Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Silencing of Vlaro2 for chorismate synthase revealed that the phytopathogen Verticillium longisporum induces the cross-pathway control in the xylem

The first leaky auxotrophic mutant for aromatic amino acids of the near-diploid fungal plant pathogen Verticillium longisporum (VL) has been generated. VL enters its host Brassica napus through the roots and colonizes the xylem vessels. The xylem contains little nutrients including low concentrations of amino acids. We isolated the gene Vlaro2 encoding chorismate synthase by complementation of the corresponding yeast mutant strain. Chorismate synthase produces the first branch point intermediate of aromatic amino acid biosynthesis. A novel RNA-mediated gene silencing method reduced gene expression of both isogenes by 80% and resulted in a bradytrophic mutant, which is a leaky auxotroph due to impaired expression of chorismate synthase. In contrast to the wild type, silencing resulted in increased expression of the cross-pathway regulatory gene VlcpcA (similar to cpcA/GCN4) during saprotrophic life. The mutant fungus is still able to infect the host plant B. napus and the model Arabidopsis thaliana with reduced efficiency. VlcpcA expression is increased in planta in the mutant and the wild-type fungus. We assume that xylem colonization requires induction of the cross-pathway control, presumably because the fungus has to overcome imbalanced amino acid supply in the xylem