Compensation potential, defined as the maximally achievable increase in predicted probability of species presence ΔP_(pres) under altered climate conditions, which could be obtained when modifying the respective variable from its recorded minimum (Min) towards the species’ optimum (Opt).

<p>Mean and 95% confidence interval are provided. The two variables that were modified in concert to show their combined compensation potential (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097718#pone-0097718-g004" target="_blank">Figure 4</a>) are highlighted in bold. (CC: capercaillie, HG: hazel grouse, TTW: three-toed woodpecker, PO: pygmy owl).</p><p>*for capercaillie.</p

Current conditions (2010) and predicted variable changes between 2010 and 2050 (ΔV 2050) (mean and standard deviation SD) calculated across all sampling plots (n = 4752).

<p>Only variables significant in the species’ models are considered. The changes in climate variables were directly obtained from the climate data (model: ECHAM5/CLM, scenario: A1B). Potential vegetation changes were derived from multiple regression models describing vegetation variables as a function of climate (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097718#pone.0097718.s009" target="_blank">Table S4</a>) which were calibrated under current (2010) and extrapolated to future (2050) climate conditions.</p

Predicted probability of species presence for (a) capercaillie, (b) hazel grouse, (c) three-toed woodpecker and (d) pygmy owl under current (2010, black) and future (2050, grey) climate conditions, modelled in dependence of the vegetation variable with the highest compensation potential, while holding all other variables constant at their empirical average.

<p>Dashed lines indicate the 95% confidence interval. Variable codes are given in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097718#pone-0097718-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>, response curves for all relevant vegetation variables are provided in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097718#pone.0097718.s002" target="_blank">Figure S2</a>–<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097718#pone.0097718.s005" target="_blank">S5</a>.</p

Study area (a) with the four mountain ranges [Black Forest (BF), Swiss Jura (J), Northern Prealps (NPA) and Central Eastern Alps (CEA)] and the spatial distribution of 1 km² grid cells with species’ presence (white) and absence (black).

<p>Within each grid cell, environmental variables were recorded at or in the surrounding of maximum 16 regularly distributed sampling plots (b), with only plots located in the forest (dark grey) considered in the analysis. At each plot, vegetation variables were recorded in the field at different reference areas (c), either across the whole plot (30×30 m), within a nested square (15×15 m), or within the two diagonal quarters of which (7.5×7.5 m). The variables and the reference area at which they were recorded are specified in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097718#pone-0097718-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>. Geodata: Switzerland: © Bundesamt für Landestopografie Swisstopo (Art. 30 GeoIV): License No.: 5704 000 000, Available at: <a href="http://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/internet/swisstopo/en/home/products/height/dhm25.html" target="_blank">http://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/internet/swisstopo/en/home/products/height/dhm25.html</a>; Germany: © Landesamt für Geoinformation und Landentwicklung Baden-Württemberg (LGL), License No.: 2851.9-1/19, Avaliable at: <a href="http://www.lgl-bw.de/lgl-internet/opencms/de/07_Produkte_und_Dienstleistungen/Geodaten/Digitale_Gelaendemodelle" target="_blank">http://www.lgl-bw.de/lgl-internet/opencms/de/07_Produkte_und_Dienstleistungen/Geodaten/Digitale_Gelaendemodelle</a>.</p

Number of grid cell pairs (1 km²) with species presence and absence selected in each of the mountain regions across the study area (BF: Black Forest, J: Swiss Jura, NPA: Northern Prealps, CEA: Central Eastern Alps).

<p>Number of grid cell pairs (1 km²) with species presence and absence selected in each of the mountain regions across the study area (BF: Black Forest, J: Swiss Jura, NPA: Northern Prealps, CEA: Central Eastern Alps).</p

Data from paper: "Land-use change in the past 40 years explains shifts in arthropod community traits"

Community weighted means and community means of four important traits of carabid and spider arthropods in Switzerland. These datasets were analyzed to support the findings in the paper "Land-use change in the past 40 years explains shifts in arthropod community traits". Please, read the ReadMe file and the Materials and Methods in the paper for more details about the variables used.</p