specialized regional datasets. Examples are given for each function. The paper concludes by elaborating on the potential for focused, applied research to enhance the service provided by the regional centers. This includes reference to the current irrigation scheduling information service operated by the HIgh Plains Regional Climate Center

A frictionless microswimmer

We investigate the self-locomotion of an elongated microswimmer by virtue of the unidirectional tangential surface treadmilling. We show that the propulsion could be almost frictionless, as the microswimmer is propelled forward with the speed of the backward surface motion, i.e. it moves throughout an almost quiescent fluid. We investigate this swimming technique using the special spheroidal coordinates and also find an explicit closed-form optimal solution for a two-dimensional treadmiler via complex-variable techniques.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Genotype and Genotype X Environment Interaction Effects on Forage Yield and Quality of Crested Wheatgrasses

Genotype, environment, and genotype X environment interaction effects for forage yield and quality of the crested wheatgrasses (Agropyron cristatum) and (A. desertorum) were studied using an array of 42 crested wheatgrass introductions, experimental lines, and released cultivars that were selected to be representative of the mix of germplasm available to a breeder. They were grown in two environments, Lincoln and Alliance, Nebr., that differ markedly in climate. Forage yield and forage quality as measured by in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and percent protein were determined in both locations in 1980 and 1981. In the combined analyses over years and locations, there were significant differences among strains or genotypes and locations for first-harvest forage yield, IVDMD, and protein. Strain X location interaction effects were significant only for first-harvest forage yield and for this trait its variance component was only 0.3 as large as the variance component for strains. Strain X year interaction effects were not significant. Spearmen correlations, used to show relative ranking of the strains at the two locations, were moderate and positive for all first-cut traits. The results indicate that existing genetic variability in forage yield and quality should permit the development of improved crested wheatgrasses and that at least in the initial stages of a breeding program, selection for these traits could be done in a single location and year

Genotype and Genotype X Environment Interaction Effects on Forage Yield and Quality of Crested Wheatgrasses

Genotype, environment, and genotype X environment interaction effects for forage yield and quality of the crested wheatgrasses (Agropyron cristatum) and (A. desertorum) were studied using an array of 42 crested wheatgrass introductions, experimental lines, and released cultivars that were selected to be representative of the mix of germplasm available to a breeder. They were grown in two environments, Lincoln and Alliance, Nebr., that differ markedly in climate. Forage yield and forage quality as measured by in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and percent protein were determined in both locations in 1980 and 1981. In the combined analyses over years and locations, there were significant differences among strains or genotypes and locations for first-harvest forage yield, IVDMD, and protein. Strain X location interaction effects were significant only for first-harvest forage yield and for this trait its variance component was only 0.3 as large as the variance component for strains. Strain X year interaction effects were not significant. Spearmen correlations, used to show relative ranking of the strains at the two locations, were moderate and positive for all first-cut traits. The results indicate that existing genetic variability in forage yield and quality should permit the development of improved crested wheatgrasses and that at least in the initial stages of a breeding program, selection for these traits could be done in a single location and year