The impact of nonlinear exposure-risk relationships on seasonal time-series data: modelling Danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures

Repeated Assessments of Informed Consent Comprehension among HIV-Infected Participants of a Three-Year Clinical Trial in Botswana

Informed consent (IC) has been an international standard for decades for the ethical conduct of clinical trials. Yet frequently study participants have incomplete understanding of key issues, a problem exacerbated by language barriers or lack of familiarity with research concepts. Few investigators measure participant comprehension of IC, while even fewer conduct interim assessments once a trial is underway.We assessed comprehension of IC using a 20-question true/false quiz administered in 6-month intervals in the context of a placebo-controlled, randomized trial for the prevention of tuberculosis among HIV-infected adults in Botswana (2004-2009). Quizzes were offered in both Setswana and English. To enroll in the TB trial, participants were required to have ≥ 16/20 correct responses. We examined concepts understood and the degree to which understanding changed over three-years. We analyzed 5,555 quizzes from 1,835 participants. The participants' highest education levels were: 28% primary, 59% secondary, 9% tertiary and 7% no formal education. Eighty percent of participants passed the enrollment quiz (Quiz1) on their first attempt and the remainder passed on their second attempt. Those having higher than primary education and those who took the quiz in English were more likely to receive a passing score on their first attempt (adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, 3.1 (2.4-4.0) and 1.5 (1.2, 1.9), respectively). The trial's purpose or procedures were understood by 90-100% of participants, while 44-77% understood randomization, placebos, or risks. Participants who failed Quiz1 on their initial attempt were more likely to fail quizzes later in the trial. Pass rates improved with quiz re-administration in subsequent years.Administration of a comprehension quiz at enrollment and during follow-up was feasible in a large, international collaboration and efficiently determined IC comprehension by trial participants. Strategies to improve understanding of concepts like placebos and randomization are needed. Comprehension assessments throughout a study may reinforce key concepts

Common Variation in Vitamin D Pathway Genes Predicts Circulating 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels among African Americans

Vitamin D is implicated in a wide range of health outcomes, and although environmental predictors of vitamin D levels are known, the genetic drivers of vitamin D status remain to be clarified. African Americans are a group at particularly high risk for vitamin D insufficiency but to date have been virtually absent from studies of genetic predictors of circulating vitamin D levels. Within the Southern Community Cohort Study, we investigated the association between 94 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in five vitamin D pathway genes (GC, VDR, CYP2R1, CYP24A1, CYP27B1) and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels among 379 African American and 379 Caucasian participants. We found statistically significant associations with three SNPs (rs2298849 and rs2282679 in the GC gene, and rs10877012 in the CYP27B1 gene), although only for African Americans. A genotype score, representing the number of risk alleles across the three SNPs, alone accounted for 4.6% of the variation in serum vitamin D among African Americans. A genotype score of 5 (vs. 1) was also associated with a 7.1 ng/mL reduction in serum 25(OH)D levels and a six-fold risk of vitamin D insufficiency (<20 ng/mL) (odds ratio 6.0, p = 0.01) among African Americans. With African ancestry determined from a panel of 276 ancestry informative SNPs, we found that high risk genotypes did not cluster among those with higher African ancestry. This study is one of the first to investigate common genetic variation in relation to vitamin D levels in African Americans, and the first to evaluate how vitamin D-associated genotypes vary in relation to African ancestry. These results suggest that further evaluation of genetic contributors to vitamin D status among African Americans may help provide insights regarding racial health disparities or enable the identification of subgroups especially in need of vitamin D-related interventions

Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Culture for Diagnosis of Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Brazilian Adults

