HITS: Hurricane Intensity and Track Simulator with North Atlantic Ocean Applications for Risk Assessment

A nonparametric stochastic model is developed and tested for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks. Tropical cyclone tracks demonstrate continuity and memory over many time and space steps. Clusters of tracks can be coherent, and the separation between clusters may be marked by geographical locations where groups of tracks diverge as a result of the physics of the underlying process. Consequently, their evolution may be non-Markovian. Markovian simulation models, as are often used, may produce tracks that potentially diverge or lose memory quicker than happens in nature. This is addressed here through a model that simulates tracks by randomly sampling track segments of varying length, selected from historical tracks. For performance evaluation, a spatial grid is imposed on the domain of interest. For each grid box, long-term tropical cyclone risk is assessed through the annual probability distributions of the number of storm hours, landfalls, winds, and other statistics. Total storm length is determined at birth by local distribution, and movement to other tropical cyclone segments by distance to neighbor tracks, comparative vector, and age of track. The model is also applied to the conditional simulation of hurricane tracks from specific positions for hurricanes that were not included in the model fitting so as to see whether the probabilistic coverage intervals properly cover the subsequent track. Consequently, tests of both the long-term probability distributions of hurricane landfall and of event simulations from the model are provided

Elucidating the Antimycobacterial Mechanism of Action of Decoquinate Derivative RMB041 Using Metabolomics

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), still remains one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious agent worldwide. The high prevalence of this disease is mostly ascribed to the rapid development of drug resistance to the current anti-TB drugs, exacerbated by lack of patient adherence due to drug toxicity. The aforementioned highlights the urgent need for new anti-TB compounds with different antimycobacterial mechanisms of action to those currently being used. An N-alkyl quinolone; decoquinate derivative RMB041, has recently shown promising antimicrobial activity against Mtb, while also exhibiting low cytotoxicity and excellent pharmacokinetic characteristics. Its exact mechanism of action, however, is still unknown. Considering this, we used GCxGC-TOFMS and well described metabolomic approaches to analyze and compare the metabolic alterations of Mtb treated with decoquinate derivative RMB041 by comparison to non-treated Mtb controls. The most significantly altered pathways in Mtb treated with this drug include fatty acid metabolism, amino acid metabolism, glycerol metabolism, and the urea cycle. These changes support previous findings suggesting this drug acts primarily on the cell wall and secondarily on the DNA metabolism of Mtb. Additionally, we identified metabolic changes suggesting inhibition of protein synthesis and a state of dormancy

Foreign Direct Investments in Business Services: Transforming the Visegrád Four Region into a Knowledge-based Economy?

Foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the service sector are widely attributed an important role in bringing more skill-intensive activities into the Visegrad Four (V4). This region—comprising Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia—relied heavily on FDIs in manufacturing, which was often found to generate activities with limited skill content. This contribution deconstructs the chaotic concept of “business services” by analysing the actual nature of service sector activities outsourced and offshored to the V4. Using the knowledge-based economy (KBE) as a benchmark, the paper assesses the potential of service sector outsourcing in contributing to regional competitiveness by increasing the innovative capacity. It also discusses the role of state policies towards service sector FDI (SFDI). The analysis combines data obtained from case studies undertaken in service sector outsourcing projects in V4 countries. Moreover, it draws on interviews with senior employees of investment promotion agencies and publicly available data and statistics on activities within the service sector in the region. It argues that the recent inward investments in business services in the V4 mainly utilize existing local human capital resources, and their contribution to the development of the KBE is limited to employment creation and demand for skilled labour

Treatment compliance and effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural intervention for low back pain : a complier average causal effect approach to the BeST data set

Background: Group cognitive behavioural intervention (CBI) is effective in reducing low-back pain and disability in comparison to advice in primary care. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the impact of compliance on estimates of treatment effect and to identify factors associated with compliance. Methods: In this multicentre trial, 701 adults with troublesome sub-acute or chronic low-back pain were recruited from 56 general practices. Participants were randomised to advice (control n = 233) or advice plus CBI (n = 468). Compliance was specified a priori as attending a minimum of three group sessions and the individual assessment. We estimated the complier average causal effect (CACE) of treatment. Results: Comparison of the CACE estimate of the mean treatment difference to the intention-to-treat (ITT) estimate at 12 months showed a greater benefit of CBI amongst participants compliant with treatment on the Roland Morris Questionnaire (CACE: 1.6 points, 95% CI 0.51 to 2.74; ITT: 1.3 points, 95% CI 0.55 to 2.07), the Modified Von Korff disability score (CACE: 12.1 points, 95% CI 6.07 to 18.17; ITT: 8.6 points, 95% CI 4.58 to 12.64) and the Modified von Korff pain score (CACE: 10.4 points, 95% CI 4.64 to 16.10; ITT: 7.0 points, 95% CI 3.26 to 10.74). People who were non-compliant were younger and had higher pain scores at randomisation. Conclusions: Treatment compliance is important in the effectiveness of group CBI. Younger people and those with more pain are at greater risk of non-compliance

