Model Averaging in Predictive Regressions

This paper considers forecast combination in a predictive regression. We construct the point forecast by combining predictions from all possible linear regression models given a set of potentially relevant predictors. We derive the asymptotic risk of least squares averaging estimators in a local asymptotic framework. We then develop a frequentist model averaging criterion, an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the asymptotic risk, to select forecast weights. Monte Carlo simulations show that our averaging estimator compares favorably with alternative methods such as weighted AIC, weighted BIC, Mallows model averaging, and jackknife model averaging. The proposed method is applied to stock return predictions

Model Averaging in Predictive Regressions

This paper considers forecast combination in a predictive regression. We construct the point forecast by combining predictions from all possible linear regression models given a set of potentially relevant predictors. We derive the asymptotic risk of least squares averaging estimators in a local asymptotic framework. We then develop a frequentist model averaging criterion, an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the asymptotic risk, to select forecast weights. Monte Carlo simulations show that our averaging estimator compares favorably with alternative methods such as weighted AIC, weighted BIC, Mallows model averaging, and jackknife model averaging. The proposed method is applied to stock return predictions

Model Averaging in Predictive Regressions

This paper considers forecast combination in a predictive regression. We construct the point forecast by combining predictions from all possible linear regression models given a set of potentially relevant predictors. We propose a frequentist model averaging criterion, an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the mean squared forecast error (MSFE), to select forecast weights. In contrast to the existing literature, we derive the MSFE in a local asymptotic framework without the i.i.d. normal assumption. This result allows us to decompose the MSFE into the bias and variance components and also to account for the correlations between candidate models. Monte Carlo simulations show that our averaging estimator has much lower MSFE than alternative methods such as weighted AIC, weighted BIC, Mallows model averaging, and jackknife model averaging. We apply the proposed method to stock return predictions

Why Differentiation Strategy Fails?

Differentiation strategy has been considered critical for securing a competitive advantage. However, not all firms can create competitive advantages through differentiation. In this paper, we draw on a Taiwanese hotel, restaurant, and TV program provider to show why differentiation strategy fails. On the basis of these three cases, three failed differentiation strategies are proposed and a framework for implementing a differentiation strategy is provided. Finally, we present the discussion and conclusions for the theory and practice of differentiation strategy

New Insights on 30 Dor B Revealed by High-Quality Multi-wavelength Observations

The supernova remnant (SNR) 30 Dor B is associated with the \ion{H}{2} region ionized by the OB association LH99. The complex interstellar environment has made it difficult to study the physical structure of this SNR. We have used Hubble Space Telescope H$\alpha$ images to identify SNR shocks and deep Chandra X-ray observations to detect faint diffuse emission. We find that 30 Dor B hosts three zones with very different X-ray surface brightnesses and nebular kinematics that are characteristic of SNRs in different interstellar environments and/or evolutionary stages. The ASKAP 888 MHz map of 30 Dor B shows counterparts to all X-ray emission features except the faint halo. The ASKAP 888 MHz and 1420 MHz observations are used to produce a spectral index map, but its interpretation is complicated by the background thermal emission and the pulsar PSR J0537$-$6910's flat spectral index. The stellar population in the vicinity of 30 Dor B indicates a continuous star formation in the past 8--10 Myr. The observed very massive stars in LH99 cannot be coeval with the progenitor of 30 Dor B's pulsar. Adopting the pulsar's spin-down timescale, 5000 yr, as the age of the SNR, the X-ray shell would be expanding at $\sim$4000 km\,s$^{-1}$ and the post-shock temperature would be 1--2 orders of magnitude higher than that indicated by the X-ray spectra. Thus, the bright central region of 30 Dor B and the X-ray shell requires two separate SN events, and the faint diffuse X-ray halo perhaps other older SN events

Outcomes and characteristics of ertapenem-nonsusceptible Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteremia at a university hospital in Northern Taiwan: A matched case-control study

Background and purposeCarbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae is an emerging problem worldwide. The object of this study was to investigate the risk factors, characteristics and outcomes of ertapenem-nonsusceptible K pneumoniae (ENSKp) bacteremia.MethodsWe conducted a 1:2 ratio matched case-control study. The controls were randomly selected among patients with ertapenem-susceptible K pneumoniae (ESKp) bacteremia and were matched with ENSKp cases for bacteremia.ResultsSeventy-five patients were included in this study (25 cases and 50 controls). Bivariate analysis showed that prior exposure to either β-Lactam/β-Lactam-lactamase inhibitors (p = 0.008) or 4th generation cephalosporins (p < 0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (p = 0.001), acute renal failure (p = 0.021), chronic kidney disease without dialysis (p = 0.021), recent hospital stay (p = 0.016), intensive care unit stay (p = 0.002), mechanical ventilation (p = 0.003), central venous catheter placement (p = 0.016), Foley indwelling (p = 0.022), polymicrobial bacteremia (p = 0.003) and higher Pittsburgh bacteremia score (p < 0.001) were associated with ENSKp bacteremia. The multivariate analysis showed that prior exposure to 4th generation cephalosporins (odds ratio [OR], 28.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.92–269.85; p = 0.004), COPD (OR, 21.38; 95% CI, 2.95–154.92; p = 0.002) and higher Pittsburgh bacteremia score (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.10–1.66; p = 0.004) were independent factors for ENSKp bacteremia. ENSKp bacteremia had a higher 14-day mortality rate than ESKp bacteremia (44.0% vs. 22.0%; p = 0.049). The overall in-hospital mortality rates for these two groups were 60.0% and 40.0% respectively (p = 0.102).ConclusionENSKp bacteremia had a poor outcome and the risk factors were prior exposure of 4th generation cephalosporins, COPD and higher Pittsburgh bacteremia score. Antibiotic stewardship may be the solution for the preventive strategy

Hybrid OpenMP/AVX Acceleration of a Higher Order Quiet Direct Simulation Method for the Euler Equations

AbstractPresented is the Quiet Direct Simulation (QDS) applied to parallel computation using a hybrid OpenMP/AVX parallelization paradigm. Due to the high locality of the QDS scheme, the method has been successfully applied to parallel computation using Graphics Processing Units (GPU) – we show here that the same principles which allow high performance on GPU devices also permit high performance when using Advanced Vector eXtensions (AVX). Furthermore, since modern CPU's employ a large number of cores, we can further extend the performance by using AVX on each available CPU core using shared memory (OpenMP) parallelization. We present a simple direction- split higher order extension to the QDS method, and then apply it to AVX through the use of intrinsic functions in the flux computation and state computation modules. High performance is obtained by ensuring that all flux computations are performed using only AVX intrinsic functions – no computations are performed in serial. Through this approach, a single workstation with 2x Xeon CPU's (16 physical cores) allows a performance increase of over 177 times that of a single core alone. We also demonstrate that built-in optimization does not fully exploit AVX parallelization through the examination of assembly code