Can Brazil Replace 5% Of The 2025 Gasoline World Demand With Ethanol?

Increasing use of petroleum, coupled with concern for global warming, demands the development and institution of CO 2 reducing, non-fossil fuel-based alternative energy-generating strategies. Ethanol is a potential alternative, particularly when produced in a sustainable way as is envisioned for sugarcane in Brazil. We consider the expansion of sugarcane-derived ethanol to displace 5% of projected gasoline use worldwide in 2025. With existing technology, 21 million hectares of land will be required to produce the necessary ethanol. This is less than 7% of current Brazilian agricultural land and equivalent to current soybean land use. New production lands come from pasture made available through improving pasture management in the cattle industry. With the continued introduction of new cane varieties (annual yield increases of about 1.6%) and new ethanol production technologies, namely the hydrolysis of bagasse to sugars for ethanol production and sugarcane trash collection providing renewable process energy production, this could reduce these modest land requirements by 29-38%. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.345655661Leite, R.C.C., Silva, C.E.T.G., (2002) Energy for Brazil: a survival model (Energia para o Brasil: um modelo de sobrevivência), , Expressão e Cultura, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [in Portuguese]Leite RC. Study of large scale production of ethanol, its possibilities and impacts, aiming the partial substitution of world gasoline (Estudo sobre as possibilidades e impactos da produção de grandes quantidades de etanol visando à substituição parcial de gasolina no Mundo), 2005 [in Portuguese]. See also: 〈http://www.cgee.org.br/prospeccao/doc_arq/prod/registro/pdf/regdoc 2162.pdf〉Guerra, S.M.G., Cortez, L.A.B., Biomass energy: A historical trend in Brazil (1992) Proceedings of the World Renewable Energy Congress, , Reading, UK, 13-18 SeptemberWalter, A., Cortez, L.A.B., An historical overview of the Brazilian bioethanol program (1999) Stockholm Environment Institute/Newsletter of the Energy Programme, 11, pp. 2-4Scandiffio MIG. Prospective analysis of fuel ethanol in Brazil: scenarios 2004-2024. (Análise Prospectiva do Álcool Combustível no Brasil: Cenários 2004-2024). PhD thesis, University of Campinas2005. 182pp. [in Portuguese]Furtado AF. Biomass energy and methods of development (Energy de la Biomasse et Style de Development). PhD thesis, Universite de Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne, 1983 [in French]National Petroleum Agency (Agência Nacional do Petróleo-ANP). Decree No 2. Specification for commercialization of anhydrous and hydrated ethanol in national territory. 2002 [in Portuguese]Anuário da Indústria Automobilística Brasileira (2008) Brazilian Automotive Industry Yearbook, , Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores-ANFAVEA-Brasil, EditionCortez, L.A.B., Griffin, M., Scandiffio, M.I.G., Scaramucci, J.A., Worldwide use of ethanol: A contribution for economic and environmental sustainability sustainable development of energy (2002) water and environment systems proceedings, , Dubrovnik, 2-7 JulyRamalho, E.L., Cortez, L.A.B., Proalcool and crises in the sugar-ethanol sector (PROALCOOL e a Crise do Setor Sucroalcooleiro) (1999) Proceedings from Congresso Brasileiro de Energia-CBE, 3, pp. 1390-1396. , Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in PortugueseCortez, L.A.B., Guerra, S.M.G., Lamparelli, R.A., An overall evaluation of the alcohol programme in Brazil after 15 years of existence (1991) Ninth international symposium on alcohol fuels, , Florence, Italy, NovemberCortez, L.A.B., (1996) The Brazilian ethanol program after twenty years (O Programa Brasileiro de Álcool Combustível 20 Anos Depois) III Congresso Nacional de Energia. 17-19 April, La Serena, , Chile, in PortugueseFurtado AT, Scandiffio MIG. A Promessa do Etanol no Brasil (The ethanol promisse in Brazil). Scientific American, Edição Especial Brasil. Ano 5, No. 53Outubro 2006 [in Portuguese]Cortez LAB. A 30 years balance of the proalcool program (Um Balanço de 30 Anos do Proálcool). Event for the proalcool 30th anniversary. Ethanol: present and perspectives. UNICAMP 16-17/November, Campinas, Brazil. 2005. See also: 〈http://www.nipeunicamp.org.br/proalcool/Palestras/16/proalcool30%5 B1%5D-Cortez.ppt〉 [in Portuguese]Brazilian Federal Government (2007) Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, , Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy [Ministério de Minas e Energia-MME] Brazilian Energy Balance BEN, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [in PortugueseDatagro. