Added value of ovarian reserve testing on patient characteristics in the prediction of ovarian response and ongoing pregnancy: an individual patient data approach

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND Although ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) are frequently used prior to IVF treatment for outcome prediction, their added predictive value is unclear. We assessed the added value of ORTs to patient characteristics in the prediction of IVF outcome. METHODS An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis from published studies was performed. Studies on FSH, anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) or antral follicle count (AFC) in women undergoing IVF were identified and authors were contacted. Using random intercept logistic regression models, we estimated the added predictive value of ORTs for poor response and ongoing pregnancy after IVF, relative to patient characteristics. RESULTS We were able to collect 28 study databases, comprising 5705 women undergoing IVF. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for female age in predicting poor response was 0.61. AFC and AMH each significantly improved the model fit (P-value <0.001). Moreover, almost a similar accuracy was reached using AMH or AFC alone (AUC 0.78 and 0.76, respectively). Combining the two tests, however, did not improve prediction (AUC 0.80, P = 0.19) of poor response. In predicting ongoing pregnancy after IVF, age was the best single predictor (AUC 0.57), and none of the ORTs added any value. CONCLUSIONS This IPD meta-analysis demonstrates that AFC and AMH clearly add to age in predicting poor response. As single tests, AFC and AMH both fully cover the prediction of poor ovarian response. In contrast, none of the ORTs add any information to the limited capacity of female age to predict ongoing pregnancy after IVF. The clinical usefulness of ORTs prior to IVF will be limited to the prediction of ovarian response

Prediction of an excessive response in in vitro fertilization from patient characteristics and ovarian reserve tests and comparison in subgroups: An individual patient data meta-analysis

Objective: To evaluate whether ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) add prognostic value to patient characteristics, such as female age, in the prediction of excessive response to ovarian hyperstimulation in patients undergoing IVF, and whether their performance differs across clinical subgroups. Design: Authors of studies reporting on basal FSH, antimüllerian hormone (AMH), or antral follicle count (AFC) in relation to ovarian response to ovarian hyperstimulation were invited to share original data. Random intercept logistic regression models were used to estimate added value of ORTs on patient characteristics, while accounting for between-study heterogeneity. Receiver operating characteristic regression analyses were performed to study the effect of patient characteristics on ORT accuracy. Setting: In vitro fertilization clinics. Patient(s): A total of 4,786 women for the main analysis, with a subgroup of 1,023 women with information on all three ORTs. Intervention(s): None. Main Outcome Measure(s): Excessive response prediction. Result(s): We included 57 studies reporting on 32 databases. Female age had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 for excessive response prediction. Antral follicle count and AMH significantly added prognostic value to this. A model with female age, AFC, and AMH had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. The combination of AMH and AFC, without age, had similar accuracy. Subgroup analysis indicated that FSH performed significantly worse in predicting excessive response in higher age groups, AFC did significantly better, and AMH performed the same. Conclusion(s): We demonstrate that AFC and AMH add value to female age in the prediction of excessive response and that, for AFC and FSH, the discriminatory performance is affected by female age