On the threshold hyperbolic GARCH models

In the financial market, the volatility of financial assets plays a key role in the problem of measuring market risk in many investment decisions. Insights into economic forces that may contribute to or amplify volatility are thus important. The financial market is characterized by regime switching between phases of low volatility and phases of high volatility. Nonlinearity and long memory are two salient features of volatility. To jointly capture the features of long memory and nonlinearity, a new threshold time series model with hyperbolic generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is considered in this article. A goodness of fit test is derived to check the adequacy of the fitted model. Simulation and empirical results provide further support to the proposed model. AMS 2000 subject classifications: Primary 91B84; secondary 62M10.postprin

Effects of geographic scale on population factors in acute disease diffusion analysis

Objective To explore socio-demographic data of the population as proxies for risk factors in disease transmission modeling at different geographic scales. Methods Patient records of confirmed H1N1 influenza were analyzed at three geographic aggregation levels together with population census statistics. Results The study confirmed that four population factors were related in different degrees to disease incidence, but the results varied according to spatial resolution. The degree of association actually decreased when data of a higher spatial resolution were used. Conclusions We concluded that variables at suitable spatial resolution may be useful in improving the predictive powers of models for disease outbreaks.published_or_final_versio

Population Factors Affecting Initial Diffusion Patterns of H1N1

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An Early Warning System for Detecting H1N1 Disease Outbreak - A Spatio-temporal Approach

The outbreaks of new and emerging infectious diseases in recent decades have caused widespread social and economic disruptions in the global economy. Various guidelines for pandemic influenza planning are based upon traditional infection control, best practice and evidence. This article describes the development of an early warning system for detecting disease outbreaks in the urban setting of Hong Kong, using 216 confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza from 1 May 2009 to 20 June 2009. The prediction model uses two variables – daily influenza cases and population numbers – as input to the spatio-temporal and stochastic SEIR model to forecast impending disease cases. The fairly encouraging forecast accuracy metrics for the 1- and 2-day advance prediction suggest that the number of impending cases could be estimated with some degree of certainty. Much like a weather forecast system, the procedure combines technical and scientific skills using empirical data but the interpretation requires experience and intuitive reasoning.postprin

Antecedent Avian Immunity Limits Tangential Transmission of West Nile Virus to Humans

Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus maintained and amplified among birds and tangentially transmitted to humans and horses which may develop terminal neuroinvasive disease. Outbreaks typically have a three-year pattern of silent introduction, rapid amplification and subsidence, followed by intermittent recrudescence. Our hypothesis that amplification to outbreak levels is contingent upon antecedent seroprevalence within maintenance host populations was tested by tracking WNV transmission in Los Angeles, California from 2003 through 2011. Methods: Prevalence of antibodies against WNV was monitored weekly in House Finches and House Sparrows. Tangential or spillover transmission was measured by seroconversions in sentinel chickens and by the number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases reported to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. Results: Elevated seroprevalence in these avian populations was associated with the subsidence of outbreaks and in the antecedent dampening of amplification during succeeding years. Dilution of seroprevalence by recruitment resulted in the progressive loss of herd immunity following the 2004 outbreak, leading to recrudescence during 2008 and 2011. WNV appeared to be a significant cause of death in these avian species, because the survivorship of antibody positive birds significantly exceeded that of antibody negative birds. Cross-correlation analysis showed that seroprevalence was negatively correlated prior to the onset of human cases and then positively correlated, peaking at 4–6 weeks after the onse

Clinical significance of hepatic derangement in severe acute respiratory syndrome

