Mitigation Measures of Flood and Drought for Ayeyarwady Basin

This research represents about the mitigation measures of flood and drought for Ayeyarwady Basin. The objective of this study is to propose the mitigation effect of flood and drought in Ayeyarwady Basin. In this study, flood vulnerable areas for Ayeyarwady Basin are assessed by using Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model, GIS and Remote Sensing technique. Landuse classification map (2014 year) is extracted from Google Earth Engine based on land satellite LANDSAT-7 data and then Curve Number (CN) grid map is developed. Landuse classification in year 2014, the closed forest is found as about 48.9% and deciduous forest is about 26.3% of Ayeyarwady Basin. After delineating the flood plain area in HEC-RAS, the flood map for Ayeyarwady basin is developed by using Arc-GIS. The flood area by using 2014 landuse classification is 10414.18 km2 and the flooded regions are part of Mandalay, Sagaing, Monywa, Pakokku, Magway, Yaynanchaung and Thayet. According to the landuse classification in 2000 year, closed forest is 62.8% and deciduous forest is 28.05%. The flooded area is about 7081.03 km2. According to these scenarios, it is found that flooded area can be reduced about 32% due to forestation. For the spatial characterization of drought, Spatial interpolation (Spline) method in Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to generate drought severity maps. According to the drought severity map and severity values, Aunglan, Magway and Nyaungoo are the most severity regions and which are considered as pilot regions in this study. Two scenarios of rainwater harvesting are proposed to mitigate the drought severity area. In the first scenario, rainwater is collected from the roof top and stored in the storage tank.The average maximum monthly collected rainwater  per house hold for three types of roofing area are 4.423 m3, 13.539 m3 and 27.214 m3 respectively. The second scenario is to recharge the rainwater volume directly over the different types of landuse area and soil group. As a result, the recharge volume for Aunglan, Magway and Nyaungoo regions are 530.85 Mm3/year, 219.312 Mm3/year and 224.863 Mm3/year respectively. Finally, these scenarios are proposed to mitigate the effect of flood and drought in Ayeyarwady Basin

High rate of virological failure and low rate of switching to second-line treatment among adolescents and adults living with HIV on first-line ART in Myanmar, 2005-2015.

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with HIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Myanmar has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This study aimed to estimate rates of virological failure on first-line ART and switching to second-line ART due to treatment failure at the Integrated HIV Care program (IHC). METHODS: Routinely collected data of all adolescent and adult patients living with HIV who were initiated on first-line ART at IHC between 2005 and 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative hazard of virological failure on first-line ART and switching to second-line ART were estimated. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using the Cox regression model to identify risk factors associated with the two outcomes. RESULTS: Of 23,248 adults and adolescents, 7,888 (34%) were tested for HIV viral load. The incidence rate of virological failure among those tested was 3.2 per 100 person-years follow-up and the rate of switching to second-line ART among all patients was 1.4 per 100 person-years follow-up. Factors associated with virological failure included: being adolescent; being lost to follow-up at least once; having WHO stage 3 and 4 at ART initiation; and having taken first-line ART elsewhere before coming to IHC. Of the 1032 patients who met virological failure criteria, 762 (74%) switched to second-line ART. CONCLUSIONS: We found high rates of virological failure among one third of patients in the cohort who were tested for viral load. Of those failing virologically on first-line ART, about one quarter were not switched to second-line ART. Routine viral load monitoring, especially for those identified as having a higher risk of treatment failure, should be considered in this setting to detect all patients failing on first-line ART. Strategies also need to be put in place to prevent treatment failure and to treat more of those patients who are actually failing

Long-term outcomes of second-line antiretroviral treatment in an adult and adolescent cohort in Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Myanmar has a high burden of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) has been available since 2008 in the public health sector. However, there have been no published data about the outcomes of such patients until now. OBJECTIVE: To assess the treatment and programmatic outcomes and factors associated with unfavorable outcomes (treatment failure, death and loss to follow-up from care) among people living with HIV (aged ≥ 10 years) receiving protease inhibitor-based second-line ART under the Integrated HIV Care Program in Myanmar between October 2008 and June 2015. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected program data. RESULTS: Of 824 adults and adolescents on second-line ART, 52 patients received viral load testing and 19 patients were diagnosed with virological failure. However, their treatment was not modified. At the end of a total follow-up duration of 7 years, 88 (11%) patients died, 35 (4%) were lost to follow-up, 21 (2%) were transferred out to other health facilities and 680 (83%) were still under care. The incidence rate of unfavorable outcomes was 7.9 patients per 100 person years follow-up. Patients with a history of injecting drug use, with a history of lost to follow-up, with a higher baseline viral load and who had received didanosine and abacavir had a higher risk of unfavorable outcomes. Patients with higher baseline C4 counts, those having taken first-line ART at a private clinic, receiving ART at decentralized sites and taking zidovudine and lamivudine had a lower risk of unfavorable outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes of patients on second-line ART were relatively good in this cohort. Virological failure was relatively low, possibly because of lack of viral load testing. No patient who failed on second-line ART was switched to third-line treatment. The National HIV/AIDS Program should consider making routine viral load monitoring and third-line ART drugs available after a careful cost-benefit analysis