Transcatheter and surgical intervention for secondary mitral regurgitation

Objectives: This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:. To assess the effects in secondary mitral regurgitation of:. Surgical mitral valve intervention and coronary artery bypass graft versus coronary artery bypass graft alone; and Transcatheter mitral valve intervention and medical therapy versus medical therapy alone

Elucidating the Antimycobacterial Mechanism of Action of Ciprofloxacin Using Metabolomics

Abstract: In the interest of developing more effective and safer anti-tuberculosis drugs, we used a GCxGC-TOF-MS metabolomics research approach to investigate and compare the metabolic profiles of Mtb in the presence and absence of ciprofloxacin. The metabolites that best describe the differences between the compared groups were identified as markers characterizing the changes induced by ciprofloxacin. Malic acid was ranked as the most significantly altered metabolite marker induced by ciprofloxacin, indicative of an inhibition of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) and glyoxylate cycle of Mtb. The altered fatty acid, myo-inositol, and triacylglycerol metabolism seen in this group supports previous observations of ciprofloxacin action on the Mtb cell wall. Furthermore, the altered pentose phosphate intermediates, glycerol metabolism markers, glucose accumulation, as well as the reduction in the glucogenic amino acids specifically, indicate a flux toward DNA (as well as cell wall) repair, also supporting previous findings of DNA damage caused by ciprofloxacin. This study further provides insights useful for designing network whole-system strategies for the identification of possible modes of action of various drugs and possibly adaptations by Mtb resulting in resistanc

Universities and community-based research in developing countries: community voice and educational provision in rural Tanzania

The main focus of recent research on the community engagement role of universities has been in developed countries, generally in towns and cities and usually conducted from the perspectives of universities rather than the communities with which they engage. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the community engagement role of universities in the rural areas of developing countries, and its potential for strengthening the voice of rural communities. The particular focus is on the provision of primary and secondary education. The paper is based on the assumption that in order for community members to have both the capacity and the confidence to engage in political discourse for improving educational capacity and quality, they need the opportunity to become involved and well-versed in the options available, beyond their own experience. Particular attention is given in the paper to community-based research (CBR). CBR is explored from the perspectives of community members and local leaders in the government-community partnerships which have responsibility for the provision of primary and secondary education in rural Tanzania. The historical and policy background of the partnerships, together with findings from two case studies, provide the context for the paper

Obesity and diabetes are major risk factors for epicardial adipose tissue inflammation

BACKGROUND: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) directly overlies the myocardium, with changes in its morphology and volume associated with myriad cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. However, EAT’s immune structure and cellular characterization remain incompletely described. We aimed to define the immune phenotype of EAT in humans and compare such profiles across lean, obese, and diabetic patients. METHODS: We recruited 152 patients undergoing open-chest coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valve repair/replacement (VR) surgery, or combined CABG/VR. Patients’ clinical and biochemical data and EAT, subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and preoperative blood samples were collected. Immune cell profiling was evaluated by flow cytometry and complemented by gene expression studies of immune mediators. Bulk RNA-Seq was performed in EAT across metabolic profiles to assess whole-transcriptome changes observed in lean, obese, and diabetic groups. RESULTS: Flow cytometry analysis demonstrated EAT was highly enriched in adaptive immune (T and B) cells. Although overweight/obese and diabetic patients had similar EAT cellular profiles to lean control patients, the EAT exhibited significantly (P ≤ 0.01) raised expression of immune mediators, including IL-1, IL-6, TNF-α, and IFN-γ. These changes were not observed in SAT or blood. Neither underlying coronary artery disease nor the presence of hypertension significantly altered the immune profiles observed. Bulk RNA-Seq demonstrated significant alterations in metabolic and inflammatory pathways in the EAT of overweight/obese patients compared with lean controls. CONCLUSION: Adaptive immune cells are the predominant immune cell constituent in human EAT and SAT. The presence of underlying cardiometabolic conditions, specifically obesity and diabetes, rather than cardiac disease phenotype appears to alter the inflammatory profile of EAT. Obese states markedly alter EAT metabolic and inflammatory signaling genes, underlining the impact of obesity on the EAT transcriptome profile. FUNDING: Barts Charity MGU0413, Abbott, Medical Research Council MR/T008059/1, and British Heart Foundation FS/13/49/30421 and PG/16/79/32419