6 research outputs found
An assessment of water management measures for climate change adaptation of agriculture in Seewinkel
To develop appropriate climate change adaptation plans, evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation measures is required. At a regional scale, however, this information is usually lacking. The region of Seewinkel in Austria was taken as a case study because of its extensive agricultural industry and its unique ecosystem of saline lakes. The goal of the study was to provide stakeholders with evidence to support their climate change adaptation process. Adaptation measures discussed by local stakeholders were analyzed to determine their efficacy. A system dynamics (SD) based model was developed to serve as a tool for the water policy analysis and to be used in place of advanced hydrological models. The model was calibrated using observational data and forced with bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate data for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (2010–2100). Three parameters in the model were changed to simulate adaptation measures. The results showed that combined measures, increasing irrigation efficiency and changing crops could reduce water demand by an average of 40 %, 23 % and 23 %, respectively, for all RCPs. The local aquifer's level could be increased above the historical average by an average of 0.43 m by combined measures, 0.20 m by increasing irrigation efficiency, 0.20 m by changing crops and 0.06 m by artificially recharging the aquifer
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Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5C and 2.0C warming and implications for regional impacts
This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5◦C and 5 2.0◦C of warming using the HAPPI “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Im- pacts” ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterizing and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5◦C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental 10 design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5◦C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland 15 shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5◦C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track.
Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the 20 Mediterranean, western Europe and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2â—¦C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming five times more likely
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Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °c global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes
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Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0g°C warming and implications for regional impacts
This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0g°C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5g°C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5g°C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5g°C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2g°C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely