Social distancing strategies against disease spreading

The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, $i.e$, the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, $i.e$, the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.Comment: to be published in "Perspectives and Challenges in Statistical Physics and Complex Systems for the Next Decade", Word Scientific Pres

Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August---which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80\% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015

Effect of Omega-3 and Omega-6 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids on Gene Expression

Foods play an essential role in the management of disease; it is becoming increasingly common for individuals to turn to foods as a form of therapy or even prevention of progressive conditions, such as cancer. The biochemical makeup of a particular food can alter gene expression at a cellular level, possibly resulting in the prevention of cellular replication processes that ultimately lead to the unwanted initiation and growth of tumors. This project investigates the effects of both omega-3 (fish oil) and omega-6 (corn oil) polyunsaturated fatty acids in preventing the initiation and progression of colon cancer by gathering statistical trends in the presence of mRNA and miRNA, using samples retrieved from the colon of rats. This is accomplished using a data science programming language R, under R Studio interface environment, that helps the user to efficiently model, manipulate, and visualize expansive genomic data. It is hypothesized that negative regulation of mRNA by miRNA will be shown, by these two molecules essentially having an inverse relationship. Earlier research suggests that omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids can alter gene expression in the colon, meaning that they have highly useful chemopreventive properties. It is also hypothesized that the presence of omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids does not assist in the initiation of cancer; but nonetheless, provides no statistically substantial prevention. Upon completion of analysis within the scope of this project, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids cause much differential expression amongst genes in the context of colon cancer. Within this work, solid evidence was found to support the negative regulatory relationship of mRNA and miRNA. It is the goal that, with even further analyses and data integration, conclusions will provide support for the importance of incorporating foods that are contain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids into one’s diet. Common sources of this dietary fat include seafood and leafy vegetables, which are easy additions to an everyday diet, and likely carry a multitude of other health benefits as well