Modeling alcohol use disorder severity: An integrative structural equation modeling approach

Background: Alcohol dependence is a complex psychological disorder whose phenomenology changes as the disorder progresses. Neuroscience has provided a variety of theories and evidence for the development, maintenance, and severity of addiction; however, clinically, it has been difficult to evaluate alcohol use disorder (AUD) severity.Objective: This study seeks to evaluate and validate a data-driven approach to capturing alcohol severity in a community sample.Method: Participants were non-treatment seeking problem drinkers (n = 283). A structural equation modeling approach was used to (a) verify the latent factor structure of the indices of AUD severity; and (b) test the relationship between the AUD severity factor and measures of alcohol use, affective symptoms, and motivation to change drinking.Results: The model was found to fit well, with all chosen indices of AUD severity loading significantly and positively onto the severity factor. In addition, the paths from the alcohol use, motivation, and affective factors accounted for 68% of the variance in AUD severity. Greater AUD severity was associated with greater alcohol use, increased affective symptoms, and higher motivation to change.Conclusion: Unlike the categorical diagnostic criteria, the AUD severity factor is comprised of multiple quantitative dimensions of impairment observed across the progression of the disorder. The AUD severity factor was validated by testing it in relation to other outcomes such as alcohol use, affective symptoms, and motivation for change. Clinically, this approach to AUD severity can be used to inform treatment planning and ultimately to improve outcomes. © 2013 Moallem, Courtney, Bacio and Ray

Campaign finance laws that make small donations public maylead to fewer people contributing and to smaller donations.

In the American states, campaign finance laws require disclosure of private information for contributors at relatively low thresholds ranging from $1 to$300. The Internet has made it relatively easy to publicize such information in a way that changes the social context for political participation. Ray La Raja looks at how public disclosure of campaign contributions affects citizens’ willingness to give money to candidates. Drawing on social influence theory, his analysis suggests that citizens are sensitive to divulging private information, especially those who are surrounded by people with different political views. He shows that individuals refrain from making small campaign contributions or reduce their donations to avoid disclosing their identities

POTENTIAL FARM-LEVEL IMPACTS OF PROPOSED FQPA IMPLEMENTATION: THE TENNESSEE CASE

This research estimates farm-level impacts of a potential ban on organophosphates and carbamates under the FQPA. Insecticide expenditure and first- and fifth-year yield impacts are estimated for five Tennessee representative farms. Results indicate that within five years, the ban could reduce net farm income on Tennessee farms by 16 to 46 percent.FQPA, organophosphates, carbamates, insecticides, farm-level analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy,

ESTIMATING PRICE VARIABILITY IN AGRICULTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION MAKERS

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998-2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986-96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.POLYSYS model, Price variability, Stochastic simulation, Crop Production/Industries,

Being backed by extended party networks can mean a greater chance of electoral success for a Congressional challenger

Political parties play a central role in democracies, helping to mediate between citizens and governing elites by running candidates for office who promise to pursue policy programs. But what if “the party” is really more of a collection of interest groups than a traditional party organization? Using data from US congressional elections and campaign finance, Bruce Desmarais, Ray La Raja and Mike Kowal show that parties are networks of partisan groups that converge on select groups of challengers. They explain that parties in the U.S. have become so distinctive and polarized, because they represent unique coalitions of policy demanders that influence the ideological composition of Congress

On the Core of Dynamic Cooperative Games

We consider dynamic cooperative games, where the worth of coalitions varies over time according to the history of allocations. When defining the core of a dynamic game, we allow the possibility for coalitions to deviate at any time and thereby to give rise to a new environment. A coalition that considers a deviation needs to take the consequences into account because from the deviation point on, the game is no longer played with the original set of players. The deviating coalition becomes the new grand coalition which, in turn, induces a new dynamic game. The stage games of the new dynamical game depend on all previous allocation including those that have materialized from the deviating time on. We define three types of core solutions: fair core, stable core and credible core. We characterize the first two in case where the instantaneous game depends on the last allocation (rather than on the whole history of allocations) and the third in the general case. The analysis and the results resembles to a great extent the theory of non-cooperative dynamic games.Comment: 25 page

Towards a National Housing Strategy for Homeless Youth

This policy brief, "Towards a National Housing Strategy for Homeless Youth", is part of a series developed by the Hollywood Homeless Youth Partnership (HHYP) to advance policy and practice recommendations focused on preventing and ending youth homelessness. This brief emerges from "No Way Home: Understanding the Needs and Experiences of Homeless Youth in Hollywood", a report released by the HHYP in November 2010 presenting findings from a multi-method needs assessment conducted with 389 homeless youth ages 12 to 25 in the Hollywood community.The purpose of this brief is to address the inadequacies of prioritizing permanent housing as the only solution for homeless youth, identify the major limitations of our existing housing programs, and advocate for developing a national housing strategy and funding a full housing continuum for homeless young people that is responsive to their unique needs and circumstances. This brief is being released at a time of unprecedented interest in the issue of youth homelessness -- we hope it will inform federal and local planning and decision-making and help advance our national agenda of preventing and ending youth homelessness

Informal Insurance in Social Networks

This paper studies informal insurance across networks of individuals. Two characteristics are fundamental to the model developed here: First, informal insurance is a bilateral activity, and rarely involves explicit arrangements across several people. Second, insurance is a social activity, and transfers are often based on norms. In the model studied here, only directly linked agents make transfers to each other, although they are aware of the (aggregate) transfers each makes to third parties. An insurance scheme for the network as a whole is an equilibrium of several interacting bilateral arrangements. This model serves as a starting point for investigating stable insurance networks, in which all agents actually have private incentives to abide by the ongoing insurance arrangement. The resulting analysis shows that network links have two distinct and possibly conflicting roles to play. First, they act as conduits for transfers, and in this way this make better insurance possible. Second, they act as conduits for information, and in this sense they affect the severity of punishments for noncompliance with the scheme. A principal task of this paper is to describe how these two forces interact, and in the process characterize stable networks. The concept of "sparse" networks, in which the removal of certain links increases the number of network components, is crucial in this characterization. As corollaries, we found that both "thickly connected" networks(such as the complete graph) and "thinly connected" networks (such as trees) are likely to be stable, whereas intermediate degrees of connectedness jeopardize stability. Finally, we study in more detail the notion of networks as conduits for transfers, by simply assuming a punishment structure (such as autarky) that is independent of the precise architecture of the tree. This allows us to isolate a bottleneck effect: the presence of certain key agents who act as bridges for several transfers. Bottlenecks are captured well in a feature of trees that we call decomposability, and we show that all decomposable networks have the same stability properties and that these are the least likely to be stable.social networks, informal insurance