Power load forecasting

For the electric power factory, the power load forecasting problem, including load forecasting and consumption predicting, is crucial to work planning. According to the predicting time, it can be divided into long-term forecasting, mid-term forecasting, short-term forecasting and ultra-short-term forecasting. The long-term and mid-term forecasting are mainly used for macro control, and their forecasting time arrange are from one year to ten years and from one month to twelve months respectively. The short-term forecasting which prediction time is from one day to seven days is used in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and some other areas. Predicting the situation in next 24 hours is named as the ultra-short-term forecasting which is used for failure prediction, emergency treatment and frequency control. In general, the forecast accuracy is different for different prediction time. The longer is the time, the lower accurate is the prediction. As the unique power supplier in Huizhou (China), Huizhou Electric Power wants to know the solution to the problems: 1. Prediction of the total electrical consumption and the peak load of the city in 2006 based on the economy development and the feature of the city. 2. Monthly prediction of the consumption and peak load in 2006. 3. Daily prediction of the consumption and peak load from July 10th to 16th in 2006. 4. Prediction of the load every 15 minutes of July 10th. 5. Real-time forecasting which means to amend the existing load prediction for next 15 minute

Strangeness production in heavy ion collisions at SPS and RHIC within two-source statistical model

The experimental data on hadron yields and ratios in central Pb+Pb and Au+Au collisions at SPS and RHIC energies, respectively, are analysed within a two-source statistical model of an ideal hadron gas. These two sources represent the expanding system of colliding heavy ions, where the hot central fireball is embedded in a larger but cooler fireball. The volume of the central source increases with rising bombarding energy. Results of the two-source model fit to RHIC experimental data at midrapidity coincide with the results of the one-source thermal model fit, indicating the formation of an extended fireball, which is three times larger than the corresponding core at SPS.Comment: Talk at "Strange Quarks in Matter" Conference (Strangeness'2001), September 2001, Frankfurt a.M., German

Using particle shape to induce tilted and bistable liquid crystal anchoring

We use Monte Carlo simulations of hard Gaussian overlap (HGO) particles symmetrically confined in slab geometry to investigate the role of particle-substrate interactions on liquid crystalline anchoring. Despite the restriction here to purely steric interactions and smooth substrates, a range of behaviours are captured, including tilted anchoring and homeotropic-planar bistability. These macroscopic behaviours are all achieved through appropriate tuning of the microscopics of the HGO-substrate interaction, based upon non-additive descriptions for the HGO-substrate shape parameter.</p

Annihilation Type Radiative Decays of BB Meson in Perturbative QCD Approach

With the perturbative QCD approach based on $k_T$ factorization, we study the pure annihilation type radiative decays $B^0 \to \phi\gamma$ and $B^0\to J/\psi \gamma$. We find that the branching ratio of $B^0 \to \phi\gamma$ is $(2.7^{+0.3+1.2}_{-0.6-0.6})\times10^{-11}$, which is too small to be measured in the current $B$ factories of BaBar and Belle. The branching ratio of $B^0\to J/\psi \gamma$ is $({4.5^{+0.6+0.7}_{-0.5-0.6}})\times10^{-7}$, which is just at the corner of being observable in the $B$ factories. A larger branching ratio $BR(B_s^0 \to J/\psi \gamma) \simeq 5 \times 10^{-6}$ is also predicted. These decay modes will help us testing the standard model and searching for new physics signals.Comment: 4 pages, revtex, with 1 eps figur

Gamma-ray bursts: postburst evolution of fireballs

The postburst evolution of fireballs that produce $\gamma$-ray bursts is studied, assuming the expansion of fireballs to be adiabatic and relativistic. Numerical results as well as an approximate analytic solution for the evolution are presented. Due to adoption of a new relation among $t$, $R$ and $\gamma$ (see the text), our results differ markedly from the previous studies. Synchrotron radiation from the shocked interstellar medium is attentively calculated, using a convenient set of equations. The observed X-ray flux of GRB afterglows can be reproduced easily. Although the optical afterglows seem much more complicated, our results can still present a rather satisfactory approach to observations. It is also found that the expansion will no longer be highly relativistic about 4 days after the main GRB. We thus suggest that the marginally relativistic phase of the expansion should be investigated so as to check the afterglows observed a week or more later.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, MNRAS in pres

Is GRO J1744-28 a Strange Star?

The unusal hard x-ray burster GRO J1744-28 recently discovered by the Compton Gamma-ray Observatory (GRO) can be modeled as a strange star with a dipolar magnetic field $\le 10^{11}$Gauss. When the accreted mass of the star exceeds some critical mass, its crust may break, resulting in conversion of the accreted matter into strange matter and release of energy. Subsequently, a fireball may form and expand relativistically outward. The expanding fireball may interact with the surrounding interstellar medium, causing its kinetic energy to be radiated in shock waves, producing a burst of x-ray radiation. The burst energy, duration, interval and spectrum derived from such a model are consistent with the observations of GRO J1744-28.Comment: Latex, has been published in SCIENCE, Vol. 280, 40