Super Typhoon Bopha and the Mayo River Debris-Flow Disaster, Mindanao, Philippines, December 2012

Category 5 (C5) Super Typhoon Bopha, the world’s worst storm of 2012, formed abnormally close to the West Pacific Equator, and Bopha’s Mindanao landfall has the record equatorial proximity for C5 storms. Bopha generated a debris flow that buried 500 ha of New Bataan municipality and killed 566 people. New Bataan, established in 1968, had never experienced super typhoons and debris flows. We describe the respective histories of New Bataan and Super Typhoon Bopha; debris flows; and how population growth and unwise settlement practices contribute to Philippine “natural” disasters. The historical record of Mindanao tropical cyclones yields clues regarding how climate change may be exacerbating near-equatorial vulnerability to typhoons. Existing models of future typhoon behavior do not apply well to Mindanao because they evaluate only the tropical cyclones that occur during the main June–October typhoon season, and most Mindanao tropical cyclones occur in the off season. The models also ignore tropical depressions, the most frequent—and commonly lethal—Mindanao cyclones. Including these in annual tallies of Mindanao cyclones up to early 2018 reveals a pronounced and accelerating increase since 1990. Mindanao is susceptible to other natural hazards, including other consequences of climate change and volcanic activity

Volcanoes magnify Metro Manila's southwest monsoon rains and lethal floods

Many volcanoes worldwide are located near populated cities that experience monsoon seasons, characterised by shifting winds each year. Because of the severity of flood impact to large populations, it is worthy of investigation in the Philippines and elsewhere to better understand the phenomenon for possible hazard mitigating solutions, if any. During the monsoon season, the change in flow direction of winds brings moist warm air to cross the mountains and volcanoes in western Philippines and cause lift into the atmosphere, which normally leads to heavy rains and floods. Heavy southwest monsoon rains from 18-21 August 2013 flooded Metro Manila (population of 12 million) and its suburbs paralyzing the nation’s capital for an entire week. Called the 2013 Habagat event, it was a repeat of the 2012 Habagat or extreme southwest monsoon weather from 6-9 August, which delivered record rains in the mega city. In both the 2012 and 2013 Habagat events, cyclones, the usual suspects for the delivery of heavy rains, were passing northeast of the Philippine archipelago, respectively, and enhanced the southwest monsoon. Analysis of Doppler data, rainfall measurements, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations show that two large stratovolcanoes, Natib and Mariveles, across from Manila Bay and approximately 70 km west of Metro Manila, played a substantial role in delivering extreme rains and consequent floods to Metro Manila. The study highlights how volcanoes, with their shape and height create an orographic effect and dispersive tail of rain clouds which constitutes a significant flood hazard to large communities like Metro Manila