Models and methods for transport demand and decarbonisation: a review

Rising global greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector pose a major challenge to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. This raises questions of how technology, infrastructure and societal trends and policies can influence transport demand and thus also emissions, energy demand and service levels. Here, we review the literature on factors relevant to shifting total transport activity and mode shares, categorised into exogenous drivers, socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological aspects. For each factor, we summarise current approaches to modelling and measuring the impact of each factor on transport systems, resulting in a proposed taxonomy to classify transport demand modelling approaches. We then comment on the suitability and sufficiency of existing modelling approaches for representing scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets in models of the entire global energy system. Factors that affect transport demand are currently insufficiently represented in integrated assessment modelling approaches and thus emission reduction pathways. Improving the comprehension and representation of diverse factors that affect transport demand in global energy systems models, by incorporating features of complementary models with high resolution representations of transport, holds promise for generating well informed policy recommendations. Accordingly, policies could influence the development of the factors themselves and their potential role in mitigating climate change.</p

Intraperitoneal drain placement and outcomes after elective colorectal surgery: International matched, prospective, cohort study

Background Many surgeons routinely place intraperitoneal drains after elective colorectal surgery. However, enhanced recovery after surgery guidelines recommend against their routine use owing to a lack of clear clinical benefit. This study aimed to describe international variation in intraperitoneal drain placement and the safety of this practice. Methods COMPASS (COMPlicAted intra-abdominal collectionS after colorectal Surgery) was a prospective, international, cohort study which enrolled consecutive adults undergoing elective colorectal surgery (February to March 2020). The primary outcome was the rate of intraperitoneal drain placement. Secondary outcomes included: rate and time to diagnosis of postoperative intraperitoneal collections; rate of surgical site infections (SSIs); time to discharge; and 30-day major postoperative complications (Clavien–Dindo grade at least III). After propensity score matching, multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to estimate the independent association of the secondary outcomes with drain placement. Results Overall, 1805 patients from 22 countries were included (798 women, 44.2 per cent; median age 67.0 years). The drain insertion rate was 51.9 per cent (937 patients). After matching, drains were not associated with reduced rates (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, 95 per cent c.i. 0.79 to 2.23; P = 0.287) or earlier detection (hazard ratio (HR) 0.87, 0.33 to 2.31; P = 0.780) of collections. Although not associated with worse major postoperative complications (OR 1.09, 0.68 to 1.75; P = 0.709), drains were associated with delayed hospital discharge (HR 0.58, 0.52 to 0.66; P < 0.001) and an increased risk of SSIs (OR 2.47, 1.50 to 4.05; P < 0.001). Conclusion Intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery is not associated with earlier detection of postoperative collections, but prolongs hospital stay and increases SSI risk

Long term health outcomes in people with diabetes 12 months after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK: a prospective cohort study

Background: People with diabetes are at increased risk of hospitalisation, morbidity, and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Long-term outcomes for people with diabetes previously hospitalised with COVID-19 are, however, unknown. This study aimed to determine the longer-term physical and mental health effects of COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes. Methods: The PHOSP-COVID study is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults discharged from hospital between 1 February 2020 and 31 March 2021 in the UK following COVID-19, involving detailed assessment at 5 and 12 months after discharge. The association between diabetes status and outcomes were explored using multivariable linear and logistic regressions. Findings: People with diabetes who survived hospital admission with COVID-19 display worse physical outcomes compared to those without diabetes at 5- and 12-month follow-up. People with diabetes displayed higher fatigue (only at 5 months), frailty, lower physical performance, and health-related quality of life and poorer cognitive function. Differences in outcomes between diabetes status groups were largely consistent from 5 to 12-months. In regression models, differences at 5 and 12 months were attenuated after adjustment for BMI and presence of other long-term conditions. Interpretation: People with diabetes reported worse physical outcomes up to 12 months after hospital discharge with COVID-19 compared to those without diabetes. These data support the need to reduce inequalities in long-term physical and mental health effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection in people with diabetes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research. The study was approved by the Leeds West Research Ethics Committee (20/YH/0225) and is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107)

