The effect of depth‐duration‐frequency model recalibration on rainfall return period estimates

In November 2009 and December 2015, two record‐breaking 24‐hr rainfalls occurred in Cumbria, UK, significantly changing the perception of flood risk for local communities. FEH13, the current UK rainfall depth‐duration‐frequency (DDF) model, estimated return periods of around 1,000 years for both events. The previous model, FEH99, received criticism from panel engineers responsible for making technical safety decisions relating to reservoirs for appearing to estimate relatively short return periods for extreme events. Although FEH13 is more consistent with current probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates, there is high uncertainty in both models due to the limited number of extremes captured by UK rain gauges. Furthermore, neither model included the 2009 or 2015 event in its calibration. Here, we re‐calibrate FEH13 using additional gauged rainfall data collected in Cumbria during 2006–2016, including the record‐breaking 2009 and 2015 storms. Using the updated calibration data set reduces the estimated return periods of the 2009 and 2015 events to approximately 140 years each. This case study illustrates the considerable uncertainty in short‐sample records, demonstrates the importance of maximising the quantity of relevant calibration data, shows that perception of risk depends upon the method and data used, and illustrates the difficulty of separating trends and natural variability

Lake District National Park management plan Draft for consultation

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:99/20295 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Bassenthwaite Lake National Nature Reserve management plan

Available from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:99/39496 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreSIGLEGBUnited Kingdo

Interim policy statements 1. Housing 2. Employment 3. Conserving the character of settlements 4. Conservation and the use of traditional buildings

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:q97/20391 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Lake District National Park Authority GIS Development Project Final report to the Countryside Commission

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:q96/30072 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Lake District National Park Commons Project 1988 - 1990 A report to the Lake District Special Planning Board and the Countryside Commission

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:q97/05888 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Planning Cumbria Cumbria and Lake District Joint Structure Plan, 2001-2016 deposit plan, May 2003

Includes bibliographical references. Title from cover. Co-published by: Lake District National Park AuthoritySIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:m03/28270 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

The Impacts of Knowledge of the Past on Preferences for Future Landscape Change

In this paper, we investigate whether people's knowledge of the past influences their preferences and values towards future landscape change. “Knowledge of the past” is one aspect of the information set held by individuals, and a well-established finding in economics is that changes in information can change preferences and values. The particular aspects of knowledge of the past we work with here are: (i) awareness of past landuse, as represented by woodland cover and (ii) awareness of differing and sometimes contradictory literary impressions of this past landscape. The case studies used here relate to prospective changes in woodland cover in two UK national parks, the Lake District and the Trossachs. We find that people who are made aware that the landscape has changed over time, or that perceptions of the landscape have changed over time, are more likely to favour changes to the current landscape (are less likely to favour the status quo). Knowledge of the past therefore seems to have an impact on preferences for future landscapes. We also investigate the impacts on preferences of how “special”, how “wild” and how “worked in” people perceive the landscapes of these two national parks to be