74 research outputs found
A semantical approach to equilibria and rationality
Game theoretic equilibria are mathematical expressions of rationality.
Rational agents are used to model not only humans and their software
representatives, but also organisms, populations, species and genes,
interacting with each other and with the environment. Rational behaviors are
achieved not only through conscious reasoning, but also through spontaneous
stabilization at equilibrium points.
Formal theories of rationality are usually guided by informal intuitions,
which are acquired by observing some concrete economic, biological, or network
processes. Treating such processes as instances of computation, we reconstruct
and refine some basic notions of equilibrium and rationality from the some
basic structures of computation.
It is, of course, well known that equilibria arise as fixed points; the point
is that semantics of computation of fixed points seems to be providing novel
methods, algebraic and coalgebraic, for reasoning about them.Comment: 18 pages; Proceedings of CALCO 200
Towards Machine Wald
The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and
predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with
limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical
evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed
\emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for
dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic
operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the
ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways:
(1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed
problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in
the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of
constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input
random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of
relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite
dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite.
With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework
for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and
reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian
Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty
Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page
Patterns in random walks and Brownian motion
We ask if it is possible to find some particular continuous paths of unit
length in linear Brownian motion. Beginning with a discrete version of the
problem, we derive the asymptotics of the expected waiting time for several
interesting patterns. These suggest corresponding results on the
existence/non-existence of continuous paths embedded in Brownian motion. With
further effort we are able to prove some of these existence and non-existence
results by various stochastic analysis arguments. A list of open problems is
presented.Comment: 31 pages, 4 figures. This paper is published at
http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-18585-9_
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