Experiences from the pilot implementation of the Package of Essential Non-communicable Disease Interventions (PEN) in Myanmar, 2017-18: A mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Myanmar adopted the World Health Organization (WHO) Package for Essential Non-Communicable Disease Interventions (PEN) in 20 pilot townships in 2017. This study was conducted to assess the implementation of PEN, its effectiveness and understand the facilitators and barriers in its implementation. METHODS:Mixed methods design involving a quantitative component (retrospective study analysing both aggregate and individual patient data from PEN project records; cross-sectional facility survey using a structured checklist) and a descriptive qualitative component. RESULTS:A total of 152,446 individuals were screened between May 2017-December 2018 comprising of current smokers (17.5%), tobacco chewers (26.3%), Body Mass Index ≥25 kg/m2 (30.6%), raised blood pressure i.e. ≥ 140/90 mmHg (35.2%) and raised blood sugar i.e. Random Blood Sugar >200 mg/dl, Fasting Blood Sugar >126 mg/dl (17.1%). Nearly 14.8% of those screened had Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score ≥20%, 34.6% had CVD risk not recorded. Of 663 patients registered with diabetes and/or hypertension in 05 townships, 27 (4.1%) patients made three follow-up visits after the baseline visit, of whom, CVD risk assessment, systolic blood pressure and blood sugar measurement was done in all visits in 89.0%, 100.0% and 78.0% of cases respectively. Health facility assessment showed 64% of the sanctioned posts were filled; 90% of those appointed been trained in PEN; key essential medicines for PEN were available in half of the facilities surveyed. Confidence of the health care staff in managing common NCD and perceived benefits of the project were some of the strengths. CONCLUSION:High loss to follow up, poor recording of CVD risk score, lack of essential medicines and equipments were the key challenges identified that need to be addressed before further expansion of PEN project to other townships

Alarming attrition rates among HIV-infected individuals in pre-antiretroviral therapy care in Myanmar, 2011–2014

Background: High retention rates have been documented among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Myanmar. However, there is no information on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals in care before initiation of ART (pre-ART care). We assessed attrition (loss-to-follow-up [LTFU] and death) rates among HIV-infected individuals in pre-ART care and their associated factors over a 4-year period. Design: In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted routinely collected data of HIV-infected adults (>15 years old) entering pre-ART care (June 2011–June 2014) as part of an Integrated HIV Care (IHC) programme, Myanmar. Attrition rates per 100 person-years and cumulative incidence of attrition were calculated. Factors associated with attrition were examined by calculating hazard ratios (HRs). Results: Of 18,037 HIV-infected adults enrolled in the IHC programme, 11,464 (63%) entered pre-ART care (60% men, mean age 37 years, median cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cell count 160 cells/µL). Of the 11,464 eligible participants, 3,712 (32%) underwent attrition of which 43% were due to deaths and 57% were due to LTFU. The attrition rate was 78 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 75–80). The cumulative incidence of attrition was 70% at the end of a 4-year follow-up, of which nearly 90% occurred in the first 6 months. Male sex (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.4–1.6), WHO clinical Stage 3 and 4, CD4 count <200 cells/µL, abnormal BMI, and anaemia were statistically significant predictors of attrition. Conclusions: Pre-ART care attrition among persons living with HIV in Myanmar was alarmingly high – with most attrition occurring within the first 6 months. Strategies aimed at improving early HIV diagnosis and initiation of ART are needed. Suggestions include comprehensive nutrition support and intensified monitoring to prevent pre-ART care attrition by tracking patients who do not return for pre-ART care appointments. It is high time that Myanmar moves towards a ‘test and treat’ approach and ultimately eliminates the need for pre-ART care

Early infant diagnosis of HIV in Myanmar: call for innovative interventions to improve uptake and reduce turnaround time