Aim: Elevation of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level is commonly seen among patients suffering from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We report the progression and clinical significance of liver derangement in a large cohort of SARS patient. Methods: Serial assay of serum ALT was followed in patients who fulfilled the WHO criteria of SARS. Those with elevated ALT were compared with those with normal liver functions for clinical outcome. Serology for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was checked. Adverse outcomes were defined as oxygen desaturation, need of intensive care unit (ICU) and mechanical ventilation and death. Results: Two hundred and ninety-four patients were included in this study. Seventy (24%) patients had elevated serum ALT on admission and 204 (69%) patients had elevated ALT during the subsequent course of illness. Using peak ALT >5×ULN as a cut-off and after adjusting for potential confounding factors, the odds ratio of peak ALT >5× ULN for oxygen desaturation was 3.24 (95%CI 1.23-8.59, P = 0.018), ICU care was 3.70 (95%CI 1.38-9.89, P = 0.009), mechanical ventilation was 6.64 (95%CI 2.22-19.81, P = 0.001) and death was 7.34 (95%CI 2.28-24.89, P = 0.001). Ninety-three percent of the survived patients had ALT levels normalized or were on the improving trend during follow-up. Chronic hepatitis B was not associated with worse clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Reactive hepatitis is a common complication of SARS-coronavirus infection. Those patients with severe hepatitis had worse clinical outcome. © 2005 The WJG Press and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.published_or_final_versio

Interim estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccination against influenza-associated hospitalization in children in Hong Kong, 2015-16

From 1 September 2015 through 31 January 2016, we enrolled 2068 children 6 months to 17 years of age admitted to hospital with a febrile acute respiratory infection in our test-negative study. Information on receipt of 2015-16 northern hemisphere inactivated influenza vaccination was elicited from parents or legal guardians. Using conditional logistic regression adjusting for age and matching on calendar time, we estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization with influenza A or B to be 79.2% (95% confidence interval: 42.0%-92.4%). Annual influenza vaccination should be more widely used in children in Hong Kong. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.published_or_final_versio

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) hospitalizations in children in Hong Kong in a prolonged season, 2016/17.

Background: Influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulated for 12 consecutive months in Hong Kong in 2016-2017, peaking in late June and July 2017. The objective of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalizations in children in Hong Kong. Methods: We conducted a test-negative study between September 1 2016 and August 31 2017, enrolling children 6 months to 17 years of age hospitalized for an acute respiratory infection. Influenza was diagnosed by PCR on nasopharyngeal aspirates. Results: We enrolled 5514 children, including 3608 children between 6 months to 2 years, 1600 children 3-5 years, and 1206 children 6-17 years of age. Influenza-associated hospitalizations occurred throughout the study year but time of vaccination of these children was also wide-spread, from September 2016 to May 2017. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 39.7% (95% CI: 14.7, 57.3%) against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2). In analyses stratified by time since vaccination, the VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 52.8% (17.1%, 73.2%) within 3 months of vaccination, and 31.2% (-6.6%, 55.6%) 4-6 months after vaccination. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing hospitalizations in children in Hong Kong

Severe liver failure due to influenza A infection in a hemodialysis patient

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Nasopharyngeal carcinoma: time lapse before diagnosis and treatment

This is a descriptive study of 168 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma who were referred to public oncology departments for primary treatment between July and September 1996. The mean duration from the onset of the symptoms to histological diagnosis was 5.0 months; the duration ranged from 6.1 months (for patients presenting with nasal symptoms) to 1.8 months (for those with cranial nerve dysfunction). The mean period between the onset of symptoms and the seeking of medical advice was 2.9months. For 54% of the patients, there was a further delay of up to 2.4 months between the initial medical consultation and referral to the appropriate specialist. The majority (84%) of patients attended public institutions for histological confirmation. The mean total time taken from the onset of symptoms to the commencement of radiotherapy was 6.5 months (range, 1.3-74.0 months)---45% of the delay was attributed to the patient, 20% to initial consultations, 14% to diagnostic arrangement, and 21% to preparation for radiotherapy. Concerted efforts are needed to minimise further the time between the onset of symptoms and treatment. A substantial reduction in this delay can be achieved if both public and primary care doctors were made more aware of the significance of relevant symptoms.published_or_final_versio