4,040 research outputs found
Bright X-ray flares in Orion young stars from COUP: evidence for star-disk magnetic fields?
We have analyzed a number of intense X-ray flares observed in the Chandra
Orion Ultradeep Project (COUP), a 13 days observation of the Orion Nebula
Cluster (ONC). Analysis of the flare decay allows to determine the size, peak
density and magnetic field of the flaring structure. A total of 32 events (the
most powerful 1% of COUP flares), have sufficient statistics for the analysis.
A broad range of decay times (from 10 to 400 ks) are present in the sample.
Peak flare temperatures are often very high, with half of the flares in the
sample showing temperatures in excess of 100 MK. Significant sustained heating
is present in the majority of the flares. The magnetic structures which are
found, are in a number of cases very long, with semi-lengths up to 10^12 cm,
implying the presence of magnetic fields of hundreds of G extending to
comparable distance from the stellar photosphere. These very large sizes for
the flaring structures ($ >> R_*) are not found in more evolved stars, where,
almost invariably, the same type of analysis results in structures with L <=
R_*. As the majority of young stars in the ONC are surrounded by disks, we
speculate that the large magnetic structures which confine the flaring plasma
are actually the same type of structures which channel the plasma in the
magnetospheric accretion paradigm, connecting the star's photosphere with the
accretion disk.Comment: Accepted to ApJS, COUP special issu
Compressive Earth Observatory: An Insight from AIRS/AMSU Retrievals
We demonstrate that the global fields of temperature, humidity and
geopotential heights admit a nearly sparse representation in the wavelet
domain, offering a viable path forward to explore new paradigms of
sparsity-promoting data assimilation and compressive recovery of land
surface-atmospheric states from space. We illustrate this idea using retrieval
products of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave
Sounding Unit (AMSU) on board the Aqua satellite. The results reveal that the
sparsity of the fields of temperature is relatively pressure-independent while
atmospheric humidity and geopotential heights are typically sparser at lower
and higher pressure levels, respectively. We provide evidence that these
land-atmospheric states can be accurately estimated using a small set of
measurements by taking advantage of their sparsity prior.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl
X-ray flares in Orion young stars. I. Flare characteristics
Pre-main sequence (PMS) stars are known to produce powerful X-ray flares
which resemble magnetic reconnection solar flares scaled by factors up to 10^4.
However, numerous puzzles are present including the structure of X-ray emitting
coronae and magnetospheres, effects of protoplanetary disks, and effects of
stellar rotation. To investigate these issues in detail, we examine 216 of the
brightest flares from 161 PMS stars observed in the Chandra Orion Ultradeep
Project (COUP). These constitute the largest homogeneous dataset of PMS, or
indeed stellar flares at any stellar age, ever acquired. Our effort is based on
a new flare spectral analysis technique that avoids nonlinear parametric
modeling. It can be applied to much weaker flares and is more sensitive than
standard methods. We provide a catalog with >30 derived flare properties and an
electronic atlas for this unique collection of stellar X-ray flares. The
current study (Paper I) examines the flare morphologies, and provides general
comparison of COUP flare characteristics with those of other active X-ray stars
and the Sun. Paper II will concentrate on relationships between flare behavior,
protoplanetary disks, and other stellar properties. Several results are
obtained. First, the COUP flares studied here are among the most powerful,
longest, and hottest stellar X-ray flares ever studied. Second, no significant
statistical differences in peak flare luminosity or temperature distributions
are found among different morphological flare classes, suggesting a common
underlying mechanism for all flares. Third, comparison with the general
solar-scaling laws indicates that COUP flares may not fit adequately proposed
power-temperature and duration-temperature solar-stellar fits. Fourth, COUP
super-hot flares are found to be brighter but shorter than ... ABRIDGEDComment: Accepted for publication in ApJ (07/11/08); 63 pages, 16 figures, 4
table
Extreme Value GARCH modelling with Bayesian Inference
RePEC Working Paper Series No: 05/2009Extreme value theory is widely used financial applications such as risk analysis, forecasting and pricing models. One of the major difficulties in the applications to finance and economics is that the assumption of independence of time series observations is generally not satisfied, so that the dependent extremes may not necessarily be in the
domain of attraction of the classical generalised extreme value distribution. This study
examines a conditional extreme value distribution with the added specification that the extreme values (maxima or minima) follows a conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity process. The dependence has been modelled by allowing the location and scale parameters of the extreme distribution to vary with time. The resulting combined
model, GEV-GARCH, is developed by implementing the GARCH volatility mechanism in these extreme value model parameters. Bayesian inference is used for the estimation of parameters and posterior inference is available through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The model is firstly applied to relevant simulated data to verify model
stability and reliability of the parameter estimation method. Then real stock returns are
used to consider evidence for the appropriate application of the model. A comparison is
made between the GEV-GARCH and traditional GARCH models. Both the GEV-GARCH and GARCH show similarity in the resulting conditional volatility estimates, however the GEV-GARCH model differs from GARCH in that it can capture and explain extreme
quantiles better than the GARCH model because of more reliable extrapolation of the tail behaviour
Bayesian Estimation of Hardness Ratios: Modeling and Computations
A commonly used measure to summarize the nature of a photon spectrum is the
so-called Hardness Ratio, which compares the number of counts observed in
different passbands. The hardness ratio is especially useful to distinguish
between and categorize weak sources as a proxy for detailed spectral fitting.
However, in this regime classical methods of error propagation fail, and the
estimates of spectral hardness become unreliable. Here we develop a rigorous
statistical treatment of hardness ratios that properly deals with detected
photons as independent Poisson random variables and correctly deals with the
non-Gaussian nature of the error propagation. The method is Bayesian in nature,
and thus can be generalized to carry out a multitude of
source-population--based analyses. We verify our method with simulation
studies, and compare it with the classical method. We apply this method to real
world examples, such as the identification of candidate quiescent Low-mass
X-ray binaries in globular clusters, and tracking the time evolution of a flare
on a low-mass star.Comment: 43 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables; submitted to Ap
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