ePCR : an R-package for survival and time-to-event prediction in advanced prostate cancer, applied to real-world patient cohorts

Motivation: Prognostic models are widely used in clinical decision-making, such as risk stratification and tailoring treatment strategies, with the aim to improve patient outcomes while reducing overall healthcare costs. While prognostic models have been adopted into clinical use, benchmarking their performance has been difficult due to lack of open clinical datasets. The recent DREAM 9.5 Prostate Cancer Challenge carried out an extensive benchmarking of prognostic models for metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC), based on multiple cohorts of open clinical trial data. Results: We make available an open-source implementation of the top-performing model, ePCR, along with an extended toolbox for its further re-use and development, and demonstrate how to best apply the implemented model to real-world data cohorts of advanced prostate cancer patients.Peer reviewe

A practical comparison of methods for detecting transcription factor binding sites in ChIP-seq experiments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chromatin immunoprecipitation coupled with massively parallel sequencing (ChIP-seq) is increasingly being applied to study transcriptional regulation on a genome-wide scale. While numerous algorithms have recently been proposed for analysing the large ChIP-seq datasets, their relative merits and potential limitations remain unclear in practical applications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The present study compares the state-of-the-art algorithms for detecting transcription factor binding sites in four diverse ChIP-seq datasets under a variety of practical research settings. First, we demonstrate how the biological conclusions may change dramatically when the different algorithms are applied. The reproducibility across biological replicates is then investigated as an internal validation of the detections. Finally, the predicted binding sites with each method are compared to high-scoring binding motifs as well as binding regions confirmed in independent qPCR experiments.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In general, our results indicate that the optimal choice of the computational approach depends heavily on the dataset under analysis. In addition to revealing valuable information to the users of this technology about the characteristics of the binding site detection approaches, the systematic evaluation framework provides also a useful reference to the developers of improved algorithms for ChIP-seq data.</p

Oscar : Optimal subset cardinality regression using the L0-pseudonorm with applications to prognostic modelling of prostate cancer

Author summaryFeature subset selection has become a crucial part of building biomedical models, due to the abundance of available predictors in many applications, yet there remains an uncertainty of their importance and generalization ability. Regularized regression methods have become popular approaches to tackle this challenge by balancing the model goodness-of-fit against the increasing complexity of the model in terms of coefficients that deviate from zero. Regularization norms are pivotal in formulating the model complexity, and currently L-1-norm (LASSO), L-2-norm (Ridge Regression) and their hybrid (Elastic Net) dominate the field. In this paper, we present a novel methodology that is based on the L-0-pseudonorm, also known as the best subset selection, which has largely gone overlooked due to its challenging discrete nature. Our methodology makes use of a continuous transformation of the discrete optimization problem, and provides effective solvers implemented in a user friendly R software package. We exemplify the use of oscar-package in the context of prostate cancer prognostic prediction using both real-world hospital registry and clinical cohort data. By benchmarking the methodology against existing regularization methods, we illustrate the advantages of the L-0-pseudonorm for better clinical applicability, selection of grouped features, and demonstrate its applicability in high-dimensional transcriptomics datasets.In many real-world applications, such as those based on electronic health records, prognostic prediction of patient survival is based on heterogeneous sets of clinical laboratory measurements. To address the trade-off between the predictive accuracy of a prognostic model and the costs related to its clinical implementation, we propose an optimized L-0-pseudonorm approach to learn sparse solutions in multivariable regression. The model sparsity is maintained by restricting the number of nonzero coefficients in the model with a cardinality constraint, which makes the optimization problem NP-hard. In addition, we generalize the cardinality constraint for grouped feature selection, which makes it possible to identify key sets of predictors that may be measured together in a kit in clinical practice. We demonstrate the operation of our cardinality constraint-based feature subset selection method, named OSCAR, in the context of prognostic prediction of prostate cancer patients, where it enables one to determine the key explanatory predictors at different levels of model sparsity. We further explore how the model sparsity affects the model accuracy and implementation cost. Lastly, we demonstrate generalization of the presented methodology to high-dimensional transcriptomics data.Peer reviewe