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Sugar Commodity Note, 2007. See also: 〈http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/highlight10872en.html〉Licht FO. 2007 In renewable fuels association-industry statistics, 2008. See also: 〈http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics〉Rosillo-Calle, F., Cortez, L.A.B., Towards proalcool II. A review of the Brazilian bioethanol programme (1998) Biomass & Bioenegy, 14 (2), pp. 115-124União da Agroindústria Canavieira de São Paulo-UNICA. Statistics. 2008. See also: 〈www.portalunica.com.br〉 [in Portuguese]International Energy Agency-IEA Energy Statistic. Oil in World in 2005. See also: 〈http://www.iea.org./Textbase/stats/oildata.asp?〉(2003) Annual Energy Outlook, Table A2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source, , Energy Information AdministrationJoseph Jr, H. The vehicle adaptation to ethanol fuel. Presentation to the Royal Society Biofuels Meeting. The Royal Society, 23-24 April 2007, London, UK. See also: 〈www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=4248〉Bailey, K., Performance of ethanol as a transportation fuel (1996) Handbook of bioethanol: production and utilization, pp. 3-60. , Wyman C.E. (Ed), Taylor and Francis, WashingtonBraunbeck, O., Macedo, I., Cortez, L., Increasing the available biomass from sugarcane for energy conversion (2001) International workshop implementation strategies for biomass utilization in Europe and developing countries, , 19-21 November, SwedenBrazilian Ministry of Environment [Ministério do Meio Ambiente-MMA]. Federal Law Nr. 4.771, dated September, 15, 1965, Article 16th. 〈http://www.lei.adv.br/4771-65.htm〉. See also: 〈http://www.cetesb..sp.gov.br/licenciamentoo/legislacao/estadual/de cretos/2006_Dec_Est_50889.pdf〉USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. GAIN report. Brazil Bio-Fuels Annual. Ethanol GAIN report number: BR7011, 2007. See also: 〈http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200707/146291791.pdf〉Jank, M.S., The Old Sugarcane (2007) Fórum Internacional sobre o Futuro do Álcool, pp. 12-16. , Revista Opiniões Ed. Out-Dez:, São Paulo, in PortugueseConservation International. Cerrado 2008. See also: 〈http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots/cerrado/Pages/defa ult.aspx〉 [Last accessed June 30, 2008]Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., Hawthorne, P., Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt (2008) Science, 319, pp. 1235-1238Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R.A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Use of US croplands for biofuels increase greenhouse gases through emissions from land use change (2008) Science, 319, pp. 1238-1240Landers, J.N., (2007) Tropical crop livestock system in conservation agriculture. The Brazilian experience. Integrated crop management, 5-2007. , Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome(2007), www.transportes.gov.br, Brazilian Ministry of Transportation [Ministério dos Transportes, HomepagePrograma de Aceleração do Crescimento-PAC 2007-2010, Casa Civil, Presidência da República] (2007) Material para a Imprensa, , Federal Government Development Program, BrasíliaTranspetro Transportes Petrobrás, 2008. Homepage: 〈htt://www.transpetro.com.br/www.transpetro.com.br/TranspetroSite/a ppmanager/transpPortal〉Cunha, M.P., Scaramucci, J.A., Bioethanol as basis for regional development in Brazil: An input-output model with mixed technologies (2006) 46th Congress of the European Regional Science Association (ERSA), , VolosPatzek, T.W., Pimentel, D., Thermodynamics of energy production from biomass (2005) Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, 24, pp. 327-364Pimentel, D., Ethanol fuels: energy balance, economics, and environmental impacts are negative (2003) Natural Resources Research, 12, pp. 127-134Pimentel, D., Ethanol fuels: energy, economics and environmental impact (2001) International Sugar Journal, 103, p. 491Giampietro, M., Ulgiati, S., Pimentel, D., Feasibility of large-scale biofuel production (1997) BioScience, 47, pp. 587-600Graboski MS. Fossil energy use in the manufacture of corn ethanol. Prepared for the National Corn Growers Association, 2002. See also: 〈http://www.ncga.com/ethanol/pdfs/energy_balance_report_final_R1.PD F〉 [last accessed June 15, 2008]Shapouri, H., McAloon, A., (2004) The 2001 net energy balance of corn-ethanol, , US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DCWang M. Development and use of GREET 1.6 fuel-cycle model for transportation fuels and vehicle technologies. Technical report