Narrow money demand in Indonesia and in other transitional economies – model selection and forecasting

Purpose: This paper aims to incorporate model uncertainty in variable selection and forecasting in the monetarist money demand model and check whether the emerging economies such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, India, Republic of South Africa, and Indonesia follow this model in the long-run. The case of the United Kingdom serves as a benchmark for the study. Design/Methodology/Approach: In dynamic econometric modeling, the number of potential explanatory variables increases rapidly, and model uncertainty grows very fast. Consequently, empirical modeling of money demand needs a comprehensive strategy for model selection and forecasting. We use Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) as an appropriate model reduction strategy. The monetary model serves as the theoretical basis for empirical equilibrium error-correction models (EqCM) and employing the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach for variable and model selection and forecasting. Findings: Four theoretical and competitive model specifications are proposed and empirically tested. We found that monetary systems in Indonesia and other analyzed economies are both stable and theory consistent. The forecasts generated for Indonesia are accurate. The robustness of the model selection based on the BACE procedure was strongly confirmed. Practical Implications: The proposed procedure is valid for practical application, particularly in dynamic model selection and forecasting. Originality/Value: The novelty of this research lies in employing the BACE approach to model the demand for money with the equilibrium error correction (EqCM) mechanism.peer-reviewe

Polish Society of Gynecology and Obstetrics statement on safety measures and performance of ultrasound examinations in obstetrics and gynecology during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

We present recommendations on performance and safety measures of ultrasound examinations in obstetrics and gynecologyduring the SARS COV-2 pandemic. The statement was prepared based on the current knowledge on the coronavirusby the Ultrasound Section of the Polish Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology. It has to be noted that the presented guidanceis based on limited evidence and is primarily based on experiences published by authors from areas most affected bythe virus thus far, such as China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Italy. We realize that the pandemic situation is very dynamic.New data is published every day. Despite the imposed limitations related to the necessity of social distancing, it is crucialto remember that providing optimal care in safe conditions should remain the primary goal of healthcare providers. Weplan to update the current guidelines as the situation develops

THE ISSUE. Traffic, Health, Environment; Intelligent Solutions Sustaining Urban Economies.

THE ISSUE is a project within the Regions of Knowledge scheme funded through the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme. THE ISSUE focuses on Traffic, Health and Environment to achieve Intelligent Solutions for Sustaining Urban Economies by bringing together innovative research-driven clusters to coordinate European research and technology development in six areas. These areas are Intelligent Transportation Systems; transport impacts on urban mobility; transport greening; intermodal regional transport; safety and security of citizens; and associated economic, health and environmental impacts. THE ISSUE project particularly addresses the use of space technologies from satellite remote sensing and navigation, as well as GIS and computer intelligence technologies in transport-related sectors. This paper looks into the general presentation of the project and the first results.EU FP7 Regions Of Knowledge projec

Intelligent Solutions Sustaining Urban Economies – Master Classes case study

This is an output from the FP7 Regions of Knowledge project THE-ISSUE. This project is developing an EU network in the field of Intelligent Transport Systems that deliver on multiple policy objectives, Transport Health & the Environment. More can be found at www.theissue.euTHE ISSUE is a project within the Regions of Knowledge scheme funded through the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme. THE ISSUE focuses on traffic, health and the environment to achieve intelligent solutions for sustaining urban economies by bringing together innovative research-driven clusters to coordinate European research and technology development in six areas. These comprise ITS; transport impacts on urban mobility; transport greening; intermodal regional transport; safety and security of citizens; and associated economic, health and environmental impacts. THE ISSUE project particularly addresses the use of space technologies from satellite remote sensing and navigation, as well as GIS and computer intelligence technologies in transport-related sectors. This paper specifically looks into the planned Master Classes program. THE ISSUE project comprises research clusters from the East Midlands Region in the UK, the Midi-Pyrenees and Aquitaine Regions in France, the Molise Region in Italy and the Mazovia Region in Poland. Each region has set up a three-way partnership between regional authorities, academic partners, and industry contributors working to draw together the industry and academic strengths in the regions and connect the research with the needs of managing traffic, transport, and air quality that the regional bodies are responsible for. The three-year project is supporting scientists, engineers and development agencies from the different regions to work together, using the latest space and information technologies, to develop more effective methods of easing road congestion and improving the urban environment. As part of THE ISSUE project "Master Class" knowledge exchange programmes will be developed using material from the earlier review of applicable technology and expertise within the THE ISSUE consortium. Two variants will be developed, one focussing on senior management and policy/strategy makers and the other with a focus on technical awareness and implementation. The "Master Classes" will be trailed and delivered through workshops for core partners and associates. The case studies, which will be part of the Master Classes, will present information on how cartography, GPS&GIS database applications, navigation and remote sensing are used in urban transport, health and air quality related data. The project is bringing together scientists, engineers, development agencies and bodies responsible for managing traffic, transport and air quality in four European regional clusters using advanced space and information technologies, to develop the most effective methods of easing urban congestion and improving the impact of transport on the local economy, urban environment, climate change and the health of citizens. These Master Classes materials will contribute for the exchange of knowledge and expertise in sustainable traffic solutions between academic, business and public sector partners within and across the five European regions.EU FP

Intrauterine deaths — an unsolved problem in Polish perinatology

Objectives: The Polish criteria for “intrauterine death” include fetal demise after 22 weeks of gestation, weighing > 500 g and body length at least 25 cm, when the gestational age is unknown. The rate of fetal death in Poland in 2015 is 3:10,000. In 2020, 1,231 stillbirths were registered. Material and methods: An analysis using 142,662 births in the period between 2015–2020 in 11 living in Poland. The first subgroup was admitted as patients > 22 to the beginning of the 30th week of pregnancy (n = 229), and the second from the 30th week of pregnancy inclusively (n = 179). In the case of women from both subgroups, there was a risk of preterm delivery close to hospitalization. Results: It was found that stillbirth in 41% of women in the first pregnancy. For the patient, stillbirth was also the first in his life. The average stillbirth weight was 1487 g, the average body length was 40 cm. Among fetuses up to 30 weeks, male fetuses are born more often, in subgroup II, the sex of the child was usually female. Most fetal deaths occur in mothers < 15 and > 45 years of age. Conclusions: According to the Polish results of the origin of full-term fetuses > 30 weeks of gestation for death in the concomitant antenatal, such as placental-umbilical and fetal hypoxia, acute intrapartum effects rarely, and moreover < 30 Hbd fetal growth restriction (FGR), occurring placental-umbilical, acute intrapartum often

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Response to the slug injection of a tracer-a large-scale experiment in a natural river

A unique, large-scale tracer test performed along a 90-km reach of a natural river is presented. This method was crucial for evaluating the impact of a retention reservoir on protected areas of the river downstream, and to assess the threats due to potentially catastrophic releases of toxic substances into that river. The response to the slug injection of a soluble tracer is assumed to imitate the characteristics of a soluble pollutant, so an understanding of how tracers mix and disperse in a stream is essential to understanding the processes of pollution transport. The procedure applied during this experiment consisted of the instantaneous injection of a known quantity of Rhodamine WT into the stream and the determination of the temporal variation in concentration of the tracer at sites as it moved downstream. The results were analysed from the perspective of a transient storage model. Relevant model parameters were evaluated by fitting the computed breakthrough curves to the observed ones on a reach-by-reach basis