144 research outputs found
Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian Elderly
Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future health status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since health status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canadaâs National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new health status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by health status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly.Microsimulation, Elderly population, Aging, LifePaths, Health, Canada
Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Disability Status of Canadian Elderly
Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future disability status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since disability status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canadaâs National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new disability status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by disability status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly.Microsimulation, Elderly population, Aging, LifePaths, Health, Disability, Canada
Le vieillissement des populations : incontournable certes⊠mais un plus, sâil est gĂ©rĂ© dans un esprit dâĂ©thique intergĂ©nĂ©rationnelle
Le vieillissement des individus, ainsi que celui des populations, doit ĂȘtre vu comme un phĂ©nomĂšne trĂšs positif. LâarrivĂ©e des baby-boomers dans les Ăąges de la retraite et de la vieillesse devra cependant ĂȘtre bien prise en main pour Ă©viter des dĂ©rapages. Ă partir de lâexemple du QuĂ©bec, on dĂ©crira comment faire pour Ă©viter certains effets pervers de lâĂtat providence face Ă une Ă©volution dĂ©mographique non envisagĂ©e lors de son Ă©tablissement. Il y a donc lieu de revoir les modalitĂ©s de nos programmes sociaux de santĂ© et de retraite pour faciliter une gĂ©rance de la vie en sociĂ©tĂ© qui soit Ă©quitable pour toutes les gĂ©nĂ©rations.The aging of individuals, like that of populations, is a positive thing. Nonetheless, baby boomersâ move into retirement and old age will have to be managed carefully and appropriately. Taking Quebec as an example, we describe how certain possible perverse effects of the welfare state can be avoided by dealing with demographic changes not expected when it was set up. The terms and conditions of our health care and retirement programs should be reviewed so as to facilitate better social relations and ensure the situation remains equitable for all generations
The Diversification and the Privatization of the Sources of Retirement Income in Canada
Recent labour market developments in the context of population ageing have generated many changes concerning sources of retirement income. More precisely, this paper, which is based on two Statistics Canada surveys (Survey of Consumer Finances and Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics,) will look at the processes of diversification and privatisation of income sources of Canadaâs retirees during the period 1980-2002. This study has used the concept of individualized income based on the economic family in order to consider economies of scale and revenue sharing. An appropriate assessment of the composition of retirement income sources has been realized, while discerning five distinct categories: net government transfer payments, CPP/QPP benefits, private pensions, investment income and employment income. The situation of older women living alone and of older immigrants has been more carefully analyzed in order to detect some particularities among those two vulnerable groups. The results of this study demonstrate that retireesâ income composition has undergone many changes. In addition, sources of retirement income have become substantially more diversified and privatized during the period under study. These adjustments are becoming essential in western societies in order to overcome the obstacles caused by population ageing that could disrupt pension systems.Retirement, pensions, financial security, Canada
Developing New Strategies to Support Future Caregivers of the Aged in Canada: Projections of Need and their Policy Implications
Projections of future need for Canadian continuing care services typically uses current utilization patterns and population aging. Accurately assessing this need is much more complex since disability patterns among the elderly are changing and availability of caregivers is affected by changes in family structure. This paper projects annual growth rates between 2001-2031 in the need for informal and formal support among elderly Canadians and discusses the policy implications of the increasing demand for informal caregivers. Using Statistics Canada's LifePaths micro-simulation model, these projections incorporate disability rates and the potential availability of informal caregivers. The authors conclude that continued focus on family to meet the needs of elderly Canadians without increased support is not sustainable in the long term. New strategies to support Canadian caregivers are proposed and their economic feasibility in the public and private markets are evaluated.population aging, caregiving, disability, informal and formal support
La prïżœparation financiïżœre ïżœ la retraite des premiers boomers: une comparaison Quïżœbec-Ontario
Since 2006, baby-boomers are beginning to reach the age of 60. This historic milestone forecasts serious challenges for our societies. In particular, the financial security of future pensioners constitutes an important issue. The present study will attempt to assess the financial preparation for retirement of the Quebec first cohorts of baby boomers born in 1946- 1955, who will retire in the forthcoming years, by comparing their situation with their Ontarian counterparts. This study is composed of four distinct parts. First, the methodology of the study will be explained. After a literature review, some indicators will be selected to measure the financial preparation to retirement from three points of view. Thus, the objective health of the financial preparation to retirement will be analyzed by comparing Quebec and Ontario. The relative situation of the Quebec first cohorts of baby boomers, illustrated by their revenue, their housing status and their patrimony, will also be explained. The third part of the study tries to compare the first cohorts of baby boomersâ subjective health of the preparation for retirement between the two provinces, for some socioeconomic categories, by using data concerning their satisfaction and their perspectives toward this issue. Finally, this study ends with a comparison of the various strategies used by the Quebec and Ontario first cohorts of baby boomers in order to assure themselves a suitable financial security for retirement, considering the actual trends of the socioeconomic conditions. The data analyzed come from various Statistics Canada surveys. In particular, demographic census data were used for the period covering 1971-2001, as well as the Survey of Financial Security (SFS) for 1999 and General Social Survey (GSS) for 2002.Baby-boomers, retirement, financial suitability, Quebec, Ontario
