Can biological components predict short-term evolution in Autism Spectrum Disorders? A proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND:The clinical and pathogenetic heterogeneity of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) limits our ability to predict its short- and long-term evolution. Aim of this naturalistic study was to observe the clinical evolution of very young children with ASD for 12 months after first diagnosis, in order to identify those children who might develop a more positive trajectory and understand how a wide range of biological, clinical and familial factors can influence prognosis. METHODS: Ninety-two children were characterized in terms of family history, prenatal and perinatal variables, and clinical conditions. The sample was divided into four subgroups based on the association of 22 biological, clinical and family history variables. Developmental Quotient (DQ), determined using the Psychoeducational Profile Revised (PEP-R), and symptoms severity, measured by means of the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS), were evaluated at baseline (T0) and after one year (T1), while receiving treatment as usual. Changes in DQ and ADOS between baseline and follow-up and differences in the short-term evolution of the four subgroups were analyzed. RESULTS: At T1, 55.4 % of the children demonstrated some gains either of autistic symptomatology or of developmental skills. Mean ADOS score was 13.63 ± 3.67 at T0 and 10.85 ± 4.10 at T1 and mean DQ was 0.64 ± 0.14 at T0 and 0.66 ± 0.15 at T1. At follow-up, 33.7 % of the children showed an improvement in DQ and 37 % presented a less severe symptomatology, measured by means of ADOS. Overall, 15.2 % of the sample displayed major improvements both on developmental quotient and ADOS severity score; these children presented less EEG abnormalities and familial psychiatric disorders. The four subgroups, based on biological, clinical and familial variables, showed differing trends in terms of evolution. CONCLUSIONS: Categorizing very young children with ASD in terms of biological, clinical and familial variables can be instrumental in predicting short-term evolution. This exploratory study highlights the importance of a precise characterization and thorough analysis of interactions among biological and clinical variables, in order to predict the developmental evolution in children with ASD

Randomized Seeding of Orographic Cumuli, 1957: Part II

This report is one of a series dealing with a research program carried out jointly by the University of Chicago and the University of Arizona.During July and August 1957, orographic cumuli over the Santa Catalina Mountains of southeastern Arizona were seeded from an airplane with silver iodide. The experimental design of the program involved the randomized seeding by pairs of days; one of two days with suitable clouds was seeded on a random basis. On seven pairs of days, observations were made of the cumuli with a pair of K-17 cameras on a 1.3 mi baseleg. At the same time, radar observations were made with a 3-cm vertically-scanning radar set. On the basis of the analysis of the camera and radar observations an investigation has been made of the occurrence of precipitation as a function of cloud size and temperature. It was found that there is a large variability in cloud behavior from year to year. Natural clouds in the arid southwest do not produce precipitation until their vertical thicknesses are of the order of at least 8 to 10,000 feet. From a comparison of seeded and non-seeded clouds it appears that the silver iodide particles may have produced changes in the precipitation formation mechanisms in orographic cumuli.The research reported in this report was sponsored by various agencies: The National Science Foundation under Grant No. NSF-G4175 to the University of Chicago; University of Arizona; Geophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center under Contract No. AF 19(604 )-1388.This title from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact [email protected]