Application of Bootstrap Methods in Investigation of Size of the Granger Causality Test for Integrated VAR Systems

This paper examines the size performance of the Toda-Yamamoto test for Granger causality in the case of trivariate integrated and cointegrated VAR systems. The standard asymptotic distribution theory and the residual-based bootstrap approach are applied. A variety of types of distribution of error term is considered. The impact of misspecification of initial parameters as well as the influence of an increase in sample size and number of bootstrap replications on size performance of Toda-Yamamoto test statistics is also examined. The results of the conducted simulation study confirm that standard asymptotic distribution theory may often cause significant over-rejection. Application of bootstrap methods usually leads to improvement of size performance of the Toda-Yamamoto test. However, in some cases the considered bootstrap method also leads to serious size distortion and performs worse than the traditional approach based on ÷2 distribution.bootstrap methods, simulation, Granger causality, bootstrap methods, simulation, Granger causality, VAR models models

Linear versus nonlinear causalityfor dax companies

This study provides empirical evidence of the joint dynamics between stock returns and trading volume using stock data for DAX companies. Our research confirms the hypothesis that traditional linear causality tests often fail to detect some kinds of nonlinear relations, while nonlinear tests do not. In many cases, the test results obtained by use of empirical data and simulation confirm a bidirectional causal relationship, while linear tests did not detect such causality at all.DAX companies, stock returns, trading volume, linear and nonlinear causality, simulation

The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland

Abstract This paper investigates the association between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis makes use of linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and that of the contrasting Keynesian theory.We employ aggregate and disaggregate data with the sub-categories of most important budgetary expenditure, including health care and social security, education and science, national defence and public security expenditure and government administration expenditure for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. This causality analysis indicates that total relation between budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. The results of our computations have important policy implications. In case of Poland the health care expenditure was found to be as important for economic growth as expenditures on education and science. Furthermore, in order to stimulate economic growth, Polish government should consider reallocating some of national defence, public security and government administration expenditure to health care, social security, education and science expenditure.Government expenditure · Linear and nonlinear causality · Bootstrap techniques

Testing for the economic and environmental impacts of EU Emissions Trading System: A panel GMM approach

The COVID‑19 pandemic has had a great impact on the economies of the EU, also with regard to the future of EU climate policy. The plan to rebuild and support the EU economy seems to place less emphasis on environmental issues as the main focus has been shifted to a quick economic recovery. One of the issues discussed in this context is the continued operation of the EU ETS. From this perspective, empirical research devoted to a thorough analysis of the impact of the EU ETS is of particular importance. At the same time, the current economic literature lacks any econometric analyzes devoted to the issues in question that would use detailed and reliable databases on EU ETS like the one provided by the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change. The aim of this paper is to make a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of the EU ETS in terms of reducing the actual emissions while preserving the economic growth of EU member states. The extensive empirical analysis is focused on examining the issues in question for different phases of the EU ETS and various groups of EU economies that vary in terms of economic development and the overall air pollutant emission

The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy

The aim of this contribution is an investigation of causal interdependences between electricity consumption and GDP in Poland. Our research was conducted for total electricity consumption as well as for the industrial consumption of electricity. In order to reflect the causality between GDP and electricity consumption properly we performed our investigations in a threedimensional framework with employment chosen as an additional variable. We used reliable quarterly data from the period Q1 2000 - Q4 2009. In order to check the stability of the causalities the investigations were performed on two samples: a full sample and a pre-crisis (i.e. Q1 2000 - Q3 2008) subsample. We applied both traditional methods as well as some recently developed econometric tools. We found feedback between total electricity consumption and GDP as well as between total electricity consumption and employment. We also found unidirectional causality running from industrial electricity consumption to employment and no direct causal links between industrial electricity consumption and GDP. In addition, all these findings were, in general, not seriously affected by the financial and economic crisis of 2008. A significant exception is the causal effect of industrial electricity consumption on employment, which was more pronounced after the crisis of 2008