Cost-effective survival prediction for patients with advanced prostate cancer using clinical trial and real-world hospital registry datasets

Introduction Predictive survival modeling offers systematic tools for clinical decision-making and individualized tailoring of treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes while reducing overall healthcare costs. In 2015, a number of machine learning and statistical models were benchmarked in the DREAM 9.5 Prostate Cancer Challenge, based on open clinical trial data for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, applying these models into clinical practice poses a practical challenge due to the inclusion of a large number of model variables, some of which are not routinely monitored or are expensive to measure. Objectives To develop cost-specified variable selection algorithms for constructing cost-effective prognostic models of overall survival that still preserve sufficient model performance for clinical decision making. Methods Penalized Cox regression models were used for the survival prediction. For the variable selection, we implemented two algorithms: (i) LASSO regularization approach; and (ii) a greedy cost-specified variable selection algorithm. The models were compared in three cohorts of mCRPC patients from randomized clinical trials (RCT), as well as in a real-world cohort (RWC) of advanced prostate cancer patients treated at the Turku University Hospital. Hospital laboratory expenses were utilized as a reference for computing the costs of introducing new variables into the models. Results Compared to measuring the full set of clinical variables, economic costs could be reduced by half without a significant loss of model performance. The greedy algorithm outperformed the LASSO-based variable selection with the lowest tested budgets. The overall top performance was higher with the LASSO algorithm. Conclusion The cost-specified variable selection offers significant budget optimization capability for the real-world survival prediction without compromising the predictive power of the model.Peer reviewe

Androgen receptor signaling in prostate cancer genomic subtypes

While many prostate cancer (PCa) cases remain indolent and treatable, others are aggressive and progress to the metastatic stage where there are limited curative therapies. Androgen receptor (AR) signaling remains an important pathway for proliferative and survival programs in PCa, making disruption of AR signaling a viable therapy option. However, most patients develop resistance to AR-targeted therapies or inherently never respond. The field has turned to PCa genomics to aid in stratifying high risk patients, and to better understand the mechanisms driving aggressive PCa and therapy resistance. While alterations to the AR gene itself occur at later stages, genomic changes at the primary stage can affect the AR axis and impact response to AR-directed therapies. Here, we review common genomic alterations in primary PCa and their influence on AR function and activity. Through a meta-analysis of multiple independent primary PCa databases, we also identified subtypes of significantly co-occurring alterations and examined their combinatorial effects on the AR axis. Further, we discussed the subsequent implications for response to AR-targeted therapies and other treatments. We identified multiple primary PCa genomic subtypes, and given their differing effects on AR activity, patient tumor genetics may be an important stratifying factor for AR therapy resistance.</p

Optimized detection of transcription factor-binding sites in ChIP-seq experiments

Peer reviewe

Combined ASRGL1 and p53 immunohistochemistry as an independent predictor of survival in endometrioid endometrial carcinoma

Objective. In clinical practise, prognostication of endometrial cancer is based on clinicopathological risk factors. The use of immunohistochemistry-based markers as prognostic tools is generally not recommended and a systematic analysis of their utility as a panel is lacking. We evaluated whether an immunohistochemical marker panel could reliably assess endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC) outcome independent of clinicopathological information. Methods. A cohort of 306 EEC specimens was profiled using tissue microarray (TMA). Cost- and time-efficient immunohistochemical analysis of well-established tissue biomarkers (ER, PR, HER2, Ki-67, MLH1 and p53) and two new biomarkers (L1CAM and ASRGL1) was carried out. Statistical modelling with embedded variable selection was applied on the staining results to identify minimal prognostic panels with maximal prognostic accuracy without compromising generalizability. Results. A panel including p53 and ASRGL1 immunohistochemistry was identified as the most accurate predictor of relapse-free and disease-specific survival. Within this panel, patients were allocated into high- (5.9%), intermediate- (295%) and low- (64.6%) risk groups where high-risk patients had a 30-fold risk (P <0.001) of dying of EEC compared to the low-risk group. Conclusions. P53 and ASRGL1 immunoprofiling stratifies EEC patients into three risk groups with significantly different outcomes. This simple and easily applicable panel could provide a useful tool in EEC risk stratification and guiding the allocation of treatment modalities. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Longitudinal modeling of ultrasensitive and traditional prostate-specific antigen and prediction of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

