Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Kazakhstan (1948-2013)

AbstractCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a pathogenic and often fatal arboviral disease with a distribution spanning large areas of Africa, Europe and Asia. The causative agent is a negative-sense single-stranded RNA virus classified within the Nairovirus genus of the Bunyaviridae family.Cases of CCHF have been officially recorded in Kazakhstan since the disease was first officially reported in modern medicine. Serological surveillance of human and animal populations provide evidence that the virus was perpetually circulating in a local enzoonotic cycle involving mammals, ticks and humans in the southern regions of the country. Most cases of human disease were associated with agricultural professions such as farming, shepherding and fruit-picking; the typical route of infection was via tick-bite although several cases of contact transmission associated with caring for sick patients have been documented.In total, 704 confirmed human cases of CCHF have been registered in Kazakhstan from 1948-2013 with an overall case fatality rate of 14.8% for cases with a documented outcome.The southern regions of Kazakhstan should be considered endemic for CCHF with cases reported from these territories on an annual basis. Modern diagnostic technologies allow for rapid clinical diagnosis and for surveillance studies to monitor for potential expansion in known risk areas

Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.

Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.