Picturing classical and quantum Bayesian inference

We introduce a graphical framework for Bayesian inference that is sufficiently general to accommodate not just the standard case but also recent proposals for a theory of quantum Bayesian inference wherein one considers density operators rather than probability distributions as representative of degrees of belief. The diagrammatic framework is stated in the graphical language of symmetric monoidal categories and of compact structures and Frobenius structures therein, in which Bayesian inversion boils down to transposition with respect to an appropriate compact structure. We characterize classical Bayesian inference in terms of a graphical property and demonstrate that our approach eliminates some purely conventional elements that appear in common representations thereof, such as whether degrees of belief are represented by probabilities or entropic quantities. We also introduce a quantum-like calculus wherein the Frobenius structure is noncommutative and show that it can accommodate Leifer's calculus of `conditional density operators'. The notion of conditional independence is also generalized to our graphical setting and we make some preliminary connections to the theory of Bayesian networks. Finally, we demonstrate how to construct a graphical Bayesian calculus within any dagger compact category.Comment: 38 pages, lots of picture

ASEAN and the Dynamics of Resistance to Sovereignty Violation:The Case of the Third Indochina War (1978–1991)

This article investigates the history of ASEAN’s relationship to external intervention in regional affairs. It addresses a specific question: What was the basic cause of the success of ASEAN resistance to the Vietnamese challenge to ASEAN’s sovereignty from 1978-1991? ASEAN’s history is understood in terms of a realist theoretical logic, in terms of the relationship between an ASEAN state with the most compelling interests at stake in a given issue, which I call a ‘vanguard state,’ and selected external powers. Using the Third Indochina War (1978–1991) as a case study, this article contends that ASEAN’s ability to resist violations to the sovereignty of Thailand from a Soviet-backed Vietnam is a consequence of high interest convergence between Thailand, and a designated external power, China

The development of HISPEC for Keck and MODHIS for TMT: science cases and predicted sensitivities

HISPEC is a new, high-resolution near-infrared spectrograph being designed for the W.M. Keck II telescope. By offering single-shot, R 100,000 spectroscopy between 0.98 – 2.5 µm, HISPEC will enable spectroscopy of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets in close orbits, direct high-contrast detection and spectroscopy of spatially separated substellar companions, and exoplanet dynamical mass and orbit measurements using precision radial velocity monitoring calibrated with a suite of state-of-the-art absolute and relative wavelength references. MODHIS is the counterpart to HISPEC for the Thirty Meter Telescope and is being developed in parallel with similar scientific goals. In this proceeding, we provide a brief overview of the current design of both instruments, and the requirements for the two spectrographs as guided by the scientific goals for each. We then outline the current science case for HISPEC and MODHIS, with focuses on the science enabled for exoplanet discovery and characterization. We also provide updated sensitivity curves for both instruments, in terms of both signal-to-noise ratio and predicted radial velocity precision. © 2023 SPIE.Immediate accessThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]