Culture of Mycobacterium tuberculosis currently represents the closest "gold standard" for diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB), but operational data are scant on the impact and cost-effectiveness of TB culture for human immunodeficiency (HIV-) infected individuals in resource-limited settings.We recorded costs, laboratory results, and dates of initiating TB therapy in a centralized TB culture program for HIV-infected patients in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, constructing a decision-analysis model to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of TB culture from the perspective of a public-sector TB control program. Of 217 TB suspects presenting between January 2006 and March 2008, 33 (15%) had culture-confirmed active tuberculosis; 23 (70%) were smear-negative. Among smear-negative, culture-positive patients, 6 (26%) began TB therapy before culture results were available, 11 (48%) began TB therapy after culture result availability, and 6 (26%) did not begin TB therapy within 180 days of presentation. The cost per negative culture was US$17.52 (solid media)-$23.50 (liquid media). Per 1,000 TB suspects and compared with smear alone, TB culture with solid media would avert an estimated eight TB deaths (95% simulation interval [SI]: 4, 15) and 37 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (95% SI: 13, 76), at a cost of $36 (95$25, $50) per TB suspect or$962 (95% SI: $469,$2642) per DALY averted. Replacing solid media with automated liquid culture would avert one further death (95% SI: -1, 4) and eight DALYs (95% SI: -4, 23) at $2751 per DALY (95$680, dominated). The cost-effectiveness of TB culture was more sensitive to characteristics of the existing TB diagnostic system than to the accuracy or cost of TB culture.TB culture is potentially effective and cost-effective for HIV-positive patients in resource-constrained settings. Reliable transmission of culture results to patients and integration with existing systems are essential

Core Outcomes for Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Consensus Study

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cause of worldwide morbidity and mortality. Surgical treatment is common, and there is a great need to improve the delivery of such care. The gold standard for evaluating surgery is within well-designed randomized controlled trials (RCTs); however, the impact of RCTs is diminished by a lack of coordinated outcome measurement and reporting. A solution to these issues is to develop an agreed standard “core” set of outcomes to be measured in all trials to facilitate cross-study comparisons, meta-analysis, and minimize outcome reporting bias. This study defines a core outcome set for CRC surgery. Methods and Findings: The scope of this COS includes clinical effectiveness trials of surgical interventions for colorectal cancer. Excluded were nonsurgical oncological interventions. Potential outcomes of importance to patients and professionals were identified through systematic literature reviews and patient interviews. All outcomes were transcribed verbatim and categorized into domains by two independent researchers. This informed a questionnaire survey that asked stakeholders (patients and professionals) from United Kingdom CRC centers to rate the importance of each domain. Respondents were resurveyed following group feedback (Delphi methods). Outcomes rated as less important were discarded after each survey round according to predefined criteria, and remaining outcomes were considered at three consensus meetings; two involving international professionals and a separate one with patients. A modified nominal group technique was used to gain the final consensus. Data sources identified 1,216 outcomes of CRC surgery that informed a 91 domain questionnaire. First round questionnaires were returned from 63 out of 81 (78%) centers, including 90 professionals, and 97 out of 267 (35%) patients. Second round response rates were high for all stakeholders (>80%). Analysis of responses lead to 45 and 23 outcome domains being retained after the first and second surveys, respectively. Consensus meetings generated agreement on a 12 domain COS. This constituted five perioperative outcome domains (including anastomotic leak), four quality of life outcome domains (including fecal urgency and incontinence), and three oncological outcome domains (including long-term survival). Conclusion: This study used robust consensus methodology to develop a core outcome set for use in colorectal cancer surgical trials. It is now necessary to validate the use of this set in research practice

Administration of intrapulmonary sodium polyacrylate to induce lung injury for the development of a porcine model of early acute respiratory distress syndrome.

