A re-analysis of the isolated black hole candidate OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191

There are expected to be $\sim 10^8$ isolated black holes (BHs) in the Milky Way. OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 (OB110462) is the only such BH with a mass measurement to date. However, its mass is disputed: Lam et al. (2022a,b) measured a lower mass of $1.6 - 4.4 M_\odot$, while Sahu et al. (2022); Mr\'{o}z et al. (2022) measured a higher mass of $5.8 - 8.7 M_\odot$. We re-analyze OB110462, including new data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and re-reduced Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) photometry. We also re-reduce and re-analyze the HST dataset with newly available software. We find significantly different ($\sim 1$ mas) HST astrometry than Lam et al. (2022a,b) in the de-magnified epochs due to the amount of positional bias induced by a bright star $\sim$0.4 arcsec from OB110462. After modeling the updated photometric and astrometric datasets, we find the lens of OB110462 is a $6.0^{+1.2}_{-1.0} M_\odot$ BH. Future observations with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which will have an astrometric precision comparable or better to HST but a field of view $100\times$ larger, will be able to measure hundreds of isolated BH masses via microlensing. This will enable the measurement of the BH mass distribution and improve understanding of massive stellar evolution and BH formation channels.Comment: 23 pages, 18 figures, 8 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ on 2 Aug 2023 [Same as v1, just fixed typo in email address

Natal Kicks from the Galactic Center and Implications on their Environment and the Roman Space Telescope

Most galaxies, including the Milky Way, harbor a central supermassive black hole (SMBH) weighing millions to billions of solar masses. Surrounding these SMBHs are dense regions of stars and stellar remnants, such as neutron stars and black holes. Neutron stars and possibly black holes receive large natal kicks at birth on the order of hundreds of km s$^{-1}$. The natal kicks that occur in the vicinity of an SMBH may redistribute the orbital configuration of the compact objects and alter their underlying density distribution. We model the effects of natal kicks on a Galactic Center (GC) population of massive stars and stellar binaries with different initial density distributions. Using observational constraints from stellar orbits near the GC, we place an upper limit on the steepness of the initial stellar profile and find it to be core-like. In addition, we predict that $30-70 \%$ of compact objects become unbound from the SMBH due to their kicks and will migrate throughout the galaxy. Different black hole kick prescriptions lead to distinct spatial and kinematic distributions. We suggest that the Roman Space Telescope may be able to distinguish between these distributions and thus be able to differentiate natal kick mechanisms.Comment: 18 pages, 11 Figure

Microlensing Events in Five Years of Photometry from the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing has a unique advantage for detecting dark objects in the Milky Way, such as free floating planets, neutron stars, and stellar-mass black holes. Most microlensing surveys focus towards the Galactic bulge, where higher stellar density leads to a higher event rate. However, microlensing events in the Galactic plane are closer, and take place over longer timescales. This enables a better measurement of the microlensing parallax, which serves as an independent constraint on the mass of the dark lens. In this work, we systematically searched for microlensing events in Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Data Release 17 from 2018--2023 in the Galactic plane region $|b| < 20^\circ$. We find 124 high-confidence microlensing events and 54 possible events. In the event selection, we use the efficient \texttt{EventFinder} algorithm to detect microlensing signals, which could be used for large datasets such as future ZTF data releases or data from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). With detection efficiencies of ZTF fields from catalog-level simulations, we calculate the mean Einstein timescale to be $\langle t_\mathrm{E}\rangle = 51.7 \pm 3.3$ days, smaller than previous results of the Galactic plane to within 1.5-$\sigma$. We calculate optical depths and event rates, which we interpret with caution due to the use of visual inspection in creating our final sample. With two years of additional ZTF data in DR17, we have more than doubled the amount of microlensing events (60) found in the three-year DR5 search and found events with longer Einstein timescales than before.Comment: 9 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Ap

Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky every few nights including the Galactic plane. ZTF observes $\sim10^9$ stars in g-band and r-band and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. We predict that ZTF will observe $\sim$1100 microlensing events in three years of observing within $10^\circ$ degrees latitude of the Galactic plane, with $\sim$500 events in the outer Galaxy ($\ell \geq 10^\circ$). This yield increases to $\sim$1400 ($\sim$800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, $\sim$1800 ($\sim$900) events if ZTF observes for a total of five years, and $\sim$2400 ($\sim$1300) events for a five year survey with post-processing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, 5 tables, accepted to ApJ (6/4/2020), microlensing simulation catalogs available at https://portal.nersc.gov/project/uLens/Galactic_Microlensing_Distribution

The Impact of Initial-Final Mass Relations on Black Hole Microlensing

Uncertainty in the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) has long been a problem in understanding the final stages of massive star evolution. One of the major challenges of constraining the IFMR is the difficulty of measuring the mass of non-luminous remnant objects (i.e. neutron stars and black holes). Gravitational wave detectors have opened the possibility of finding large numbers of compact objects in other galaxies, but all in merging binary systems. Gravitational lensing experiments using astrometry and photometry are capable of finding compact objects, both isolated and in binaries, in the Milky Way. In this work we improve the PopSyCLE microlensing simulation code in order to explore the possibility of constraining the IFMR using the Milky Way microlensing population. We predict that the Roman Space Telescope's microlensing survey will likely be able to distinguish different IFMRs based on the differences at the long end of the Einstein crossing time distribution and the small end of the microlensing parallax distribution, assuming the small ($\pi_E \lesssim 0.02$) microlensing parallaxes characteristic of black hole lenses are able to be measured accurately. We emphasize that future microlensing surveys need to be capable of characterizing events with small microlensing parallaxes in order to place the most meaningful constraints on the IFMR.Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures Accepted to Ap

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens-class of any single event. We investigate this method's effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of $30 M_{\odot}$. On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ${\approx}25$\%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.Comment: 31 pages, 18 figures, submitted to AA

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and IV

Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year. Surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is studying the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time distribution ($t_E$). However, systematics in individual light curves as well as over-simplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian Process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the timescale distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and previous analyses over-estimated the number of long timescale ($t_E>100$ days) events due to their over simplistic models ignoring parallax effects and stellar variability. We use our fits to identify hundreds of events that are likely black holes.Comment: Submitted version, in review, 33 pages, 18 figures, MCMC posterior samples available by publisher after acceptanc

Roman CCS White Paper: Characterizing the Galactic population of isolated black holes

Although there are estimated to be 100 million isolated black holes (BHs) in the Milky Way, only one has been found so far, resulting in significant uncertainty about their properties. The Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey provides the only opportunity in the coming decades to grow this catalog by order(s) of magnitude. This can be achieved if 1) Roman's astrometric potential is fully realized in the observation strategy and software pipelines, 2) Roman's observational gaps of the Bulge are minimized, and 3) observations with ground-based facilities are taken of the Bulge to fill in gaps during non-Bulge seasons. A large sample of isolated BHs will enable a broad range of astrophysical questions to be answered, such as massive stellar evolution, origin of gravitational wave sources, supernova physics, and the growth of supermassive BHs, maximizing Roman's scientific return.Comment: 20 pages. Submitted in response to Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope white paper call: https://roman.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/ccs_white_papers.htm