The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy

The aim of this contribution is an investigation of causal interdependences between electricity consumption and GDP in Poland. Our research was conducted for total electricity consumption as well as for the industrial consumption of electricity. In order to reflect the causality between GDP and electricity consumption properly we performed our investigations in a threedimensional framework with employment chosen as an additional variable. We used reliable quarterly data from the period Q1 2000 - Q4 2009. In order to check the stability of the causalities the investigations were performed on two samples: a full sample and a pre-crisis (i.e. Q1 2000 - Q3 2008) subsample. We applied both traditional methods as well as some recently developed econometric tools. We found feedback between total electricity consumption and GDP as well as between total electricity consumption and employment. We also found unidirectional causality running from industrial electricity consumption to employment and no direct causal links between industrial electricity consumption and GDP. In addition, all these findings were, in general, not seriously affected by the financial and economic crisis of 2008. A significant exception is the causal effect of industrial electricity consumption on employment, which was more pronounced after the crisis of 2008

The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland

Abstract This paper investigates the association between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis makes use of linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and that of the contrasting Keynesian theory.We employ aggregate and disaggregate data with the sub-categories of most important budgetary expenditure, including health care and social security, education and science, national defence and public security expenditure and government administration expenditure for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. This causality analysis indicates that total relation between budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. The results of our computations have important policy implications. In case of Poland the health care expenditure was found to be as important for economic growth as expenditures on education and science. Furthermore, in order to stimulate economic growth, Polish government should consider reallocating some of national defence, public security and government administration expenditure to health care, social security, education and science expenditure

The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland

Abstract This paper investigates the association between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis makes use of linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and that of the contrasting Keynesian theory.We employ aggregate and disaggregate data with the sub-categories of most important budgetary expenditure, including health care and social security, education and science, national defence and public security expenditure and government administration expenditure for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. This causality analysis indicates that total relation between budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. The results of our computations have important policy implications. In case of Poland the health care expenditure was found to be as important for economic growth as expenditures on education and science. Furthermore, in order to stimulate economic growth, Polish government should consider reallocating some of national defence, public security and government administration expenditure to health care, social security, education and science expenditure

MiRNAs from serum-derived extracellular vesicles as biomarkers for uveal melanoma progression

Uveal melanoma (UM) is a rare type of malignancy that originates from melanocytes located in the choroid, iris and the ciliary body of the eye. UM has a very high mortality upon metastatic spread to the liver, the prime target organ for UM metastasis. The lack of effective therapies for advanced stages of the disease aggravate the prognosis further. Moreover, biomarkers for early detection and progression of UM, especially the molecular traits governing the development of metastasis, are still not available in clinical practice. One extensively studied components of liquid biopsies are exosomes, a subtype of extracellular vesicle. Due to their unique molecular cargo, they could be used as carriers of early markers of cancer development and progression. For characterisation of the miRNA profiles present in circulating serum-derived exosomes of patients with diagnosed primary and metastatic UM, we have analysed the miRNA cargos using next-generation sequencing followed by RT-qPCR validation in a cohort of patients (control n=20; primary n=9; metastatic n=11). Nine miRNAs clearly differentiating these patient groups have been established. We show that hsa-miR-223 and hsa-miR-203a are the most promising biomarker candidates, allowing categorization of patients into local and advanced UM. Additionally, the comparison of miRNA expression levels in exosomes derived from UM patients with those derived from healthy donors, revealed that hsa-miR-144 has the potential to be used as an early marker for presence of UM. Taken together, this pilot study reveals that miRNAs extracted from circulating exosomes could be exploited as potential biomarkers in UM diagnosis and, more importantly, for indicating metastatic spread

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TRANSITION: LESSONS FROM THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS IN CEE

This paper examines the role of export diversification for economic growth in CEE transition economies. The results prove that before the outbreak of 2008 financial crisis export specialization rather than diversification was an important growth factor, especially in those countries which followed more specialized export patterns. However, after the outbreak of the crisis the direction of this causal link changed essentially. All three main aspects of export diversification turned out to play a significant role in reducing the growth slowdown effects of the 2008 financial crisis