BACKGROUND: The loss of alveolar epithelial and endothelial integrity is a central component in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); however, experimental models investigating the mechanisms of epithelial injury are lacking. The purpose of the present study was to design and develop an experimental porcine model of ARDS by inducing lung injury with intrapulmonary administration of sodium polyacrylate (SPA). METHODS: The present study was performed at the Centre for Comparative Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia. Human alveolar epithelial cells were cultured with several different concentrations of SPA; a bioluminescence technique was used to assess cell death associated with each concentration. In the anesthetized pig model (female Yorkshire X pigs (n = 14)), lung injury was caused in 11 animals (SPA group) by injecting sequential aliquots (5 mL) of 1% SPA gel in aqueous solution into the distal airway via a rubber catheter through an endotracheal tube. The SPA was dispersed throughout the lungs by manual bag ventilation. Three control animals (CON group) underwent all experimental procedures and measurements with the exception of SPA administration. RESULTS: The mean (± SD) ATP concentration after incubation of human alveolar epithelial cells with 0.1% SPA (0.92 ± 0.27 μM/well) was approximately 15% of the value found for the background control (6.30 ± 0.37 μM/well; p < 0.001). Elastance of the respiratory system (E RS) and the lung (E L) increased in SPA-treated animals after injury (p = 0.003 and p < 0.001, respectively). Chest wall elastance (E CW) did not change in SPA-treated animals. There were no differences in E RS, E L, or E CW in the CON group when pre- and post-injury values were compared. Analysis of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid showed a significant shift toward neutrophil predominance from before to after injury in SPA-treated animals (p < 0.001) but not in the CON group (p = 0.38). Necropsy revealed marked consolidation and congestion of the dorsal lung lobes in SPA-treated animals, with light-microscopy evidence of bronchiolar and alveolar spaces filled with neutrophilic infiltrate, proteinaceous debris, and fibrin deposition. These findings were absent in animals in the CON group. Electron microscopy of lung tissue from SPA-treated animals revealed injury to the alveolar epithelium and basement membranes, including intra-alveolar neutrophils and fibrin on the alveolar surface and intravascular fibrin (microthrombosis). CONCLUSIONS: In this particular porcine model, the nonimmunogenic polymer SPA caused a rapid exudative lung injury. This model may be useful to study ARDS caused by epithelial injury and inflammation

So Different, yet So Similar: Meta-Analysis and Policy Modeling of Willingness to Participate in Clinical Trials among Brazilians and Indians

BACKGROUND: With the global expansion of clinical trials and the expectations of the rise of the emerging economies known as BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the understanding of factors that affect the willingness to participate in clinical trials of patients from those countries assumes a central role in the future of health research. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilian patients and then we compared it with Indian patients (with results of another SRMA previously conducted by our group) through a system dynamics model. RESULTS: Five studies were included in the SRMA of Brazilian patients. Our main findings are 1) the major motivation for Brazilian patients to participate in clinical trials is altruism, 2) monetary reimbursement is the least important factor motivating Brazilian patients, 3) the major barrier for Brazilian patients to not participate in clinical trials is the fear of side effects, and 4) Brazilian patients are more likely willing to participate in clinical trials than Indians. CONCLUSION: Our study provides important insights for investigators and sponsors for planning trials in Brazil (and India) in the future. Ignoring these results may lead to unnecessary fund/time spending. More studies are needed to validate our results and for better understanding of this poorly studied theme

The impact of human capital on the early success of necessity versus opportunity-based entrepreneurs

This paper examines whether founders' backgrounds influence new firm survival in the early years after startup, focusing, in particular, on the impact of unemployment-driven entrepreneurship. For entrepreneurs who left their previous employment to found a new firm, both general and specific human capital play a key role in enhancing early survival chances. However, various forms of human capital have little effect on early survival of unemployment-driven entrepreneurs, who rely mostly on previous entrepreneurial experience to persevere. Results suggest that pre-entry capabilities play an important role in the early success of opportunity-based entrepreneurs, but have little influence on the early success of necessity-based ones

The impact of human capital on the early success of necessity versus opportunity-based entrepreneurs

This paper examines whether founders' backgrounds influence new firm survival in the early years after startup, focusing, in particular, on the impact of unemployment-driven entrepreneurship. For entrepreneurs who left their previous employment to found a new firm, both general and specific human capital play a key role in enhancing early survival chances. However, various forms of human capital have little effect on early survival of unemployment-driven entrepreneurs, who rely mostly on previous entrepreneurial experience to persevere. Results suggest that pre-entry capabilities play an important role in the early success of opportunity-based entrepreneurs, but have little influence on the early success of necessity-based ones