Indonesian foreign policy under President Jokowi

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Aaron L. Connelly previews the likely direction of Indonesian foreign policy under President-elect Joko \u27Jokowi\u27 Widodo, highlighting major issues and profiling key advisers. Key findings: Jokowi will leave foreign policy-making to key advisers, creating greater opportunities for competition over policy between the institutions those advisers lead. This competition could make it more difficult for Indonesian foreign policy-makers to define a clear position on key issues. Amidst this greater turbidity, Indonesian leadership in regional affairs could take a hit. Jokowi’s closest advisers are sophisticated and internationalist, but other voices could push Indonesian foreign policy toward more nationalist positions at the margins, impacting on Indonesian relations with Australia

Supersymmetric quantum mechanics and the Korteweg-de Vries hierarchy

The connection between supersymmetric quantum mechanics and the Korteweg- de Vries (KdV) equation is discussed, with particular emphasis on the KdV conservation laws. It is shown that supersymmetric quantum mechanics aids in the derivation of the conservation laws, and gives some insight into the Miura transformation that converts the KdV equation into the modified KdV equation. The construction of the $\tau$-function by means of supersymmetric quantum mechanics is discussed.Comment: 16 pages, latex, EFI 93/2

Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes via the R Package pomp

Partially observed Markov process (POMP) models, also known as hidden Markov models or state space models, are ubiquitous tools for time series analysis. The R package pomp provides a very flexible framework for Monte Carlo statistical investigations using nonlinear, non-Gaussian POMP models. A range of modern statistical methods for POMP models have been implemented in this framework including sequential Monte Carlo, iterated filtering, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, approximate Bayesian computation, maximum synthetic likelihood estimation, nonlinear forecasting, and trajectory matching. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of these methodologies using some simple toy problems. We also illustrate the specification of more complex POMP models, using a nonlinear epidemiological model with a discrete population, seasonality, and extra-demographic stochasticity. We discuss the specification of user-defined models and the development of additional methods within the programming environment provided by pomp.Comment: In press at the Journal of Statistical Software. A version of this paper is provided at the pomp package website: http://kingaa.github.io/pom

A Note on Intersecting and Fluctuating Solitons in 4D Noncommutative Field Theory

We examine the intersections, fluctuations and deformations of codimension two solitons in field theory on noncommutative $R^4$, in the limit of large noncommutativity. We find that holomorphic deformations are zero modes of flat branes, and we show that there is a zero mode localized at the intersection of two solitons.Comment: 19pp LaTeX, refs adde

Observation and numerical simulation of a convective initiation during COHMEX

Under a synoptically undisturbed condition, a dual-peak convective lifecycle was observed with the COoperative Huntsville Meteorological EXperiment (COHMEX) observational network over a 24-hour period. The lifecycle included a multicell storm, which lasted about 6 hours, produced a peak rainrate exceeding 100 mm/hr, and initiated a downstream mesoscale convective system. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall of this event was the largest during the entire COHMEX. The downstream mesoscale convective system, unfortunately, was difficult to investigate quantitatively due to the lack of mesoscale observations. The dataset collected near the time of the multicell storm evolution, including its initiation, was one of the best datasets of COHMEX. In this study, the initiation of this multicell storm is chosen as the target of the numerical simulations