Background: In collaboration with the national AIDS program, early infant diagnosis (EID) is implemented by Integrated HIV Care (IHC) program through its anti-retroviral therapy (ART) centers across 10 cities in five states and regions of Myanmar. Blood samples from the ART centers are sent using public transport to a centralized PCR facility. Objectives: Among HIV-exposed babies 8 weeks of age) or no blood sample collection for EID. Methods: Retrospective cohort study involving record review. A predictive poisson regression model with robust variance estimates was fitted for risk factors of delayed or no sample collection. Results: Of 1349 babies, 523 (39%) of the babies’ mothers were on ART before pregnancy. Timely uptake of EID (<8 weeks of age) was 47% (633/1349); sample collection was delayed in 27% (367/1349) and not done in 26% (349/1349) babies. Among samples collected (n = 1000), 667 results were received by the mother; 52 (5%) were HIV-infected; among them 42 (81%) were initiated on ART. Median (IQR) turnaround time from sample collection to result receipt by mother and time to initiate ART from result receipt by mother was 7 (4,12) and 8.5 (6,16) weeks, respectively. Mothers not on ART before pregnancy and distance of ART center from PCR facility (more than 128 km) were the risk factors of delayed or no sample collection. Conclusions: Improving provision of ART to mothers (through universal ‘test and treat’) is urgently required, which has the potential to improve the timely uptake of EID as well. Interventions to reduce turnaround times, like point of care EID testing and/or systematic use of mobile technology to communicate results, are needed

Attrition among HIV positive children enrolled under integrated HIV care programme in Myanmar: 12 years cohort analysis

Background: In Myanmar, HIV seropositive children are being enrolled in an integrated HIV care (IHC) Program for HIV treatment and care since 2005. Objectives: To assess the: (a) attrition (death or loss-to-follow-up) rates among children (aged ≥ 18 months to < 15 years) enrolled into the programme before and after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) (pre-ART and ART periods); (b) demographic and clinical factors associated with attrition during these two periods. Methods: Children enrolled in IHC Programme and their status (death, lost to follow-up, regular follow-up or transferred out) was assessed as on 30 June 2017. Attrition rates (per 100 person-years) at pre – ART and ART periods were calculated and the association between demographic and clinical characteristics with attrition was assessed using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Among 2,736 children enrolled, pre-ART attrition rate was 19 per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 17–21) and ART attrition rate was 4 per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 3–4) with higher levels during the initial few months of enrolment. The 36-month retention rates during pre-ART period was 75% (95% CI: 72–78) and during ART period was 87% (95% CI: 86–88). The children ‘at enrolment’ with relatively lower levels of haemoglobin, immune deficiency, underweight for age, higher WHO clinical stages, presence of hepatitis B infection had higher hazards of attrition in both periods. Conclusion: The attrition rates are high particularly among children with relatively poorer clinical, nutritional profiles at enrolment. The study suggests the urgent need for improving adherence counselling especially during the initial few months of enrolment and early ART initiation

Factors associated with long turnaround time for early infant diagnosis of HIV in Myanmar

Background: A previous review of early infant diagnosis (EID) using polymerase chain reaction technology (PCR) under integrated HIV care (IHC) program in Myanmar revealed a low uptake of timely (within 6 to 8 weeks of babies’ age) EID and a long turnaround time (TAT) of receiving results. Objective: This study aimed to determine the proportion and factors associated with the composite outcome of a long TAT (≥7 weeks; from sample collection to receipt of result by mother) or nonreceipt of result among HIV-exposed babies whose blood samples were collected for PCR at <9 months of age under the IHC program, Myanmar (2013–15). Methods: Cohort study involving record review of routinely collected data. A predictive Poisson regression model with robust variance estimates was fitted for risk factors of long TAT or nonreceipt of result. Results: Blood samples of 1 000 babies were collected; among them, long TAT or nonreceipt of results was seen in 690 (69%), and this was more than 50% across all subgroups. Babies with a mother’s CD4 count of 100–350 cells/mm3 at enrollment [adjusted RR (0.95 confidence intervals, CI): 0.8 (0.7, 0.9)] had a 20% lower risk of long TAT or nonreceipt of results when compared with ≥350 cells/mm3. Distance between ART center and PCR facility ≥105 km [adjusted RR (0.95 CI): 1.2 (1.1, 1.4)], when compared with <105 km, was associated with 20% higher risk of long TAT or nonreceipt of results. Conclusions: The proportion of babies with long TAT or nonreceipt of result by the mother was high. Point-of-care testing for EID may reduce TAT/nonreceipt of results by the mother. Health system, laboratory, and logistic factors such as sample transportation, laboratory procedures, and result dispatching associated with long TAT should be further explored

Programmatic definitions.

<p>Programmatic definitions.</p

Cascade of PMTCT program in Central Women Hospital, Mandalay, Myanmar.

<p>HIV; ^<b>¶</b>Human Immunodeficiency virus. *babies less than 9 months of age who were under regular follow-up and had not tested for HIV.</p