Ultrasensitive prostate-specific antigen (u-PSA) remains controversial for follow-up after radical prostatectomy (RP). The aim of this study was to model PSA doubling times (PSADT) for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) and to capture possible discrepancies between u-PSA and traditional PSA (t-PSA) by utilizing advanced statistical modeling. 555 RP patients without neoadjuvant/adjuvant androgen deprivation from the Turku University Hospital were included in the study. BCR was defined as two consecutive PSA values > 0.2 ng/mL and the PSA measurements were log(2)-transformed. One third of the data was reserved for independent validation. Models were first fitted to the post-surgery PSA measurements using cross-validation. Major trends were then captured using linear mixed-effect models and a predictive generalized linear model effectively identified early trends connected to BCR. The model generalized for BCR prediction to the validation set with ROC-AUC of 83.6% and 95.1% for the 1 and 3 year follow-up censoring, respectively. A web-based tool was developed to facilitate its use. Longitudinal trends of u-PSA did not display major discrepancies from those of t-PSA. The results support that u-PSA provides useful information for predicting BCR after RP. This can be beneficial to avoid unnecessary adjuvant treatments or to start them earlier for selected patients.Peer reviewe

Cost-effective survival prediction for patients with advanced prostate cancer using clinical trial and real-world hospital registry datasets

IntroductionPredictive survival modeling offers systematic tools for clinical decision-making and individualized tailoring of treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes while reducing overall healthcare costs. In 2015, a number of machine learning and statistical models were benchmarked in the DREAM 9.5 Prostate Cancer Challenge, based on open clinical trial data for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, applying these models into clinical practice poses a practical challenge due to the inclusion of a large number of model variables, some of which are not routinely monitored or are expensive to measure.ObjectivesTo develop cost-specified variable selection algorithms for constructing cost-effective prognostic models of overall survival that still preserve sufficient model performance for clinical decision making.MethodsPenalized Cox regression models were used for the survival prediction. For the variable selection, we implemented two algorithms: (i) LASSO regularization approach; and (ii) a greedy cost-specified variable selection algorithm. The models were compared in three cohorts of mCRPC patients from randomized clinical trials (RCT), as well as in a real-world cohort (RWC) of advanced prostate cancer patients treated at the Turku University Hospital. Hospital laboratory expenses were utilized as a reference for computing the costs of introducing new variables into the models.ResultsCompared to measuring the full set of clinical variables, economic costs could be reduced by half without a significant loss of model performance. The greedy algorithm outperformed the LASSO-based variable selection with the lowest tested budgets. The overall top performance was higher with the LASSO algorithm.ConclusionThe cost-specified variable selection offers significant budget optimization capability for the real-world survival prediction without compromising the predictive power of the model.</div

A three-feature prediction model for metastasis-free survival after surgery of localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma

After surgery of localized renal cell carcinoma, over 20% of the patients will develop distant metastases. Our aim was to develop an easy-to-use prognostic model for predicting metastasis-free survival after radical or partial nephrectomy of localized clear cell RCC. Model training was performed on 196 patients. Right-censored metastasis-free survival was analysed using LASSO-regularized Cox regression, which identified three key prediction features. The model was validated in an external cohort of 714 patients. 55 (28%) and 134 (19%) patients developed distant metastases during the median postoperative follow-up of 6.3 years (interquartile range 3.4-8.6) and 5.4 years (4.0-7.6) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. Patients were stratified into clinically meaningful risk categories using only three features: tumor size, tumor grade and microvascular invasion, and a representative nomogram and a visual prediction surface were constructed using these features in Cox proportional hazards model. Concordance indices in the training and validation cohorts were 0.755 +/- 0.029 and 0.836 +/- 0.015 for our novel model, which were comparable to the C-indices of the original Leibovich prediction model (0.734 +/- 0.035 and 0.848 +/- 0.017, respectively). Thus, the presented model retains high accuracy while requiring only three features that are routinely collected and widely available.Peer reviewe