The Gumbel hypothesis test for left censored observations using regional earthquake records as an example

Annual maximum (AM) time series are incomplete (i.e., censored) when no events are included above the assumed censoring threshold (i.e., magnitude of completeness). We introduce a distrtibutional hypothesis test for left-censored Gumbel observations based on the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC). Critical values of the PPCC hypothesis test statistic are computed from Monte-Carlo simulations and are a function of sample size, censoring level, and significance level. When applied to a global catalog of earthquake observations, the left-censored Gumbel PPCC tests are unable to reject the Gumbel hypothesis for 45 of 46 seismic regions. We apply four different field significance tests for combining individual tests into a collective hypothesis test. None of the field significance tests are able to reject the global hypothesis that AM earthquake magnitudes arise from a Gumbel distribution. Because the field significance levels are not conclusive, we also compute the likelihood that these field significance tests are unable to reject the Gumbel model when the samples arise from a more complex distributional alternative. A power study documents that the censored Gumbel PPCC test is unable to reject some important and viable Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) alternatives. Thus, we cannot rule out the possibility that the global AM earthquake time series could arise from a GEV distribution with a finite upper bound, also known as a reverse Weibull distribution. Our power study also indicates that the binomial and uniform field significance tests are substantially more powerful than the more commonly used Bonferonni and false discovery rate multiple comparison procedures

Spin-ice physics in cadmium cyanide

Spin-ices are frustrated magnets that support a particularly rich variety of emergent physics. Typically, it is the interplay of magnetic dipole interactions, spin anisotropy, and geometric frustration on the pyrochlore lattice that drives spin-ice formation. The relevant physics occurs at temperatures commensurate with the magnetic interaction strength, which for most systems is 1–5 K. Here, we show that non-magnetic cadmium cyanide, Cd(CN)2, exhibits analogous behaviour to magnetic spin-ices, but does so on a temperature scale that is nearly two orders of magnitude greater. The electric dipole moments of cyanide ions in Cd(CN)2 assume the role of magnetic pseudospins, with the difference in energy scale reflecting the increased strength of electric vs magnetic dipolar interactions. As a result, spin-ice physics influences the structural behaviour of Cd(CN)2 even at room temperature.ISSN:2041-172

Community-Based Field Experiences in Teacher Education: Possibilities for a pedagogical third space

This is the author's final draft. The published version may be found at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10476210.2011.641528The present article discusses the importance of community-based field experiences as a feature of teacher education programs. Through a qualitative case study, prospective teachers’ work with homeless youth in an after-school initiative is presented. Framing community-based field experiences in teacher education through “third space” theory, the article discusses the value that such experiences have for prospective teachers’ learning. The goals of the article align with the commitment to preparing a future teaching force for the diverse educational settings that they will encounter in the twenty-first century

Site response at Treasure and Yerba Buena Islands, California

A variety of methods are utilized to reinvestigate the physical relationship between the seismic response of Treasure Island (TI) and Yerba Buena Island (YBI) in California. These islands are a soil (TI) and rock (YBI) site pair separated by 2 kin. The site pair has been used previously by researchers to identify soil response to earthquake shaking. Linear regime ground motions (M(W)4.0-M(W)4.6 and PGA: 0.014-0.017 g) recorded in the TI vertical array indicate a coherent wavefield in the sediments and an incoherence between the rock and sediments. Our analyses show that the greatest change in the wavefield occurred between the rock and soil layers, corresponding to a significant impedance contrast. The waveforms change very little as they propagate through the sediments, indicating that the site response is a cumulative effect of the entire soil structure and not a result of wave propagation within individual soil layers. In order to highlight the complexity of the site response, correlation analysis was used to demonstrate that the rock and soil ground motions were not highly coherent between the two sites. YBI was, therefore, shown to be an inappropriate reference site for TI. One-dimensional (1D) vertical wave propagation and inverse techniques were used to differentiate between 1D site response and more complex site behavior. Both 1D methods (vertical wave propagation and inverse transfer functions) proved incapable of capturing the site response at TI beyond the initial four seconds of motion. Finite difference waveform modeling, based on a two-dimensional velocity structure of the northern San Francisco Bay was needed to explain the linear site response at TI as horizontally propagating surface waves trapped in the bay sediments. A simplified velocity structure for the San Francisco Bay including a single 100 m basin layer (constant shear-wave velocity of 400 m/s) over a 1.5 km/s layer of Franciscan bedrock was able to trap energy in the basin and produce surface waveform ringing similar to that observed in the TI data. Due to surface waves propagating in the San Francisco Bay sediments, any.1D model will not fully characterize site response at TI. All 1D models will fail to produce the late arriving energy observed in the ground motions

Psychrophiles et thermophiles : un problème d’enzyme

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