Impact of scaling up prenatal nutrition interventions on human capital outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND: Prenatal nutrition interventions can lead to improved birth outcomes, which in turn are associated with better education and human capital outcomes later in life. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the impact of scaling up iron-folic acid (IFA), calcium, multiple micronutrient (MMS), and balanced energy protein (BEP) supplementation for pregnant women, on human capital outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: We used mathematical modeling with proportional reductions in adverse birth outcomes to estimate the potential gains in school years and lifetime income due to scaling up each prenatal nutrition intervention. Estimates of intervention effects on birth outcomes were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. Estimates of the associations between birth outcomes and schooling and lifetime income were derived from de novo meta-analyses of observational studies. RESULTS: Across 132 LMIC, scaling up prenatal nutrition interventions to 90% coverage was estimated to increase school years and lifetime income per birth cohort by: 2.28 million y (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): -0.44, 6.26) and $8.26 billion (95$18.9 billion (95% UI: 0.59, 44.6) for calcium; 5.02 million y (95% UI: 1.07, 11.0) and $18.1 billion (95$1.34 billion (95% UI: -1.10, 3.10 billion) for BEP supplementation. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa tended to have the largest estimated regional gains in school years for scaling up each intervention due to the large population size and high burden of poor birth outcomes. Absolute income benefits for each intervention were estimated to be the largest in Latin America, where returns to education and incomes are higher relative to other regions. CONCLUSION: Increasing coverage of prenatal nutrition interventions in LMIC may lead to substantial gains in schooling and lifetime income. Decision makers should consider the potential long-term human capital returns of investments in maternal nutrition

Large gains in schooling and income are possible from minimizing adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

While the global contributions of adverse birth outcomes to child morbidity and mortality is relatively well documented, the potential long-term schooling and economic consequences of adverse birth outcomes has not been estimated. We sought to quantify the potential schooling and lifetime income gains associated with reducing the excess prevalence of adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries. We used a linear deterministic model to estimate the potential gains in schooling and lifetime income that may be achieved by attaining theoretical minimum prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth and small-for-gestational age births at the national, regional, and global levels. We estimated that potential total gains across the 121 countries from reducing low birthweight to the theoretical minimum were 20.3 million school years (95% CI: 6.0,34.8) and US$68.8 billion (95$ 41.9 billion (95% CI: 6.1,80.9) in lifetime income. The potential gains from small-for-gestational age were 39.5 million (95% CI: 19.1,60.3) school years and US$113.6 billion (95% CI: 55.5,174.2) in lifetime income gained. In summary, reducing the excess prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth or small-for-gestational age births in low- and middle-income countries may lead to substantial long-term human capital gains in addition to benefits on child mortality, growth, and development as well as on risk of non-communicable diseases in adults and other consequences across the life course

Birth weight and adult earnings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

While substantial evidence has identified low birth weight (LBW; <2500 g) as a risk factor for early life morbidity, mortality and poor childhood development, relatively little is known on the links between birth weight and economic outcomes in adulthood. The objective of this study was to systematically review the economics (EconLit) and biomedical literature (Medline) and estimate the pooled association between birth weight and adult earnings. A total of 15 studies from mostly high-income countries were included. On average, each standard deviation increase in birth weight was associated with a 2.75% increase in annual earnings [(95% CI: 1.44 to 4.07); 9 estimates]. A negative, but not statistically significant, association was found between being born LBW and earnings, compared to individuals not born LBW [mean difference: -3.41% (95% CI: -7.55 to 0.73); 7 estimates]. No studies from low-income countries were identified and all studies were observational. Overall, birth weight was consistently associated with adult earnings, and therefore, interventions that improve birth weight may provide beneficial effects on adult economic outcomes