Perkembangan Pasar Kopi Dunia Dan Implikasinya Bagi Indonesia

Pesatnya perkembangan produksi kopi dunia telah menyebabkan terjadinya kelebihan pasokan kopi dunia sehingga mengakibatkan persaingan antar negara produsen menjadi semakin ketat dan pada akhirnya harga cenderung tertekan. Tulisan ini bertujuan mengkaji perkembangan pasar kopi dunia agar dapat menjadi pertimbangan dalam menyusun strategi dan arah kebijakan komoditas kopi Indonesia. Pangsa pasar kopi Indonesia di pasar-pasar tradisional cenderung menurun, oleh karena itu diperlukan upaya-upaya antara lain mendiversifikasi pasar tujuan dan produk kopi serta meningkatkan ekspor kopi olaha

Perilaku Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Bawang Merah di Indonesia

EnglishThis study aims to look at price behavior and shallot market integration in Indonesia. This study uses monthly producer and consumer price data from 2011-2016. Price behavior is analyzed by coefficient of variation. Shallot market integration is analyzed by the Johansen cointegration model. The coefficient of variation of producer and consumer price increases following implementation of Horticultural Product Import Recommendation (RIPH) policy. The results of the Engle-Granger causality test show that there is no Engle-Granger causality relationship between consumer price and producer price of shallot in Indonesia, this is could be due to market power and market failure. Analysis of variance decompositions shows that DKI Jakarta market is the dominant market and referenced market in projecting of consumer price of shallot in Indonesia.IndonesianStudi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perilaku harga dan integrasi pasar bawang merah di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan data harga produsen dan harga konsumen bulanan dari 2011-2016. Perilaku harga dianalisis dengan koefisien variasi. Integrasi pasar bawang merah dianalisis dengan model kointegrasi Johansen. Koefisien variasi harga produsen dan harga konsumen meningkat sesudah diberlakukannya kebijakan Rekomendasi Impor Produk Hortikultura (RIPH). Hasil uji kausalitas Engle-Granger menunjukkan bahwa antara harga konsumen dan harga produsen bawang merah di Indonesia tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas, ini karena terjadinya market power dan kegagalan pasar. Analisis dekomposisi variasi menunjukkan bahwa pasar DKI Jakarta menjadi pasar dominan dan dapat menjadi acuan untuk proyeksi harga konsumen bawang merah di Indonesia

Pendapatan Rumah Tangga Perdesaan pada Desa Lahan Kering Berbasis Sayuran

Sektor pertanian masih merupakan sektor yang berkontribusi relatif besar terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Pada 2013 kontribusi sektor pertanian mencapai 15% terhadap PDB Indonesia dan sekitar 35,1% dari total angkatan Indonesia bekerja di sektor pertanian (World Bank, 2014). Walaupun telah banyak inovasi, sektor pertanian masih didominasi oleh petani berskala kecil dan fluktuasi output hasil panen. Pada saat bersamaan, aktivitas nonpertanian memberikan peluang untuk meningkatkan pendapatan dan pekerjaan terhadap angkatan kerja rumah tangga pertanian dan nonpertanian. Pada masa sekarang usaha tani tidak dapat menjadi sumber pendapatan utama bagi petani berkala kecil dan marginal. Di negara berkembang, penghasilan dari lahan yang dimiliki tidak dapat memenuhi kebutuhan rumah tangga (Singh et al., 2003). Selain itu, sektor pertanian tidak dapat menyerap laju pertumbuhan buruh perdesaan karena turunnya elastisitas output terhadap tenaga kerja di sektor pertanian. Peranan pekerjaan di sektor nonpertanian semakin penting karena ekonomi perdesaan saat ini menjadi lebih terdiversifikasi dan semakin meluas ke luar sektor pertanian. Kapasitas penyerapan tenaga kerja oleh sektor pertanian sudah mencapai limit atas dan tidak dapat mengakomodasi tenaga kerja perdesaan di sektor pertanian sepanjang tahun. Oleh karena itu, rumah tangga perdesaan mencari pekerjaan di luar sektor pertanian

Impact of Pakistan-Malaysia Fta on Indonesian Export of Refined Bleached Deodorized (Rbd) Olein