Cognitive and psychiatric symptom trajectories 2–3 years after hospital admission for COVID-19: a longitudinal, prospective cohort study in the UK

Background: COVID-19 is known to be associated with increased risks of cognitive and psychiatric outcomes after the acute phase of disease. We aimed to assess whether these symptoms can emerge or persist more than 1 year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, to identify which early aspects of COVID-19 illness predict longer-term symptoms, and to establish how these symptoms relate to occupational functioning. Methods: The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study of adults (aged ≥18 years) who were hospitalised with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 at participating National Health Service hospitals across the UK. In the C-Fog study, a subset of PHOSP-COVID participants who consented to be recontacted for other research were invited to complete a computerised cognitive assessment and clinical scales between 2 years and 3 years after hospital admission. Participants completed eight cognitive tasks, covering eight cognitive domains, from the Cognitron battery, in addition to the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire for depression, the Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy Fatigue Scale, and the 20-item Cognitive Change Index (CCI-20) questionnaire to assess subjective cognitive decline. We evaluated how the absolute risks of symptoms evolved between follow-ups at 6 months, 12 months, and 2–3 years, and whether symptoms at 2–3 years were predicted by earlier aspects of COVID-19 illness. Participants completed an occupation change questionnaire to establish whether their occupation or working status had changed and, if so, why. We assessed which symptoms at 2–3 years were associated with occupation change. People with lived experience were involved in the study. Findings: 2469 PHOSP-COVID participants were invited to participate in the C-Fog study, and 475 participants (191 [40·2%] females and 284 [59·8%] males; mean age 58·26 [SD 11·13] years) who were discharged from one of 83 hospitals provided data at the 2–3-year follow-up. Participants had worse cognitive scores than would be expected on the basis of their sociodemographic characteristics across all cognitive domains tested (average score 0·71 SD below the mean [IQR 0·16–1·04]; p<0·0001). Most participants reported at least mild depression (263 [74·5%] of 353), anxiety (189 [53·5%] of 353), fatigue (220 [62·3%] of 353), or subjective cognitive decline (184 [52·1%] of 353), and more than a fifth reported severe depression (79 [22·4%] of 353), fatigue (87 [24·6%] of 353), or subjective cognitive decline (88 [24·9%] of 353). Depression, anxiety, and fatigue were worse at 2–3 years than at 6 months or 12 months, with evidence of both worsening of existing symptoms and emergence of new symptoms. Symptoms at 2–3 years were not predicted by the severity of acute COVID-19 illness, but were strongly predicted by the degree of recovery at 6 months (explaining 35·0–48·8% of the variance in anxiety, depression, fatigue, and subjective cognitive decline); by a biocognitive profile linking acutely raised D-dimer relative to C-reactive protein with subjective cognitive deficits at 6 months (explaining 7·0–17·2% of the variance in anxiety, depression, fatigue, and subjective cognitive decline); and by anxiety, depression, fatigue, and subjective cognitive deficit at 6 months. Objective cognitive deficits at 2–3 years were not predicted by any of the factors tested, except for cognitive deficits at 6 months, explaining 10·6% of their variance. 95 of 353 participants (26·9% [95% CI 22·6–31·8]) reported occupational change, with poor health being the most common reason for this change. Occupation change was strongly and specifically associated with objective cognitive deficits (odds ratio [OR] 1·51 [95% CI 1·04–2·22] for every SD decrease in overall cognitive score) and subjective cognitive decline (OR 1·54 [1·21–1·98] for every point increase in CCI-20). Interpretation: Psychiatric and cognitive symptoms appear to increase over the first 2–3 years post-hospitalisation due to both worsening of symptoms already present at 6 months and emergence of new symptoms. New symptoms occur mostly in people with other symptoms already present at 6 months. Early identification and management of symptoms might therefore be an effective strategy to prevent later onset of a complex syndrome. Occupation change is common and associated mainly with objective and subjective cognitive deficits. Interventions to promote cognitive recovery or to prevent cognitive decline are therefore needed to limit the functional and economic impacts of COVID-19. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre, Wolfson Foundation, MQ Mental Health Research, MRC-UK Research and Innovation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research.</p