no. ANL/ESD/TM-163. Argonne National Laboratory, Center for Transportation Research, Argonne, IL, 2001. See also: 〈http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/GREET/public ations.html〉Farrell, A.E., Plevin, R.J., Turner, B.T., Jones, A.D., O'Hare, M., Kammen, D.M., Supporting online material to ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals (2006) Science, 311, pp. 506-508. , http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5760/506/DC1, See also: 〈http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5760/506/DC1〉Farrell, A.E., Plevin, R.J., Turner, B.T., Jones, A.D., O'Hare, M., Kammen, D.M., Ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals (2006) Science, 311, pp. 506-508Kim, S., Dale, B.E., Environmental aspects of ethanol derived from no-tilled corn grain: nonrenewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (2005) Biomass & Bioenergy, 28, pp. 475-489Macedo I, Leal M, Silva J. da. Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in the production and use of fuel ethanol in Brazil. 2004. See also: 〈www.unica.com.br/i_pages/files/pdf_ingles.pdf〉von Blottnitz, H., Curran, M.A., A review of assessments conducted on bio-ethanol as a transportation fuel from a net energy, greenhouse gas, and environmental life cycle perspective (2007) Journal of Cleaner Production, 15, pp. 607-619Adler, P.R., Del Grosso, S.J., Parton, W.J., Life-cycle assessment of net greenhouse-gas flux for bioenergy cropping systems (2007) Ecological Applications, 17, pp. 675-691Leibtag, E., Corn prices near record high, but what about food costs? (2008) AmberWaves, 6, pp. 10-15National Academy of Science-NAS. Water implications of biofuels production in the United States. 2007. Report in brief. See also: 〈http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/biofuels_brief_final.pdf〉 [Last accessed June 15, 2008]Keeney, D., Muller, M., (2006) Water use by ethanol plants: potential challenges, , Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, Minneapolis, MNMacedo I. A Energia da Cana-de-Açúcar (sugar cane's energy: twelve studies on Brazilian sugar cane agribusiness and its sustainability). UNICA (Sao Paulo Sugarcane Agro industry Union). Sao Paulo, Brazil. 2005. See also: 〈http://www.portalunica.com.br/portalunica/?Secao=referên cia&SubSecao=publicações&SubSubSecao=livros〉Kim, S., Dale, B.E., Life cycle assessment of various cropping systems utilized for producing biofuels: Bioethanol and biodiesel (2005) Biomass & Bioenergy, 29, pp. 426-439Spatari, S., Zhang, Y.M., MacLean, H.L., Life cycle assessment of switchgrass and corn stover derived ethanol fueled automobiles (2005) Environmental Science & Technology, 39, pp. 9750-9758Kim, S., Dale, B.E., Cumulative energy and global warming impact from the production of biomass for biobased products (2004) Journal of Industrial Ecology, 7, pp. 147-162Sheehan, J.A., Aden, K., Paustian, K., Kilian, J., Brenner, Walsh, M., Nelson, R., Energy and environmental aspects of using corn stover for fuel ethanol (2004) Journal of Industrial Ecology, 7, pp. 117-146The Gallagher Review. The Gallagher review of indirect effects of biofuels production. Report to UK Renewable Fuels Agency, 2008. See also: 〈http://www.renewablefuelsagency.org/_db/documents/Report_of_the_Ga llagher_review.pdf〉Smeets E, Junginger M, Faaij A, Walter A, Dolzan P. Sustainability of Brazilian bio-ethanol. Universiteit Utrech. Copernicus Institute, Department of Science, Technology and Society. Report NWS. 2006, E-2006-110. See also: 〈http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/chem/2007-0628-202408/UUindex. html〉Crutzen, P.J., Mosier, A.R., Smith, K.A., Winiwarter, W., N 2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels (2007) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, 7, pp. 11191-11205Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística-IBGE]. Evolução da Produtividade da Cana-de-Açúcar no Brasil. 2008. See also: 〈www.ibge.gov.br〉Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane and Agroenergy [Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Cana-de-Açúcar e Agroenergia-MAPA], 2008. See also: 〈www.agricultura.gov.br〉Wooley R, Ruth M, Sheehan J, Ibsen K, Majdeski H, Galvez A. Lignocellulosic biomass to ethanol process design and economics utilizing co-current dilute acid prehydrolysis and enzymatic hydrolysis current and futuristic scenarios, National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL/TP-580-26157, 1999Hassuani, S., Leal, M., Macedo, I., (2005) Biomass power generation, , Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento and Centro de Tecnologia Canavieir, Piracicab