Indonesia needs to increase its export products in order to maintain surplus balance of payment. However, Pakistan-Malaysia FTA could make Indonesian RBD Olein in adifficult situation. This paper aims to examine the impact of a decrease in import tariff of Malaysian RBD olein in Pakistan on Indonesian export of RBD Olein using Trade analysisemploying Armington model that distinguishes the product by the country of origin. RBD olein trade model consists of four endogenous countries and one exogenous rest of theworld (ROW). The endogenous countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, the United State of America and Pakistan. The results indicate that the reduction in import tariff of Malaysian RBD Olein by 10 percent will cause the price to decrease by around 7.3 percent. The decline in Malaysian RBD olein price will increase its demand in Pakistan by around 4.4 percent. While import demand of Indonesian RBD Olein in Pakistan estimated to increase by only 0.35 percent, this is because the price of Indonesian RBD Olein rises by 0.17percent. In other word, calculated based on the average of export volume and implicit price in the period 2005-2007, import of Indonesian RBD Olein in Pakistan will only increase by around 2.1 thousand tones, or US$ 1.03 million,

Rice Market Integration in Indonesia: a Cointegration Analysis

IndonesianTulisan ini mencoba melihat integrasi pasar beras dengan menggunakan uji kointegrasi (cointegration test). Pendugaan kointegrasi pada bivariate sistem dilakukan dengan memperlakukan setiap peubah sebagai peubah endogenous dan exogenous secara bergantian (dua arah). Pada analisis ini digunakan model Engle dan Granger yang disebut Cointegrating Regression Durbin Watson (CRDW) dan Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). Selanjutnya analisis sebab-akibat Granger diterapkan pada pasar-pasar yang berkointegrasi untuk menentukan pasar sentral dan pasar regional. Hasil pengujian stationarity menunjukkan bahwa pada umumnya harga beras stationar pada order 1, sedangkan hasil uji kointegrasi memperlihatkan bahwa tidak semua pasar yang letaknya berdekatan berintegrasi satu sama lain. Dari 56 kombinasi hanya terdapat 26 kombinasi pasar yang berkointegrasi. Data harga beras yang digunakan adalah harga perdagangan besar dari tahun 1979-1995. Hasil pengujian ini menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan kontrol harga yang dilaksanakan oleh BULOG tidak dapat mencegah terjadinya segmentasi pasar.EnglishThis article analyzes integration of rice markets using co integration test. The co integration bivariate system were estimated in both directions. Cointegration analysis based on the Engle and Granger model, namely CRDW and ADF, is applied. Granger (cause) analysis applied to co integrated markets, to find central and regional markets. Test results show that most of rice prices are stationary of order 1. It is concluded that there seems to be long run relationships between markets which are relatively close to each other. Percentage of cointegrated market for rice is 46 percent out of 56 combinations. This high cointegration mainly due to marketing system of rice which is strongly controlled by the government. Hence rice price is subject to a controlled trade regime and floor/ceiling price. Rice prices is represented by monthly wholesale price. The periode covered in this study is 1979-1995. It was concluded that BULOG\u27s Policies in controlling rice market to avoid market segmented did not work as expected

Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Terhadap Profitabilitas Dan Keunggulan Komparatif Agroindustri Minyak Kelapa Indonesia

