Incorporating social-ecological complexities into conservation policy

In the process of developing new conservation policies, policymakers must have access to information which will inform their decisions. Evidence rarely considers the complexities of social-ecological systems. The Social-Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) is an adaptable yet structured approach for understanding the processes that lead to changes in natural resources, using a systems-based approach that aims to treat ecological and social components equally. Few conservation planning and policy initiatives have implemented the SESF to assess the interlinked social and ecological consequences of conservation policies. We apply the SESF to explore the barriers to the potential implementation of a policy of consumptive utilisation of wildlife in Kenya, a policy regarded as successful in several southern African countries. Using secondary data and expert review we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with consumptive utilisation of wildlife in Kenya. We then analysed how different combinations of first and second-tier variables interacted to create focal action situations, and subsequently identified seven barriers to this policy. Our analysis revealed that game ranching would require large-scale investment in effective monitoring systems, new regulations, training, market development and research, considerations about equity, and devolved ownership of wildlife. The least barriers existed for game farming. The SESF appears to be a useful framework for this purpose. In particular, it can help to reveal potential social and ecological barriers which conservation policies might face in attempting to meet intended goals. The information required to implement the SESF are necessarily cross-disciplinary, which can make it challenging to synthesise

Safety and immunogenicity of recombinant low-dosage HIV-1 A vaccine candidates vectored by plasmid pTHr DNA or modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) in humans in East Africa.

The safety and immunogenicity of plasmid pTHr DNA, modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine candidates were evaluated in four Phase I clinical trials in Kenya and Uganda. Both vaccines, expressing HIV-1 subtype A gag p24/p17 and a string of CD8 T-cell epitopes (HIVA), were generally safe and well-tolerated. At the dosage levels and intervals tested, the percentage of vaccine recipients with HIV-1-specific cell-mediated immune responses, assessed by a validated ex vivo interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) ELISPOT assay and Cytokine Flow Cytometry (CFC), did not significantly differ from placebo recipients. These trials demonstrated the feasibility of conducting high-quality Phase 1 trials in Africa

Safety and immunogenicity of recombinant low-dosage HIV-1 A vaccine candidates vectored by plasmid pTHr DNA or modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) in humans in East Africa.

The safety and immunogenicity of plasmid pTHr DNA, modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine candidates were evaluated in four Phase I clinical trials in Kenya and Uganda. Both vaccines, expressing HIV-1 subtype A gag p24/p17 and a string of CD8 T-cell epitopes (HIVA), were generally safe and well-tolerated. At the dosage levels and intervals tested, the percentage of vaccine recipients with HIV-1-specific cell-mediated immune responses, assessed by a validated ex vivo interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) ELISPOT assay and Cytokine Flow Cytometry (CFC), did not significantly differ from placebo recipients. These trials demonstrated the feasibility of conducting high-quality Phase 1 trials in Africa

Safety and immunogenicity of recombinant low-dosage HIV-1 A vaccine candidates vectored by plasmid pTHr DNA or modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) in humans in East Africa.

The safety and immunogenicity of plasmid pTHr DNA, modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine candidates were evaluated in four Phase I clinical trials in Kenya and Uganda. Both vaccines, expressing HIV-1 subtype A gag p24/p17 and a string of CD8 T-cell epitopes (HIVA), were generally safe and well-tolerated. At the dosage levels and intervals tested, the percentage of vaccine recipients with HIV-1-specific cell-mediated immune responses, assessed by a validated ex vivo interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) ELISPOT assay and Cytokine Flow Cytometry (CFC), did not significantly differ from placebo recipients. These trials demonstrated the feasibility of conducting high-quality Phase 1 trials in Africa

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society