1 research outputs found
Diagnostics of Threats to Regional Fiscal Security
Π ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡ ΡΡΠΈΠ»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡ Π½Π΅Π³Π°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² Π½Π° ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ Π½Π° ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Π΅ Π³ΠΎΡΡΠ΄Π°ΡΡΡΠ²Π°, ΡΠ°ΠΊ ΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ², Π² ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, Π²ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ°Π΅Ρ Π΄ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ°ΡΠΈΡ Π΄ΠΎΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ, ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½Ρ Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π²ΡΡΠ°Π΅Ρ ΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ, ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΡΠ²Π°ΡΡΡΡ Π½Π΅Π³Π°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π½Π΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΠΈ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π·Π°ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π³ΡΠ°ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π½, Π·Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠ±ΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΉ. ΠΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π½Π΅ Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΡ, ΡΡΠ΅Π±ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π°ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ², ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ Π½Π° ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Π΅, Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ ΡΡΠ°Π±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ, ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ. Π ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΊ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠΈΡΠΌ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°, Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π° Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΠΊΠ»Π°ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΡ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΠΏΠΎ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ. ΠΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·ΠΌ Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°, ΠΏΡΠΎΠ°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΊ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ·, ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½Π° ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ 12 ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ², ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½Π°Ρ Π½Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΠΊ Π±Π°Π»Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ Π½ΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΌ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΠΌ. ΠΡΠΎΠΌΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ, Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΠΏΠ΅Π½ΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΠΎ Π·ΠΎΠ½Π°ΠΌ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»Π°Π³Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° Π±ΡΠ»Π° Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΠΎΠΌΠΈ. Π ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ Π±ΡΠ»ΠΈ Π²ΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ·Ρ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° Π² ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ, Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ, Π½Π°Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ, ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ, ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ, Π±Π°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ, ΠΊΠΎΡΠΏΠΎΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ°Ρ
. Π ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅ ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π»ΠΈΡΡ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ Π ΠΎΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ°, Π€Π΅Π΄Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ»ΡΠΆΠ±Ρ Π ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΈ, Π€Π΅Π΄Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π½Π°Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ»ΡΠΆΠ±Ρ Π ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΈ, ΠΠ°Π½ΠΊΠ° Π ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΈ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»Π°Π³Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΡΠ»ΡΠΆΠΈΡΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠΌ Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ³ΡΠΎΠ· ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΠ° Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ², ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ, ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ Π±ΡΡΡ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½Π°ΠΌΠΈ Π³ΠΎΡΡΠ΄Π°ΡΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ Π²Π»Π°ΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ½ΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ½Π³Π° ΡΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-Π±ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ².Nowadays, the influence of negative factors on the fiscal system has been strengthening at both the country and regional levels. In particular, income differentiation and fiscal capacity are increasing, inflation rate exceeds the target, negative trends of growing household debt and enterprise unprofitability are observed. Such factors are not fully considered by existing diagnostic methodologies for analysing fiscal and economic security indicators and threats. Thus, in order to adjust stabilisation decisions and implement relevant fiscal policies, it is necessary to update these approaches, especially in regions. The paper examines key definitions of threats and risks to regional fiscal security and presents the authorβs classification of threats according to the incidence. Based on the analysed approaches to threat assessment and a proposed diagnostic mechanism, the research developed a method for diagnosing threats to regional fiscal security by bringing the actual values of indicators to standardised points. In addition, to determine the danger level of threats, indicator values were distributed by security zones. The suggested methodology, which includes 12 indicators, was used to analyse the fiscal security of the Komi Republic. As a result, significant threats to the regional fiscal security were identified in the economic, budget, tax, investment, innovation, price, banking, corporate and social spheres. Baseline data were obtained from Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service of Russia, Federal Taxation Service of Russia and the Bank of Russia. The proposed methodology is an effective diagnostic tool for analysing threats to fiscal security on the basis of important regional indicators. Federal and local authorities can use this particular method for monitoring regional fiscal systems