Les religieuses du Canada : leur évolution numérique entre 1965 et 1980
L'enquĂȘte rĂ©alisĂ©e en 1965 par la ConfĂ©rence religieuse canadienne (section fĂ©minine) auprĂšs des communautĂ©s religieuses du pays a apportĂ© des prĂ©cisions sur une situation de fait que l'on soupçonnait dĂ©jĂ , mais dont l'ampleur et le rythme d'Ă©volution donnaient lieu Ă une marge considĂ©rable de spĂ©culations.L'analyse de ce recensement des religieuses tentait de dĂ©finir leur situation actuelle Ă partir de divers critĂšres tels que l'Ăąge, les origines familiales, les qualifications acadĂ©miques, etc. . . . De plus, Ă l'aide de quelques questions rĂ©trospectives, il fut possible d'estimer l'Ă©volution qu'a subie cette population au cours de la pĂ©riode 1940-1964, ainsi que les tendances qui se dessinent en ce qui concerne son renouvellement et sa structure future. Les deux phĂ©nomĂšnes les plus caractĂ©ristiques de la situation actuelle chez les religieuses se sont rĂ©vĂ©lĂ©s ĂȘtre le vieillissement incontestable de cette population et la baisse gĂ©nĂ©rale du recrutement, baisse qui se manifeste depuis 1940, mais qui s'est accentuĂ©e entre 1960 et 1965.2 Ă preuve ce commentaire des analystes : « Nous n'avons pu Ă©tablir de projections scientifiques â pour le problĂšme du recrutement cela est d'ailleurs difficile â mais la diminution trĂšs forte entre 1960 (1,981 entrĂ©es au noviciat) et 1964 (1,377) donne tout lieu de croire que ce phĂ©nomĂšne de baisse continuera quelques annĂ©es avant de se stabiliser ».Devant de telles conclusions, il nous a semblĂ© intĂ©ressant de tenter de tracer, Ă partir des donnĂ©es rassemblĂ©es par cette enquĂȘte, un schĂ©ma de l'Ă©volution dĂ©mographique future des religieuses canadiennes. L'entreprise n'est pas simple. Tout un ensemble de facteurs sociaux complexes et difficilement prĂ©visibles peuvent venir bouleverser nos projections, si mĂ©ticuleusement eussent-elles Ă©tĂ© prĂ©parĂ©es : c'est lĂ un risque qui menace fort souvent le dĂ©mographe qui ose prĂ©tendre soulever le voile de l'avenir. Dans le cas prĂ©sent, nous croyons ce risque raisonnable et comme pouvant ĂȘtre utile. En effet le souci de ceux qui ordonnent ces enquĂȘtes auprĂšs des membres de communautĂ©s religieuses est en gĂ©nĂ©ral de vouloir connaĂźtre non seulement le prĂ©sent mais aussi un peu l'avenir. L'analyse de l'enquĂȘte faite au Canada n'a pas Ă©tĂ© trĂšs explicite sur ce sujet. Il en est d'ailleurs de mĂȘme pour l'analyse de l'enquĂȘte qui avait Ă©tĂ© demandĂ©e par la Commission Ă©piscopale du clergĂ© et des sĂ©minaires de France. Pour ce faire, il faut la connaissance de certaines techniques de prĂ©visions dĂ©mographiques et, il faut l'admettre, un peu d'audace. Ceci dit, nous croyons valables les calculs que nous avons effectuĂ©s, calculs qui nous permettent, Ă partir de l'Ă©volution passĂ©e et de certaines hypothĂšses, d'entrevoir comment Ă©voluera la situation au cours des quinze prochaines annĂ©es. Notre but est donc d'Ă©tablir les effectifs globaux et les distributions par groupe d'Ăąges des religieuses canadiennes en 1970, 1975 et 1980, compte tenu de l'Ă©volution rĂ©cente qui s'est manifestĂ©e dans ce groupe.En analyse dĂ©mographique, toute perspective repose Ă©videmment sur l'analyse des phĂ©nomĂšnes de fĂ©conditĂ©, de mortalitĂ© et de migration de la population concernĂ©e. Le lecteur comprendra facilement que l'on doive effectuer pour le cas prĂ©sent quelques transpositions d'ordre technique: entrĂ©e en religion, mortalitĂ© et non-persĂ©vĂ©rance dans les ordres constitueront donc les trois phĂ©nomĂšnes Ă la base de nos perspectives. Avant d'analyser l'Ă©volution passĂ©e et future par rapport aux trois phĂ©nomĂšnes dĂ©crits ci-haut, nous passerons en revue quelques-uns des rĂ©sultats de l'enquĂȘte de 1965, lesquels nous permettront de connaĂźtre la situation en l'annĂ©e de base de nos perspectives
La population juive de MontrĂ©al est-elle victime d'une sĂ©grĂ©gation qu'elle se serait elle-mĂȘme imposĂ©e?
Les gïżœnïżœrations X et Y du Quïżœbec, vraiment diffïżœrentes des prïżœcïżœdentes ?
Many myths surround the Generation X members. Among them, the term "McJobs" is often used to describe the difficulties they have experienced on the labour market. It is justified to claim that they had a more complicated career path in comparison with other generations. However, what is really going on? Who are they really? This paper paints a portrait of both the Generation X, whose members were born between 1965 and 1975, and of their successors, the members of the Generation Y, who were born between 1975 and 1985. More precisely, this research will put emphasis on some highlights about the behaviour of the X and Y in Quebec contemporary society. This study will examine the themes of family, their attitude toward the labour market and saving. In order to have a better understanding of the extent of the differences observed, both groups will be compared with the baby boomers [who were divided in two subgroups, the old boomers (1945-1954) and the young boomers (1955-1964)]. The research findings coming from this analysis are numerous. We learn, among other things, that the X and the Y have fairly different behaviours than the baby boomers. Overall, these two birth cohorts had to go through a clearly less comfortable situation than the baby boomers. However, we also learn that the situation experienced by the young boomers, in some areas, is not very distant from what the Generation X is going through. However, the X will have to invest a lot in order to face retirement issues.Generation X, GenerationY, Unemployment, Demography, Savings
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