EnglishCoconut oil product consitutes an important source of foreign exchanges to Indonesia. Trade liberalisation, however, forces Indonesia's coconut oil industry to have higher profitability as well as comparative advantage. In this connection, the present study aims : (i) to estimate the effects of changes in distorting to efficient policies, exchange rate and interest rate on the profitability and comparative advantage of Indonesia's crude copra oil (CCO) processing firms; and (ii) to suggest policy alternatives associated with the future Indonesia's CCO industry development. Using a Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach, it is concluded that the CCO processing firms is currently economically profitable and exhibits a high comparative advantage; hence, it is viable without government assistance. Rupiah appreciation and higher interest rate, however, would partially or jointly severely affect profitability as well as comparative advantage. It is suggested that in the distorted economy, the maximum annual interest rates needs to be maintained at 18-20 percent if rupiah appreciates from Rp. 10,000 to Rp. 7,500 per US$. In the efficient economy, on the other hand, the maximum interest rates may be specified at 50 percent if rupiah appreciates to Rp. 7500. Among the numerous vegetable oils, the coconut oil remains prospective. The distorting policies such as implisit or explisit export tax on output, import duty on packing material and subsidy on fuel, ought to be banned.IndonesianProduk minyak kelapa merupakan sumber devisa penting bagi Indonesia. Namun liberalisasi perdagangan menuntut industri minyak kelapa Indonesia mempunyai profitabilitas dan keunggulan komparatif yang makin tinggi. Sehubungan dengan itu, penelitian ini bertujuan: (i) Mengestimasi efek Perubahan kebijaksanaan dari distortif ke efisien, nilai tukar rupiah dan tingkat bunga bank terhadap profitabilitas dan keunggulan komparatif pabrik pengolahan minyak kopra kasar (crude copra oil/CCO ); dan ( ii) Memberikan saran alternatif kebijaksanaan berkaitan dengan pengembangan industri minyak kelapa di Indonesia di masa datang. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan analisis Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM), penelitian ini berkesimpulan bahwa pabrik pengolahan CCO di Indonesia secara ekonomi menguntungkan dan mempunyai keunggulan komparatif yang cukup tinggi sehingga mampu beroperasi tanpa bantuan pemerintah.Namun apresiasi nilai rupiah terhadap dolar AS dan naiknya tingkat bunga bank, baik secara sendiri-sendiri maupun simultan akan menurunkan profitabilitas dan keunggulan komparatif. Berdasarkan hasil analisis tersebut, disarankan agar dalam kondisi ekonomi yang masih terdistorsi, suku bunga bank maksimal perlu dipertahankan sekitar 18-20 persen per tahun jika nilai tukar rupiah menguat dari Rp. 10.000 menjadi Rp. 7.500 per dolar AS. Namun dalam kondisi ekonomi efisien, suku bunga bank maksimum adalah 50 persen per tahun jika rupiah menguat menjadi Rp. 7.500. Di antara berbagai jenis minyak nabati, minyak kelapa tetap prospektif di masa datang. Kebijaksanaan distortif seperti pengenaan pajak eksplisit atau pajak implisit terhadap ekspor CCO, pajak terhadap impor bahan kemasan dan subsidi bahan bakar minyak perlu dihilangkan

Outlook Indikator Makro Global dan Sektor Pertanian 2016-2019

Macroeconomic policies are important to consider in determining agricultural targets and policies. Thus, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of historical circumstances, current status, trends, and prospects of agricultural macro indicators. This study aims to forecast and to analyze the main macroeconomic indicators in the agricultural sector from 2016 to 2019. The study used secondary data and information. Projection was calculated using two alternative models, i.e. economic behavior and polynomial trend regression models. The results showed that after a slowdown in 2011-2014, Indonesia's economy rebounded in 2015-2016. GDP growth was expected 5,6 to 5,8% while inflation was 6,8 to 7,9% in 2016-2019. Agricultural GDP's growth in 2016-2019 was estimated around 3,5-3,7%/year. Agricultural exports and imports were expected to increase to 10%/year and 12%/year for the period of 2016-2019, respectively. Agriculture will become the economic anchor through increases in food production and industrial commodities, as well as managing generating-inflation commodities' prices

Dampak Penghapusan Subsidi Pupuk Terhadap Permintaan Pupuk Dan Produksi Padi Nasional

Maintaining rice selfsufficiency in the condition of fiscal austerity can be conducted through technological generation, efficiency improvement, or input subsidy reduction. The objectives of this study is to asses the impact of price liberalization of Urea, TSP, and other chemical fertilizer (KCI and ZA) to the application of those fertilizer and national rice production. The study used the combination of cross-section (five regions) and time series data of 15 years (1979-1993). There are four empirical models under considerations in this study, i.e: rice production function, and demand function of Urea, TSP, and other chemical fertilizers. The system equations of rice production and fertilizer demand functions are estimated simultaneously in order to have an efficient parameter estimates. The research findings indicated that fertilizer price liberalization had positive impact on the structural application of those fertilizers, in which the use of Urea and TSP decline and the use of other chemical fertilizer increases. The structural change of those fertilizer application have positive impact on yield and national rice production, at the magnitude of 5,1 percent. In order to maintain rice productivity (selfsufficiency) and efficient use of national resources, the reduction of Urea and TSP subsidy can be conducted in a faster rate than those ZA's and KCI's For larger rice production improvement, technological breakthrough is really needed in conjunction with managerial skill improvement of the farmers